Elena Castilla, Pedro J. Chocano
Robust estimators and Wald-type tests are developed for the multinomial logistic regression based on $ϕ$-divergence measures. The robustness of the proposed estimators and tests is proved through the study of their influence functions and it is also illustrated with two numerical examples and an extensive simulation study.
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We consider optimal designs for general multinomial logistic models, which cover baseline-category, cumulative, adjacent-categories, and continuation-ratio logit models, with proportional odds, non-proportional odds, or partial proportional odds assumption. We derive the corresponding Fisher information matrices in three different forms to facilitate their calculations, determine the conditions for their positive definiteness, and search for optimal designs. We conclude that, unlike the designs for binary responses, a feasible design for a multinomial logistic model may contain less experiment…
Multinomial Logistic Regression: Asymptotic Normality on Null Covariates in High-Dimensions
本文在高维情形下建立了多项逻辑回归MLE在零协变量上的渐近正态性与卡方结果，并据此提出特征显著性检验方法，通过模拟验证了其有效性。
This paper considers the Liu estimator in the multinomial logistic regression model. We propose some different estimators of the biasing parameter. The mean square error (MSE) is considered as the performance criterion. In order to compare the performance of the estimators, we performed a Monte Carlo simulation study. According to the results of the simulation study, we found that increasing the correlation between the independent variables and the number of regressors has a negative effect on the MSE. However, when the sample size increases the MSE decreases even when the correlation between …
In this paper we consider high-dimensional multiclass classification by sparse multinomial logistic regression. We propose first a feature selection procedure based on penalized maximum likelihood with a complexity penalty on the model size and derive the nonasymptotic bounds for misclassification excess risk of the resulting classifier. We establish also their tightness by deriving the corresponding minimax lower bounds. In particular, we show that there exist two regimes corresponding to small and large number of classes. The bounds can be reduced under the additional low noise condition. To…
A robust and sparse estimator for multinomial regression is proposed for high dimensional data. Robustness of the estimator is achieved by trimming the observations, and sparsity of the estimator is obtained by the elastic net penalty, which is a mixture of $L_1$ and $L_2$ penalties. From this point of view, the proposed estimator is an extension of the enet-LTS estimator \citep{Kurnaz18} for linear and logistic regression to the multinomial regression setting. After introducing an algorithm for its computation, a simulation study is conducted to show the performance in comparison to the non-r…
Improving Minimax Estimation Rates for Contaminated Mixture of Multinomial Logistic Experts via Expert Heterogeneity
本文通过分析受污染的混合多项逻辑专家模型，揭示专家异质性在提升参数估计速率和样本效率方面的优势。
In tropical regions, populations continue to suffer morbidity and mortality from malaria and arboviral diseases. In Kedougou (Senegal), these illnesses are all endemic due to the climate and its geographical position. The co-circulation of malaria parasites and arboviruses can explain the observation of coinfected cases. Indeed there is strong resemblance in symptoms between these diseases making problematic targeted medical care of coinfected cases. This is due to the fact that the origin of illness is not obviously known. Some cases could be immunized against one or the other of the pathogen…
Enjoying Non-linearity in Multinomial Logistic Bandits: A Minimax-Optimal Algorithm
本文提出了一种在多项逻辑老虎机问题中利用非线性的最小最大最优算法，通过引入问题依赖的常数κ*，改进了遗憾界并证明了算法的最优性。
Fast Model Selection and Stable Optimization for Softmax-Gated Multinomial-Logistic Mixture of Experts Models
本文提出了一种基于softmax门控多项式-对数混合专家模型的快速模型选择与稳定优化方法，通过批量MM算法和树状图适应技术，实现了高效的模型训练和参数恢复。
This short note is to point the reader to notice that the proof of high dimensional asymptotic normality of MLE estimator for logistic regression under the regime $p_n=o(n)$ given in paper: "Maximum likelihood estimation in logistic regression models with a diverging number of covariates. Electronic Journal of Statistics, 6, 1838-1846." is wrong.
