A Minimax Probability Machine for Non-Decomposable Performance Measures
Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院自动化研究所）；School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学人工智能学院）；Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院）；School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学数学科学学院）
Imbalanced classification tasks are widespread in many real-world applications. For such classification tasks, in comparison with the accuracy rate, it is usually much more appropriate to use non-decomposable performance measures such as the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) and the $F_β$ measure as the classification criterion since the label class is imbalanced. On the other hand, the minimax probability machine is a popular method for binary classification problems and aims at learning a linear classifier by maximizing the accuracy rate, which makes it unsuitable to deal with imbalanced classification tasks. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new minimax probability machine for the $F_β$ measure, called MPMF, which can be used to deal with imbalanced classification tasks. A brief discussion is also given on how to extend the MPMF model for several other non-decomposable performance measures listed in the paper. To solve the MPMF model effectively, we derive its equivalent form which can then be solved by an alternating descent method to learn a linear classifier. Further, the kernel trick is employed to derive a nonlinear MPMF model to learn a nonlinear classifier. Several experiments on real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our new model.
Previous studies have used a specific success metric within an algorithmic search framework to prove machine learning impossibility results. However, this specific success metric prevents us from applying these results on other forms of machine learning, e.g. transfer learning. We define decomposable metrics as a category of success metrics for search problems which can be expressed as a linear operation on a probability distribution to solve this issue. Using an arbitrary decomposable metric to measure the success of a search, we demonstrate theorems which bound success in various ways, gener…
University of Texas, Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
We provide a general theoretical analysis of expected out-of-sample utility, also referred to as decision-theoretic classification, for non-decomposable binary classification metrics such as F-measure and Jaccard coefficient. Our key result is that the expected out-of-sample utility for many performance metrics is provably optimized by a classifier which is equivalent to a signed thresholding of the conditional probability of the positive class. Our analysis bridges a gap in the literature on binary classification, revealed in light of recent results for non-decomposable metrics in population …
University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（电子科技大学）；Tencent（腾讯）；Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University（西交利物浦大学）；Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室）
Deep neural networks enjoy a powerful representation and have proven effective in a number of applications. However, recent advances show that deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial attacks incurred by the so-called adversarial examples. Although the adversarial example is only slightly different from the input sample, the neural network classifies it as the wrong class. In order to alleviate this problem, we propose the Deep Minimax Probability Machine (DeepMPM), which applies MPM to deep neural networks in an end-to-end fashion. In a worst-case scenario, MPM tries to minimize an …
University of Chicago, Booth School of Business（芝加哥大学布斯商学院）
We study the minimax optimal rate for estimating the Wasserstein-$1$ metric between two unknown probability measures based on $n$ i.i.d. empirical samples from them. We show that estimating the Wasserstein metric itself between probability measures, is not significantly easier than estimating the probability measures under the Wasserstein metric. We prove that the minimax optimal rates for these two problems are multiplicatively equivalent, up to a $\log \log (n)/\log (n)$ factor.
Probabilistic circuits (PCs) represent a probability distribution as a computational graph. Enforcing structural properties on these graphs guarantees that several inference scenarios become tractable. Among these properties, structured decomposability is a particularly appealing one: it enables the efficient and exact computations of the probability of complex logical formulas, and can be used to reason about the expected output of certain predictive models under missing data. This paper proposes Strudel, a simple, fast and accurate learning algorithm for structured-decomposable PCs. Compared…
The Wasserstein metric is an important measure of distance between probability distributions, with applications in machine learning, statistics, probability theory, and data analysis. This paper provides upper and lower bounds on statistical minimax rates for the problem of estimating a probability distribution under Wasserstein loss, using only metric properties, such as covering and packing numbers, of the sample space, and weak moment assumptions on the probability distributions.
We consider the problem of estimating the mean of a distribution supported by the $k$-dimensional probability simplex in the setting where an $\varepsilon$ fraction of observations are subject to adversarial corruption. A simple particular example is the problem of estimating the distribution of a discrete random variable. Assuming that the discrete variable takes $k$ values, the unknown parameter $\boldsymbol θ$ is a $k$-dimensional vector belonging to the probability simplex. We first describe various settings of contamination and discuss the relation between these settings. We then establis…
We consider the problem of designing minimax estimators for estimating the parameters of a probability distribution. Unlike classical approaches such as the MLE and minimum distance estimators, we consider an algorithmic approach for constructing such estimators. We view the problem of designing minimax estimators as finding a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium of a zero-sum game. By leveraging recent results in online learning with non-convex losses, we provide a general algorithm for finding a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium of general non-convex non-concave zero-sum games. Our algorithm requir…
New York University（纽约大学）；Kyoto University（京都大学）；RIKEN AIP（理化学研究所人工智能研究中心）
We consider the fixed-budget best arm identification problem where the goal is to find the arm of the largest mean with a fixed number of samples. It is known that the probability of misidentifying the best arm is exponentially small to the number of rounds. However, limited characterizations have been discussed on the rate (exponent) of this value. In this paper, we characterize the minimax optimal rate as a result of an optimization over all possible parameters. We introduce two rates, $R^{\mathrm{go}}$ and $R^{\mathrm{go}}_{\infty}$, corresponding to lower bounds on the probability of misid…
Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology（斯科尔科沃科学技术研究院）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
Wasserstein barycenters provide a geometric notion of the weighted average of probability measures based on optimal transport. In this paper, we present a scalable algorithm to compute Wasserstein-2 barycenters given sample access to the input measures, which are not restricted to being discrete. While past approaches rely on entropic or quadratic regularization, we employ input convex neural networks and cycle-consistency regularization to avoid introducing bias. As a result, our approach does not resort to minimax optimization. We provide theoretical analysis on error bounds as well as empir…
Rejection Sampling is a fundamental Monte-Carlo method. It is used to sample from distributions admitting a probability density function which can be evaluated exactly at any given point, albeit at a high computational cost. However, without proper tuning, this technique implies a high rejection rate. Several methods have been explored to cope with this problem, based on the principle of adaptively estimating the density by a simpler function, using the information of the previous samples. Most of them either rely on strong assumptions on the form of the density, or do not offer any theoretica…
Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)（巴斯克应用数学中心（BCAM））；IKERBASQUE-Basque Foundation for Science（IKERBASQUE-巴斯克科学基金会）；Federal University of Bahia（巴伊亚联邦大学）；National Research Institute for Mathematics and Computer Science (CWI)（国家数学与计算机科学研究院（CWI））
k Nearest Neighbor (kNN) method is a simple and popular statistical method for classification and regression. For both classification and regression problems, existing works have shown that, if the distribution of the feature vector has bounded support and the probability density function is bounded away from zero in its support, the convergence rate of the standard kNN method, in which k is the same for all test samples, is minimax optimal. On the contrary, if the distribution has unbounded support, we show that there is a gap between the convergence rate achieved by the standard kNN method a…
