COVID-19疫情下的均衡石油市场份额
Equilibrium Oil Market Share under the COVID-19 Pandemic
摘要：
不确定供需条件下的能源市场均衡模型已引起人们的广泛关注。本文重点研究在COVID-19大流行下使用两阶段随机均衡对原油市场份额进行建模。我们用随机变量描述了需求和供给的不确定性，并给出了两种类型的生产决策（此时此刻和观望）。第一阶段的此时决策不取决于未来将揭示的随机事件的结果，而第二阶段的观望决策可取决于未来的随机事件，并在罕见的意外情况下（例如COVID-19大流行期间观察到的情况）调整此时决策的可行性。我们开发了一个快速算法来找到两阶段随机平衡的解决方案。我们使用2019年1月至2020年5月的真实市场数据，展示了两阶段随机均衡模型预测石油市场份额的稳健性。
英文摘要：
Equilibrium models for energy markets under uncertain demand and supply have attracted considerable attentions. This paper focuses on modelling crude oil market share under the COVID-19 pandemic using two-stage stochastic equilibrium. We describe the uncertainties in the demand and supply by random variables and provide two types of production decisions (here-and-now and wait-and-see). The here-and-now decision in the first stage does not depend on the outcome of random events to be revealed in the future and the wait-and-see decision in the second stage is allowed to depend on the random events in the future and adjust the feasibility of the here-and-now decision in rare unexpected scenarios such as those observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. We develop a fast algorithm to find a solution of the two-stage stochastic equilibrium. We show the robustness of the two-stage stochastic equilibrium model for forecasting the oil market share using the real market data from January 2019 to May 2020.
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