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arXiv 2102.01496cs.LGstat.ML
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基于图模型的高斯型专家选择

Gaussian Experts Selection using Graphical Models

University of Tuebingen(图宾根大学)

Hamed Jalali, Martin Pawelczyk, Gjergji Kasneci

摘要:

局部近似是将高斯过程(GP)扩展到大数据的流行方法。局部近似通过将原始数据集划分为子集并在每个子集上训练局部专家来降低时间复杂度。假设专家之间的条件依赖性或独立性,聚合专家的预测。在专家之间施加\emph{conditional independence assumption}(CI)使得不同专家预测的聚合具有时间效率,但代价是不确定性量化较差。另一方面,建模依赖专家可以提供精确的预测和不确定性量化的代价不切实际的高计算成本。通过消除弱专家通过理论指导的专家选择步骤,我们大大降低了计算成本的聚集依赖的专家,同时确保校准的不确定性量化。我们利用无向图模型的文献中的技术,使用稀疏精度矩阵编码专家之间的条件依赖关系,以选择最重要的专家。莫列奥夫

英文摘要:

Local approximations are popular methods to scale Gaussian processes (GPs) to big data. Local approximations reduce time complexity by dividing the original dataset into subsets and training a local expert on each subset. Aggregating the experts' prediction is done assuming either conditional dependence or independence between the experts. Imposing the \emph{conditional independence assumption} (CI) between the experts renders the aggregation of different expert predictions time efficient at the cost of poor uncertainty quantification. On the other hand, modeling dependent experts can provide precise predictions and uncertainty quantification at the expense of impractically high computational costs. By eliminating weak experts via a theory-guided expert selection step, we substantially reduce the computational cost of aggregating dependent experts while ensuring calibrated uncertainty quantification. We leverage techniques from the literature on undirected graphical models, using sparse precision matrices that encode conditional dependencies between experts to select the most important experts. Moreov

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