arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2102.11076stat.MLcs.LGecon.EMmath.STstat.TH
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核岭Riesz表示子:泛化性、误设定与反事实有效维度

Kernel Ridge Riesz Representers: Generalization, Mis-specification, and the Counterfactual Effective Dimension

Harvard University(哈佛大学)

Rahul Singh

AI总结:

本文将核平衡权重重新解释为核岭Riesz表示子(KRRR),通过反事实有效维度刻画解决泛化误差、特征误设定及异质性效应推断问题,并应用于401(k)资格对资产影响的因果不确定性量化。

摘要:

核平衡权重基于在特征空间中平衡处理组与未处理组协变量的思想,通常结合岭正则化,为平均处理效应提供置信区间。以往关于经典核岭平衡权重的研究存在若干局限:(i) 未阐明平衡权重的泛化误差;(ii) 通常要求特征被正确设定;(iii) 仅对平均效应论证高斯近似。我将核平衡权重解释为核岭Riesz表示子(KRRR),并通过反事实有效维度的新刻画来解决这些局限。KRRR是核岭回归与核岭平衡权重的精确推广。我证明了与核岭回归类似的强性质:控制泛化误差的总体$L_2$收敛速率,以及可进行插值的独立闭式解。该框架放宽了底层回归模型须由特征正确设定的严格假设。它将高斯近似从平均效应扩展到异质性效应,为因果函数论证置信集。我使用KRRR量化按年龄划分的401(k)资格对资产的异质性处理效应的不确定性。

英文摘要:

Kernel balancing weights provide confidence intervals for average treatment effects, based on the idea of balancing covariates for the treated group and untreated group in feature space, often with ridge regularization. Previous works on the classical kernel ridge balancing weights have certain limitations: (i) not articulating generalization error for the balancing weights, (ii) typically requiring correct specification of features, and (iii) justifying Gaussian approximation for only average effects. I interpret kernel balancing weights as kernel ridge Riesz representers (KRRR) and address these limitations via a new characterization of the counterfactual effective dimension. KRRR is an exact generalization of kernel ridge regression and kernel ridge balancing weights. I prove strong properties similar to kernel ridge regression: population $L_2$ rates controlling generalization error, and a standalone closed form solution that can interpolate. The framework relaxes the stringent assumption that the underlying regression model is correctly specified by the features. It extends Gaussian approximation beyond average effects to heterogeneous effects, justifying confidence sets for causal functions. I use KRRR to quantify uncertainty for heterogeneous treatment effects, by age, of 401(k) eligibility on assets.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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