Matching, the stratification of observations, is of primary importance for the analysis of observational studies. We show that the score test of conditional logistic regression and the paired Student/Hotelling test, two tests for paired data, are asymptotically equivalent.
This paper is devoted to model selection in logistic regression. We extend the model selection principle introduced by Birgé and Massart (2001) to logistic regression model. This selection is done by using penalized maximum likelihood criteria. We propose in this context a completely data-driven criteria based on the slope heuristics. We prove non asymptotic oracle inequalities for selected estimators. Theoretical results are illustrated through simulation studies.
Robust estimation of parameters in logistic regression via solving the Cramer-von Mises type L2 optimization problem
本文通过求解Cramer-von Mises类型L2优化问题，提出了一种稳健估计逻辑回归参数的新方法，并研究了其渐近性质。
It is known that when the multicollinearity exists in the logistic regression model, variance of maximum likelihood estimator is unstable. As a remedy, in the context of biased shrinkage ridge estimation, Chang (2015) introduced an almost unbiased Liu estimator in the logistic regression model. Making use of his approach, when some prior knowledge in the form of linear restrictions are also available, we introduce a restricted almost unbiased Liu estimator in the logistic regression model. Statistical properties of this newly defined estimator are derived and some comparison result are also pr…
Logistic regression with unknown sizes has many important applications in biological and medical sciences. All models about this problem in the literature are parametric ones. A semiparametric regression model is proposed. This model incorporates overdispersion due to the variation of sizes, and allows general dose-response relations. An Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm is provided to maximize the log likelihood. The bootstrap method can be used to construct confidence intervals for regression coefficients. Simulation is performed to study the behavior of the proposed model. Two …
To address the problem of multicollinearity in the logistic regression model, in this paper we propose a new estimator called Stochastic restricted almost unbiased logistic Liu-estimator (SRAULLE) when the prior information is available in the form of stochastic linear restrictions. A Monte Carlo simulation study was carried out to compare the performance of the proposed estimator with some existing estimators in the scalar mean squared error (SMSE) sense. Finally, a real data example was given to appraise the performance of the estimators.
Estimation for the log-logistic and Weibull distributions can be performed by using the equations used for probability plotting. The equations leads to highly heteroscedastic regression. Exact expressions for the variances of the residuals are derived which can be used to perform weighted regression. In large samples maximum likelihood performs best, but it is shown that in smaller samples the weighted regression outperforms maximum likelihood estimation with respect to bias and mean square error.
The logistic regression model is the most popular model for analyzing binary data. In the absence of any prior information, an improper flat prior is often used for the regression coefficients in Bayesian logistic regression models. The resulting intractable posterior density can be explored by running Polson et al.'s (2013) data augmentation (DA) algorithm. In this paper, we establish that the Markov chain underlying Polson et al.'s (2013) DA algorithm is geometrically ergodic. Proving this theoretical result is practically important as it ensures the existence of central limit theorems (CLTs…
Recently, the well known Liu estimator (Liu, 1993) is attracted researcher's attention in regression parameter estimation for an ill conditioned linear model. It is also argued that imposing sub-space hypothesis restriction on parameters improves estimation by shrinking toward non-sample information. Chang (2015) proposed the almost unbiased Liu estimator (AULE) in the binary logistic regression. In this article, some improved unbiased Liu type estimators, namely, restricted AULE, preliminary test AULE, Stein-type shrinkage AULE and its positive part for estimating the regression parameters in…
This paper discusses infill asymptotics for logistic regression estimators for spatio-temporal point processes whose intensity functions are of log-linear form. We establish strong consistency and asymptotic normality for the parameters of a Poisson point process model and demonstrate how these results can be extended to general point process models. Additionally, under proper conditions, we also extend our central limit theorem to other unbiased estimating equations that are based on the Campbell--Mecke theorem.
