航空可持续气候轨迹的模拟和评估
Simulation and evaluation of sustainable climate trajectories for aviation
摘要：
2019年，航空业占全球二氧化碳排放量的2.6%，以及其他气候影响，如尾迹。与所有工业部门一样，航空业必须采取措施减少其对气候的影响。本文主要研究航空业气候情景的模拟和评估。为此目的，开发了一个具体工具（CAST，“气候与航空-可持续的轨道”）。该工具遵循适用于航空的方法，使用碳预算概念和主要行动杠杆模型，如空中交通水平，减少飞机能耗或能源脱碳。这些模型基于历史数据的趋势预测或文献中的假设。本文使用CAST进行了几个场景分析，并得出几个结论。例如，基于ATAG（航空运输行动小组）承诺的情景建模表明，航空将消耗世界碳预算的2.9%至3.5%，以将全球变暖限制在2°C，1.5°C将消耗6.5%至8.1%。此外，提出了一些说明性的情景。通过将2.6%的碳预算分配给航空，表明当空中交通量的年增长率在-1.8%和+2.6%之间变化时，航空运输与+2 ° C的轨迹是兼容的，这取决于所考虑的技术改进。然而，在+1.5 ° C轨迹的情况下，生长速率必须大幅降低。最后，包括非CO2影响的分析，迫使强调实施具体的战略，以减轻尾迹。
英文摘要：
In 2019, aviation was responsible for 2.6% of the world CO2 emissions as well as additional climate impacts such as contrails. Like all industrial sectors, the aviation sector must implement measures to reduce its climate impact. This paper focuses on the simulation and the evaluation of climatic scenarios for the aviation industry. For this purpose, a specific tool (CAST for "Climate and Aviation - Sustainable Trajectories") has been developed. This tool follows a methodology adapted to aviation using the concept of carbon budget and models of the main levers of action such as the level of air traffic, reduction of aircraft energy consumption or energy decarbonisation. These models are based on trend projections from historical data or assumptions from the literature. Several scenario analyses are performed in this paper using CAST and allow several conclusions to be drawn. For instance, the modelling of the scenarios based on the ATAG (Air Transport Action Group) commitments shows that aviation would consume between 2.9% and 3.5% of the world carbon budget to limit global warming to 2°C and between 6.5% and 8.1% for 1.5°C. Also, some illustrative scenarios are proposed. By allocating 2.6% of the carbon budget to aviation, it is shown that air transport is compatible with a +2°C trajectory when the annual growth rate of air traffic varies between -1.8% and +2.6%, depending on the considered technological improvements. However, in the case of a +1.5°C trajectory, the growth rate would have to be reduced drastically. Finally, analyses including non-CO2 effects compel to emphasize the implementation of specific strategies for mitigating contrails.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
