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arXiv 2012.121352020-12-22stat.APmath.OC

COVID-19: Optimal Design of Serosurveys for Disease Burden Estimation

Siva Athreya, Giridhara R. Babu, Aniruddha Iyer, Mohammed Minhaas B. S., Nihesh Rathod, Sharad Shriram, Rajesh Sundaresan, Nidhin Koshy Vaidhiyan, Sarath Yasodharan

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We provide a methodology by which an epidemiologist may arrive at an optimal design for a survey whose goal is to estimate the disease burden in a population. For serosurveys with a given budget of $C$ rupees, a specified set of tests with costs, sensitivities, and specificities, we show the existence of optimal designs in four different contexts, including the well known c-optimal design. Usefulness of the results are illustrated via numerical examples. Our results are applicable to a wide range of epidemiological surveys under the assumptions that the estimate's Fisher-information matrix satisfies a uniform positive definite criterion.

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