Aggregating human judgment probabilistic predictions of COVID-19 transmission, burden, and preventative measures

Aggregating predictions from experts: a scoping review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications

Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse, rapidly changing, or unavailable, statistical models may not be able to make accurate predictions. Expert judgmental forecasts---models that combine expert-generated predictions into a single forecast---can make predictions when training data is limited by relying on expert intuition to take the place of concrete training data. Researchers have proposed a wide array of algorithms to combine expert predictions into a single fore…

传染病预测中的预测市场表现逊于简单基准

Prediction Markets Underperform Simple Baselines For Infectious Disease Forecasting

本文评估了预测市场在传染病预测中的表现，发现其在流感和麻疹预测中均无法超越传统基准，指出市场效率低下源于对不可能结果的概率分配和低交易量。