领土和多式联运政策的相应LCA：方法和应用于巴黎自由浮动的电动滑板车中断
Consequential LCA for territorial and multimodal transportation policies: method and application to the free-floating e-scooter disruption in Paris
摘要：
由于缺乏适当的评估方法，城市交通中断对环境的间接影响往往被忽视。间接生命周期评估（CLCA）是一种方法，以捕捉这些中断的整个因果链的环境后果，但从来没有适应在城市规模的交通中断。本文提出了一个数学形式化的CLCA适用于领土流动性的变化。该方法被应用于量化自由浮动电动滑板车（FFES）在巴黎的突破对气候变化的影响。一个FFES用户调查进行估计由于FFES的模态转换。所有相关巴黎模式的出行替代都被考虑在内-个人或共享自行车和摩托车，私家车，出租车和叫车，公共汽车，有轨电车，地铁和RER（巴黎大都市区大众快速交通系统）。所有这些巴黎模式都是首次使用LCA进行评估。最终结果估计，在一年多的时间里，FFES在假设100万用户的情况下产生了额外的1.3万吨二氧化碳当量，主要是由于来自低排放模式的重大转变（60%来自地铁和RER，22%来自活跃模式）。建议，以提高他们的碳足迹。情景分析表明，增加寿命里程不足以实现正平衡：还需要大幅减少维修排放。一项将法国的电力结构转换为其他11个国家的电力结构的敏感性分析表明，FFES在电力碳强度较高的类似大都市地区（如德国和中国）的气候变化影响更好。最后，讨论了该方法的新颖性和局限性，以及电动滑板车，微型移动和共享车辆对可持续移动的结果和作用。
英文摘要：
The indirect environmental impacts of transport disruptions in urban mobility are frequently overlooked due to a lack of appropriate assessment methods. Consequential Life Cycle Assessment (CLCA) is a method to capture the environmental consequences of the entire cause and effect chain of these disruptions but has never been adapted to transportat disruption at the city scale. This paper proposes a mathematical formalization of CLCA applied to a territorial mobility change. The method is applied to quantify the impact on climate change of the breakthrough of free-floating e-scooters (FFES) in Paris. A FFES user survey is conducted to estimate the modal shifts due to FFES. Trip substitutions from all the Parisian modes concerned are considered - personal or shared bicycles and motor scooters, private car, taxi and ride-hailing, bus, streetcar, metro and RER (the Paris metropolitan area mass rapid transit system). All these Parisian modes are assessed for the first time using LCA. Final results estimate that over one year, the FFES generated an extra thirteen thousand tons of CO2eq under an assumption of one million users, mainly due to major shifts coming from lower-emitting modes (60% from the metro and the RER, 22% from active modes). Recommendations are given to enhance their carbon footprint. A scenario analysis shows that increasing the lifetime mileage is insufficient to get a positive balance: reducing drastically servicing emissions is also required. A sensitivity analysis switching the French electricity mix for eleven other country mixes suggests a better climate change effect of the FFES in similar metropolitan areas with higher electricity carbon intensity, such as in Germany and China. Finally, the novelty and the limits of the method are discussed, as well as the results and the role of e-scooters, micromobility, and shared vehicles towards a sustainable mobility.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
