Probabilistic solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) provide efficient quantification of numerical uncertainty associated with simulation of dynamical systems. Their convergence rates have been established by a growing body of theoretical analysis. However, these algorithms suffer from numerical instability when run at high order or with small step-sizes -- that is, exactly in the regime in which they achieve the highest accuracy. The present work proposes and examines a solution to this problem. It involves three components: accurate initialisation, a coordinate change preconditioner that makes numerical stability concerns step-size-independent, and square-root implementation. Using all three techniques enables numerical computation of probabilistic solutions of ODEs with algorithms of order up to 11, as demonstrated on a set of challenging test problems. The resulting rapid convergence is shown to be competitive to high-order, state-of-the-art, classical methods. As a consequence, a barrier between analysing probabilistic ODE solvers and applying them to interesting machine learning problems is effectively removed.
McGill University（麦吉尔大学）；Vector Institute（向量研究所）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；UCLA（加州大学洛杉矶分校）
Training neural ODEs on large datasets has not been tractable due to the necessity of allowing the adaptive numerical ODE solver to refine its step size to very small values. In practice this leads to dynamics equivalent to many hundreds or even thousands of layers. In this paper, we overcome this apparent difficulty by introducing a theoretically-grounded combination of both optimal transport and stability regularizations which encourage neural ODEs to prefer simpler dynamics out of all the dynamics that solve a problem well. Simpler dynamics lead to faster convergence and to fewer discretiza…
Fast Convergence for High-Order ODE Solvers in Diffusion Probabilistic Models
Beijing International Center for Mathematical Research, Center for Machine Learning Research, Peking University, Beijing, China（北京国际数学研究中心、机器学习研究中心、北京大学，北京，中国）；Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA（统计与数据科学系、宾夕法尼亚大学，费城，PA，美国）；Department of Mathematics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, 02139 Cambridge MA, USA（数学系、麻省理工学院，马萨诸塞大道77号，02139剑桥MA，美国）
We introduce two block coordinate descent algorithms for solving optimization problems with ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as dynamical constraints. The algorithms do not need to implement direct or adjoint sensitivity analysis methods to evaluate loss function gradients. They results from reformulation of the original problem as an equivalent optimization problem with equality constraints. The algorithms naturally follow from steps aimed at recovering the gradient-decent algorithm based on ODE solvers that explicitly account for sensitivity of the ODE solution. In our first proposed a…
the University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；CSIRO’s Data61（澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织数据61研究所）；NVIDIA（英伟达）
Advances in differentiable numerical integrators have enabled the use of gradient descent techniques to learn ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In the context of machine learning, differentiable solvers are central for Neural ODEs (NODEs), a class of deep learning models with continuous depth, rather than discrete layers. However, these integrators can be unsatisfactorily slow and inaccurate when learning systems of ODEs from long sequences, or when solutions of the system vary at widely different timescales in each dimension. In this paper we propose an alternative approach to learning …
MPI for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Cambridge University（剑桥大学）
Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability distribution over the ODE solution. In contrast to prior work, we construct this family such that posterior means match the outputs of the Runge-Kutta family exactly, thus inheriting their proven good properties. Remaining degrees of freedom not identified by the match to Runge-Ku…
University of Tübingen（图宾根大学）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Probabilistic solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have emerged as an efficient framework for uncertainty quantification and inference on dynamical systems. In this work, we explain the mathematical assumptions and detailed implementation schemes behind solving {high-dimensional} ODEs with a probabilistic numerical algorithm. This has not been possible before due to matrix-matrix operations in each solver step, but is crucial for scientifically relevant problems -- most importantly, the solution of discretised {partial} differential equations. In a nutshell, efficient high-dimens…
University of Tübingen（图宾根大学）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations compute posterior distributions over the solution of an initial value problem via Bayesian inference. In this paper, we leverage their probabilistic formulation to seamlessly include additional information as general likelihood terms. We show that second-order differential equations should be directly provided to the solver, instead of transforming the problem to first order. Additionally, by including higher-order information or physical conservation laws in the model, solutions become more accurate and more physically meanin…
University of Tübingen（蒂宾根大学）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Probabilistic solvers for ordinary differential equations assign a posterior measure to the solution of an initial value problem. The joint covariance of this distribution provides an estimate of the (global) approximation error. The contraction rate of this error estimate as a function of the solver's step size identifies it as a well-calibrated worst-case error, but its explicit numerical value for a certain step size is not automatically a good estimate of the explicit error. Addressing this issue, we introduce, discuss, and assess several probabilistically motivated ways to calibrate the u…
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Renmin University of China（中国人民大学）
Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) are emerging powerful generative models. Despite their high-quality generation performance, DPMs still suffer from their slow sampling as they generally need hundreds or thousands of sequential function evaluations (steps) of large neural networks to draw a sample. Sampling from DPMs can be viewed alternatively as solving the corresponding diffusion ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In this work, we propose an exact formulation of the solution of diffusion ODEs. The formulation analytically computes the linear part of the solution, rather than leavin…
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Bosch Center for Artificial Intelligence（博世人工智能中心）
