大流行爆发的最快检测和预测：COVID-19波分析
Quickest Detection and Forecast of Pandemic Outbreaks: Analysis of COVID-19 Waves
摘要：
截至二零二零年十二月，COVID-19疫情已在全球范围内造成逾170万人死亡，并令全球最先进的医疗系统承受沉重压力。在许多国家，政治当局采取的严厉限制措施，如全国封锁，并没有阻止新的大流行浪潮的爆发。在这篇文章中，我们提出了一个综合的检测-估计-预测框架，该框架使用公开可用的数据，旨在：（i）了解大流行的相关特征（例如，感染率）;（ii）尽快发现传染病指数增长的开始（或结束）;及（iii）可靠地预测大流行病的演变。通过分析美国的COVID-19第二波和第三波，验证了所提出的解决方案。
英文摘要：
The COVID-19 pandemic has, worldwide and up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political authorities, such as national lockdowns, have not prevented the outbreak of new pandemic's waves. In this article, we propose an integrated detection-estimation-forecasting framework that, using publicly available data, is designed to: (i) learn relevant features of the pandemic (e.g., the infection rate); (ii) detect as quickly as possible the onset (or the termination) of an exponential growth of the contagion; and (iii) reliably forecast the pandemic evolution. The proposed solution is validated by analyzing the COVID-19 second and third waves in the USA.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
