Probabilistic programs with mixed support (both continuous and discrete latent random variables) commonly appear in many probabilistic programming systems (PPSs). However, the existence of the discrete random variables prohibits many basic gradient-based inference engines, which makes the inference procedure on such models particularly challenging. Existing PPSs either require the user to manually marginalize out the discrete variables or to perform a composing inference by running inference separately on discrete and continuous variables. The former is infeasible in most cases whereas the latter has some fundamental shortcomings. We present a novel approach to run inference efficiently and robustly in such programs using stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo family of algorithms. We compare our stochastic gradient-based inference algorithm against conventional baselines in several important cases of probabilistic programs with mixed support, and demonstrate that it outperforms existing composing inference baselines and works almost as well as inference in marginalized versions of the programs, but with less programming effort and at a lower computation cost.
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；KAIST（韩国科学技术院）；University of British Columbia（英属哥伦比亚大学）
We develop a new Low-level, First-order Probabilistic Programming Language (LF-PPL) suited for models containing a mix of continuous, discrete, and/or piecewise-continuous variables. The key success of this language and its compilation scheme is in its ability to automatically distinguish parameters the density function is discontinuous with respect to, while further providing runtime checks for boundary crossings. This enables the introduction of new inference engines that are able to exploit gradient information, while remaining efficient for models which are not everywhere differentiable. W…
Munich Data Science Institute（慕尼黑数据科学研究所）；Technical University Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）
We propose a new differentiable probabilistic model over DAGs (DP-DAG). DP-DAG allows fast and differentiable DAG sampling suited to continuous optimization. To this end, DP-DAG samples a DAG by successively (1) sampling a linear ordering of the node and (2) sampling edges consistent with the sampled linear ordering. We further propose VI-DP-DAG, a new method for DAG learning from observational data which combines DP-DAG with variational inference. Hence,VI-DP-DAG approximates the posterior probability over DAG edges given the observed data. VI-DP-DAG is guaranteed to output a valid DAG at any…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is arguably the dominant statistical inference algorithm used in most popular "first-order differentiable" Probabilistic Programming Languages (PPLs). However, the fact that HMC uses derivative information causes complications when the target distribution is non-differentiable with respect to one or more of the latent variables. In this paper, we show how to use extensions to HMC to perform inference in probabilistic programs that contain discontinuities. To do this, we design a Simple first-order Probabilistic Programming Language (SPPL) that contains a sufficien…
This paper is concerned about a learning algorithm for a probabilistic model of spiking neural networks (SNNs). Jimenez Rezende & Gerstner (2014) proposed a stochastic variational inference algorithm to train SNNs with hidden neurons. The algorithm updates the variational distribution using the score function gradient estimator, whose high variance often impedes the whole learning algorithm. This paper presents an alternative gradient estimator for SNNs based on the path-wise gradient estimator. The main technical difficulty is a lack of a general method to differentiate a realization of an ar…
University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）
We treat projective dependency trees as latent variables in our probabilistic model and induce them in such a way as to be beneficial for a downstream task, without relying on any direct tree supervision. Our approach relies on Gumbel perturbations and differentiable dynamic programming. Unlike previous approaches to latent tree learning, we stochastically sample global structures and our parser is fully differentiable. We illustrate its effectiveness on sentiment analysis and natural language inference tasks. We also study its properties on a synthetic structure induction task. Ablation studi…
We introduce a novel way to incorporate prior information into (semi-) supervised non-negative matrix factorization, which we call differentiable dictionary search. It enables general, highly flexible and principled modelling of mixtures where non-linear sources are linearly mixed. We study its behavior on an audio decomposition task, and conduct an extensive, highly controlled study of its modelling capabilities.