Likelihood-free (a.k.a. simulation-based) inference problems are inverse problems with expensive, or intractable, forward models. ODE inverse problems are commonly treated as likelihood-free, as their forward map has to be numerically approximated by an ODE solver. This, however, is not a fundamental constraint but just a lack of functionality in classic ODE solvers, which do not return a likelihood but a point estimate. To address this shortcoming, we employ Gaussian ODE filtering (a probabilistic numerical method for ODEs) to construct a local Gaussian approximation to the likelihood. This a…
This work develops a class of probabilistic algorithms for the numerical solution of nonlinear, time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs). Current state-of-the-art PDE solvers treat the space- and time-dimensions separately, serially, and with black-box algorithms, which obscures the interactions between spatial and temporal approximation errors and misguides the quantification of the overall error. To fix this issue, we introduce a probabilistic version of a technique called method of lines. The proposed algorithm begins with a Gaussian process interpretation of finite difference m…
Technical University of Denmark（丹麦技术大学）；University of Tübingen（图宾根大学）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Bosch Center for Artificial Intelligence（博世人工智能中心）
We propose a fast, simple and robust algorithm for computing shortest paths and distances on Riemannian manifolds learned from data. This amounts to solving a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) subject to boundary conditions. Here standard solvers perform poorly because they require well-behaved Jacobians of the ODE, and usually, manifolds learned from data imply unstable and ill-conditioned Jacobians. Instead, we propose a fixed-point iteration scheme for solving the ODE that avoids Jacobians. This enhances the stability of the solver, while reduces the computational cost. In ex…
It has recently been established that the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations can be posed as a nonlinear Bayesian inference problem, which can be approximately solved via Gaussian filtering and smoothing, whenever a Gauss--Markov prior is used. In this paper the class of $ν$ times differentiable linear time invariant Gauss--Markov priors is considered. A taxonomy of Gaussian estimators is established, with the maximum a posteriori estimate at the top of the hierarchy, which can be computed with the iterated extended Kalman smoother. The remaining three classes are termed exp…
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
This manuscript proposes a probabilistic framework for algorithms that iteratively solve unconstrained linear problems $Bx = b$ with positive definite $B$ for $x$. The goal is to replace the point estimates returned by existing methods with a Gaussian posterior belief over the elements of the inverse of $B$, which can be used to estimate errors. Recent probabilistic interpretations of the secant family of quasi-Newton optimization algorithms are extended. Combined with properties of the conjugate gradient algorithm, this leads to uncertainty-calibrated methods with very limited cost overhead o…
University of Tübingen（图宾根大学）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Mechanistic models with differential equations are a key component of scientific applications of machine learning. Inference in such models is usually computationally demanding, because it involves repeatedly solving the differential equation. The main problem here is that the numerical solver is hard to combine with standard inference techniques. Recent work in probabilistic numerics has developed a new class of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that phrase the solution process directly in terms of Bayesian filtering. We here show that this allows such methods to be combined …
Google Research（谷歌研究院）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）
Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) are elegant reinterpretations of deep networks where continuous time can replace the discrete notion of depth, ODE solvers perform forward propagation, and the adjoint method enables efficient, constant memory backpropagation. Neural ODEs are universal approximators only when they are non-autonomous, that is, the dynamics depends explicitly on time. We propose a novel family of Neural ODEs with time-varying weights, where time-dependence is non-parametric, and the smoothness of weight trajectories can be explicitly controlled to allow a tradeoff be…
We present Ordinary Differential Equation Variational Auto-Encoder (ODE$^2$VAE), a latent second order ODE model for high-dimensional sequential data. Leveraging the advances in deep generative models, ODE$^2$VAE can simultaneously learn the embedding of high dimensional trajectories and infer arbitrarily complex continuous-time latent dynamics. Our model explicitly decomposes the latent space into momentum and position components and solves a second order ODE system, which is in contrast to recurrent neural network (RNN) based time series models and recently proposed black-box ODE techniques.…
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Amazon Web Services（亚马逊云科技）
Gaussian ODE filtering is a probabilistic numerical method to solve ordinary differential equations (ODEs). It computes a Bayesian posterior over the solution from evaluations of the vector field defining the ODE. Its most popular version, which employs an integrated Brownian motion prior, uses Taylor expansions of the mean to extrapolate forward and has the same convergence rates as classical numerical methods. As the solution of many important ODEs are periodic functions (oscillators), we raise the question whether Fourier expansions can also be brought to bear within the framework of Gaussi…
Aalto University（阿尔托大学）；University of Tübingen（蒂宾根大学）
Recent machine learning advances have proposed black-box estimation of unknown continuous-time system dynamics directly from data. However, earlier works are based on approximative ODE solutions or point estimates. We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric model that uses Gaussian processes to infer posteriors of unknown ODE systems directly from data. We derive sparse variational inference with decoupled functional sampling to represent vector field posteriors. We also introduce a probabilistic shooting augmentation to enable efficient inference from arbitrarily long trajectories. The method …
We formulate probabilistic numerical approximations to solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as problems in Gaussian process (GP) regression with non-linear measurement functions. This is achieved by defining the measurement sequence to consist of the observations of the difference between the derivative of the GP and the vector field evaluated at the GP---which are all identically zero at the solution of the ODE. When the GP has a state-space representation, the problem can be reduced to a non-linear Bayesian filtering problem and all widely-used approximations to the Bayesian f…
Scalable h-adaptive probabilistic solver for time-independent and time-dependent systems
Department of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering（航空航天与机械工程系）；University of Notre Dame（诺特丹大学）；Department of Applied Mechanics（应用力学系）；School of Artificial Intelligence（人工智能学院）；Indian Institute of Technology Delhi（德里印度理工学院）
