减轻COVID-19大流行影响的最佳干预策略
Optimal intervention strategies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic effects
摘要：
全球各国政府目前正面临选择合适干预策略以应对COVID-19疫情影响的任务。这是一项极具挑战性的任务，因为严厉的措施可能导致经济崩溃，而放松的战略可能导致大量死亡。基于此，我们考虑制定干预策略以减轻COVID-19大流行的影响，从而优化死亡人数与社会经济成本之间的权衡。我们证明，医疗能力和检测率高度影响最佳干预策略。此外，我们提出了一种方法，使实际的战略，少量的政策和政策变化，接近最优。特别是，我们提供工具来决定应该实施哪些政策，以及政府何时应该改变政策。最后，我们考虑了所提出的结果是如何影响的不确定性在初始繁殖数和感染致死率，并证明参数的不确定性有更大的影响时，采用更严格的策略。
英文摘要：
Governments across the world are currently facing the task of selecting suitable intervention strategies to cope with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a highly challenging task, since harsh measures may result in economic collapse while a relaxed strategy might lead to a high death toll. Motivated by this, we consider the problem of forming intervention strategies to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic that optimize the trade-off between the number of deceases and the socio-economic costs. We demonstrate that the healthcare capacity and the testing rate highly affect the optimal intervention strategies. Moreover, we propose an approach that enables practical strategies, with a small number of policies and policy changes, that are close to optimal. In particular, we provide tools to decide which policies should be implemented and when should a government change to a different policy. Finally, we consider how the presented results are affected by uncertainty in the initial reproduction number and infection fatality rate and demonstrate that parametric uncertainty has a more substantial effect when stricter strategies are adopted.
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