Google Research（谷歌研究院）；INRIA（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；ENS（巴黎高等师范学院）；PSL Research University（巴黎文理研究大学）
Machine learning pipelines often rely on optimization procedures to make discrete decisions (e.g., sorting, picking closest neighbors, or shortest paths). Although these discrete decisions are easily computed, they break the back-propagation of computational graphs. In order to expand the scope of learning problems that can be solved in an end-to-end fashion, we propose a systematic method to transform optimizers into operations that are differentiable and never locally constant. Our approach relies on stochastically perturbed optimizers, and can be used readily together with existing solvers.…
We study the differential properties of higher-order statistical probabilistic programs with recursion and conditioning. Our starting point is an open problem posed by Hongseok Yang: what class of statistical probabilistic programs have densities that are differentiable almost everywhere? To formalise the problem, we consider Statistical PCF (SPCF), an extension of call-by-value PCF with real numbers, and constructs for sampling and conditioning. We give SPCF a sampling-style operational semantics a la Borgstrom et al., and study the associated weight (commonly referred to as the density) func…
Generating novel molecules with optimal properties is a crucial step in many industries such as drug discovery. Recently, deep generative models have shown a promising way of performing de-novo molecular design. Although graph generative models are currently available they either have a graph size dependency in their number of parameters, limiting their use to only very small graphs or are formulated as a sequence of discrete actions needed to construct a graph, making the output graph non-differentiable w.r.t the model parameters, therefore preventing them to be used in scenarios such as cond…
Parametric quantile regressions are a useful tool for creating probabilistic energy forecasts. Nonetheless, since classical quantile regressions are trained using a non-differentiable cost function, their creation using complex data mining techniques (e.g., artificial neural networks) may be complicated. This article presents a method that uses a new nearest neighbors quantile filter to obtain quantile regressions independently of the utilized data mining technique and without the non-differentiable cost function. Thereafter, a validation of the presented method using the dataset of the Global…
We design new visual illusions by finding "adversarial examples" for principled models of human perception -- specifically, for probabilistic models, which treat vision as Bayesian inference. To perform this search efficiently, we design a differentiable probabilistic programming language, whose API exposes MCMC inference as a first-class differentiable function. We demonstrate our method by automatically creating illusions for three features of human vision: color constancy, size constancy, and face perception.
We present a Bayesian approach to machine learning with probabilistic programs. In our approach, training on available data is implemented as inference on a hierarchical model. The posterior distribution of model parameters is then used to \textit{stochastically condition} a complementary model, such that inference on new data yields the same posterior distribution of latent parameters corresponding to the new data as inference on a hierachical model on the combination of both previously available and new data, at a lower computation cost. We frame the approach as a design pattern of probabili…
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；NVIDIA（英伟达）
To accurately reproduce measurements from the real world, simulators need to have an adequate model of the physical system and require the parameters of the model be identified. We address the latter problem of estimating parameters through a Bayesian inference approach that approximates a posterior distribution over simulation parameters given real sensor measurements. By extending the commonly used Gaussian likelihood model for trajectories via the multiple-shooting formulation, our chosen particle-based inference algorithm Stein Variational Gradient Descent is able to identify highly nonlin…
ANDRE: An Attention-based Neuro-symbolic Differentiable Rule Extractor for Inductive Logic Programming
Dept. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, George Washington University, USA（机械与航空航天工程系，乔治华盛顿大学）；Dept. of Mechanical Engineering Sciences, University of Surrey, UK（机械工程科学系，萨里大学）
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；York University（约克大学）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）
Scientific imaging techniques such as optical and electron microscopy and computed tomography (CT) scanning are used to study the 3D structure of an object through 2D observations. These observations are related to the original 3D object through orthogonal integral projections. For common 3D reconstruction algorithms, computational efficiency requires the modeling of the 3D structures to take place in Fourier space by applying the Fourier slice theorem. At present, it is unclear how to differentiate through the projection operator, and hence current learning algorithms can not rely on gradient…
ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；MPI for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Bayesian structure learning allows inferring Bayesian network structure from data while reasoning about the epistemic uncertainty -- a key element towards enabling active causal discovery and designing interventions in real world systems. In this work, we propose a general, fully differentiable framework for Bayesian structure learning (DiBS) that operates in the continuous space of a latent probabilistic graph representation. Contrary to existing work, DiBS is agnostic to the form of the local conditional distributions and allows for joint posterior inference of both the graph structure and t…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；INRIA Paris（法国国家信息与自动化研究所巴黎分部）；PSL University（巴黎文理研究大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；KAIST（韩国科学技术院）；Institute for Basic Science (IBS)（基础科学研究院）
We present a static analysis for discovering differentiable or more generally smooth parts of a given probabilistic program, and show how the analysis can be used to improve the pathwise gradient estimator, one of the most popular methods for posterior inference and model learning. Our improvement increases the scope of the estimator from differentiable models to non-differentiable ones without requiring manual intervention of the user; the improved estimator automatically identifies differentiable parts of a given probabilistic program using our static analysis, and applies the pathwise gradi…
Large knowledge bases (KBs) are useful in many tasks, but it is unclear how to integrate this sort of knowledge into "deep" gradient-based learning systems. To address this problem, we describe a probabilistic deductive database, called TensorLog, in which reasoning uses a differentiable process. In TensorLog, each clause in a logical theory is first converted into certain type of factor graph. Then, for each type of query to the factor graph, the message-passing steps required to perform belief propagation (BP) are "unrolled" into a function, which is differentiable. We show that these functi…
High-dimensional inference for the $γ$-ray sky with differentiable programming
Faculty of Computing；Data Sciences, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA；The NSF AI Institute for Artificial Intelligence；Center for Theoretical Physics -- a Leinweber Institute, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA；Department of Physics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA；Center for Theoretical Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA；Trottier Space Institute \& Department of Physics, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 2T8, Canada；Department of Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) are hugely popular for solving tabular data problems. However, practitioners are not only interested in point predictions, but also in probabilistic predictions in order to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions. Creating such probabilistic predictions is difficult with existing GBM-based solutions: they either require training multiple models or they become too computationally expensive to be useful for large-scale settings. We propose Probabilistic Gradient Boosting Machines (PGBM), a method to create probabilistic predictions with a single ensemble of d…
It is well known that reinforcement learning can be cast as inference in an appropriate probabilistic model. However, this commonly involves introducing a distribution over agent trajectories with probabilities proportional to exponentiated rewards. In this work, we formulate reinforcement learning as Bayesian inference without resorting to rewards, and show that rewards are derived from agent's preferences, rather than the other way around. We argue that agent preferences should be specified stochastically rather than deterministically. Reinforcement learning via inference with stochastic pre…
Aalto University（阿尔托大学）；NVIDIA AI Technology Center（英伟达人工智能技术中心）；University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）；University of Helsinki（赫尔辛基大学）
We present d3p, a software package designed to help fielding runtime efficient widely-applicable Bayesian inference under differential privacy guarantees. d3p achieves general applicability to a wide range of probabilistic modelling problems by implementing the differentially private variational inference algorithm, allowing users to fit any parametric probabilistic model with a differentiable density function. d3p adopts the probabilistic programming paradigm as a powerful way for the user to flexibly define such models. We demonstrate the use of our software on a hierarchical logistic regres…
Volkswagen Group（大众集团）；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）
We introduce PRISM, a method for real-time filtering in a probabilistic generative model of agent motion and visual perception. Previous approaches either lack uncertainty estimates for the map and agent state, do not run in real-time, do not have a dense scene representation or do not model agent dynamics. Our solution reconciles all of these aspects. We start from a predefined state-space model which combines differentiable rendering and 6-DoF dynamics. Probabilistic inference in this model amounts to simultaneous localisation and mapping (SLAM) and is intractable. We use a series of approxi…
Diffusion Tempering Improves Parameter Estimation with Probabilistic Integrators for Ordinary Differential Equations
AI Center, University of Tübingen（图宾根大学AI中心）；Hertie Institute for AI in Brain Health, University of Tübingen（图宾根大学赫蒂脑健康人工智能研究所）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Tractable Representation Learning with Probabilistic Circuits
Technische Universität Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；University of Texas, Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Universität Bremen（不来梅大学）；University of Texas at Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校）