On high-dimensional classification by sparse generalized Bayesian logistic regression
本文针对高维分类问题，提出稀疏广义贝叶斯逻辑回归方法，利用分数似然后验，推导了分数后验的集中结果及误分类超额风险界，并扩展到模型误设情形。
We wish to estimate conditional density using Gaussian Mixture Regression model with logistic weights and means depending on the covariate. We aim at selecting the number of components of this model as well as the other parameters by a penalized maximum likelihood approach. We provide a lower bound on penalty, proportional up to a logarithmic term to the dimension of each model, that ensures an oracle inequality for our estimator. Our theoretical analysis is supported by some numerical experiments.
In the last decade, the secondary use of large data from health systems, such as electronic health records, has demonstrated great promise in advancing biomedical discoveries and improving clinical decision making. However, there is an increasing concern about biases in association studies caused by misclassification in the binary outcomes derived from electronic health records. We revisit the classical logistic regression model with misclassified outcomes. Despite that local identification conditions in some related settings have been previously established, the global identification of such …
Logistic regression is a well-known statistical model which is commonly used in the situation where the output is a binary random variable. It has a wide range of applications including machine learning, public health, social sciences, ecology and econometry. In order to estimate the unknown parameters of logistic regression with data streams arriving sequentially and at high speed, we focus our attention on a recursive stochastic algorithm. More precisely, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of a new stochastic Newton algorithm. It enables to easily update the estimates when the data arriv…
In cluster-specific studies, ordinary logistic regression and conditional logistic regression for binary outcomes provide maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and conditional maximum likelihood estimator (CMLE), respectively. In this paper, we show that CMLE is approaching to MLE asymptotically when each individual data point is replicated infinitely many times. Our theoretical derivation is based on the observation that a term appearing in the conditional average log-likelihood function is the coefficient of a polynomial, and hence can be transformed to a complex integral by Cauchy's differenti…
We present new stochastic geometry theorems that give bounds on the probability that $m$ random data classes all contain a point in common in their convex hulls. We apply these stochastic separation theorems to obtain bounds on the probability of existence of maximum likelihood estimators in multinomial logistic regression. We also discuss connections to condition numbers for analysis of steepest descent algorithms in logistic regression and to the computation of centerpoints of data clouds.
Most of the non-asymptotic theoretical work in regression is carried out for the square loss, where estimators can be obtained through closed-form expressions. In this paper, we use and extend tools from the convex optimization literature, namely self-concordant functions, to provide simple extensions of theoretical results for the square loss to the logistic loss. We apply the extension techniques to logistic regression with regularization by the $\ell_2$-norm and regularization by the $\ell_1$-norm, showing that new results for binary classification through logistic regression can be easily …
We consider online optimization procedures in the context of logistic regression, focusing on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). We introduce a second-order algorithm close to the EKF, named Semi-Online Step (SOS), for which we prove a O(log(n)) regret in the adversarial setting, paving the way to similar results for the EKF. This regret bound on SOS is the first for such parameter-free algorithm in the adversarial logistic regression. We prove for the EKF in constant dynamics a O(log(n)) regret in expectation and in the well-specified logistic regression model.
