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arXiv 2108.11348eess.SPmath.STstat.TH
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非参数最快均值变化检测

Non-Parametric Quickest Mean Change Detection

Yuchen Liang, Venugopal V. Veeravalli

摘要:

研究了独立观测序列均值变化的最快检测问题。假设更改前的分布是平稳的,而允许更改后的分布是非平稳的。首先研究了变化前分布已知的情况,然后研究了仅知道变化前分布的均值和方差的情况。假设不了解变更后分布,除非其均值高于某个预先指定的阈值(大于变更前均值)。对于变化前的分布是已知的情况下,一个测试得出,渐近最大限度地减少最坏情况下的检测延迟在所有可能的变化后的分布,作为虚警率为零。为了推导出这种渐近最优检验,本文对非平稳环境下渐近极大极小鲁棒最快变化检测的一般问题给出了一些新的结果。然后,最佳测试的限制形式的研究,作为前和后的变化的手段之间的差距为零,称为均值变化测试(MCT)。结果表明,MCT可以设计与变化前分布的均值和方差的知识。MCT的性能也被表征时,平均差距是温和的,在额外的假设下,观察的分布有界的支持。通过检测β分布均值变化的数值结果验证了分析。还展示了在监测大流行病方面使用MCT的情况。

英文摘要:

The problem of quickest detection of a change in the mean of a sequence of independent observations is studied. The pre-change distribution is assumed to be stationary, while the post-change distributions are allowed to be non-stationary. The case where the pre-change distribution is known is studied first, and then the extension where only the mean and variance of the pre-change distribution are known. No knowledge of the post-change distributions is assumed other than that their means are above some pre-specified threshold larger than the pre-change mean. For the case where the pre-change distribution is known, a test is derived that asymptotically minimizes the worst-case detection delay over all possible post-change distributions, as the false alarm rate goes to zero. Towards deriving this asymptotically optimal test, some new results are provided for the general problem of asymptotic minimax robust quickest change detection in non-stationary settings. Then, the limiting form of the optimal test is studied as the gap between the pre- and post-change means goes to zero, called the Mean-Change Test (MCT). It is shown that the MCT can be designed with only knowledge of the mean and variance of the pre-change distribution. The performance of the MCT is also characterized when the mean gap is moderate, under the additional assumption that the distributions of the observations have bounded support. The analysis is validated through numerical results for detecting a change in the mean of a beta distribution. The use of the MCT in monitoring pandemics is also demonstrated.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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