In this paper we consider exact tests of a multiple logistic regression, where the levels of covariates are equally spaced, via Markov beses. In usual application of multiple logistic regression, the sample size is positive for each combination of levels of the covariates. In this case we do not need a whole Markov basis, which guarantees connectivity of all fibers. We first give an explicit Markov basis for multiple Poisson regression. By the Lawrence lifting of this basis, in the case of bivariate logistic regression, we show a simple subset of the Markov basis which connects all fibers with…
Dimension-free uniform concentration bound for logistic regression
本文为受限逻辑回归经验风险函数提出一种无维数一致集中界，基于PAC-Bayes二阶展开与残差项界推导，比Rademacher复杂度与McDiarmid不等式条件更温和。
We consider high-dimensional binary classification by sparse logistic regression. We propose a model/feature selection procedure based on penalized maximum likelihood with a complexity penalty on the model size and derive the non-asymptotic bounds for the resulting misclassification excess risk. The bounds can be reduced under the additional low-noise condition. The proposed complexity penalty is remarkably related to the VC-dimension of a set of sparse linear classifiers. Implementation of any complexity penalty-based criterion, however, requires a combinatorial search over all possible model…
We consider the problem of link prediction, based on partial observation of a large network, and on side information associated to its vertices. The generative model is formulated as a matrix logistic regression. The performance of the model is analysed in a high-dimensional regime under a structural assumption. The minimax rate for the Frobenius-norm risk is established and a combinatorial estimator based on the penalised maximum likelihood approach is shown to achieve it. Furthermore, it is shown that this rate cannot be attained by any (randomised) algorithm computable in polynomial time un…
Feature selection is a standard approach to understanding and modeling high-dimensional classification data, but the corresponding statistical methods hinge on tuning parameters that are difficult to calibrate. In particular, existing calibration schemes in the logistic regression framework lack any finite sample guarantees. In this paper, we introduce a novel calibration scheme for $\ell_1$-penalized logistic regression. It is based on simple tests along the tuning parameter path and is equipped with optimal guarantees for feature selection. It is also amenable to easy and efficient implement…
This paper considers the problem of matrix-variate logistic regression. It derives the fundamental error threshold on estimating low-rank coefficient matrices in the logistic regression problem by obtaining a lower bound on the minimax risk. The bound depends explicitly on the dimension and distribution of the covariates, the rank and energy of the coefficient matrix, and the number of samples. The resulting bound is proportional to the intrinsic degrees of freedom in the problem, which suggests the sample complexity of the low-rank matrix logistic regression problem can be lower than that for…
We consider a distributed logistic regression problem where labeled data pairs $(X_i,Y_i)\in \mathbb{R}^d\times\{-1,1\}$ for $i=1,\ldots,n$ are distributed across multiple machines in a network and must be communicated to a centralized estimator using at most $k$ bits per labeled pair. We assume that the data $X_i$ come independently from some distribution $P_X$, and that the distribution of $Y_i$ conditioned on $X_i$ follows a logistic model with some parameter $θ\in\mathbb{R}^d$. By using a Fisher information argument, we give minimax lower bounds for estimating $θ$ under different assumptio…
We want to analyse EEG recordings in order to investigate the phonemic categorization at a very early stage of auditory processing. This problem can be modelled by a supervised classification of functional data. Discrimination is explored via a logistic functional linear model, using a wavelet representation of the data. Different procedures are investigated, based on penalized likelihood and principal component reduction or partial least squares reduction.
We present a family of expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms for binary and negative-binomial logistic regression, drawing a sharp connection with the variational-Bayes algorithm of Jaakkola and Jordan (2000). Indeed, our results allow a version of this variational-Bayes approach to be re-interpreted as a true EM algorithm. We study several interesting features of the algorithm, and of this previously unrecognized connection with variational Bayes. We also generalize the approach to sparsity-promoting priors, and to an online method whose convergence properties are easily established. This …
A new approach for feature extraction from time series is proposed in this paper. This approach consists of a specific regression model incorporating a discrete hidden logistic process. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method performed by a dedicated Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The parameters of the hidden logistic process, in the inner loop of the EM algorithm, are estimated using a multi-class Iterative Reweighted Least-Squares (IRLS) algorithm. A piecewise regression algorithm and its iterative variant have also been considered for comparisons. An ex…
On the sample complexity of parameter estimation in logistic regression with normal design
本文研究逻辑回归在标准正态设计下参数估计的样本复杂度，发现其随逆温度变化存在两个变点，清晰划分低、中、高温三个区域。
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