Mortality prediction in intensive care units is considered one of the critical steps for efficiently treating patients in serious condition. As a result, various prediction models have been developed to address this problem based on modern electronic healthcare records. However, it becomes increasingly challenging to model such tasks as time series variables because some laboratory test results such as heart rate and blood pressure are sampled with inconsistent time frequencies. In this paper, we propose several deep learning models using the same features as the SAPS II score. To derive insight into the proposed model performance. Several experiments have been conducted based on the well known clinical dataset Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III. The prediction results demonstrate the proposed model's capability in terms of precision, recall, F1 score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
Respiratory failure is the one of major causes of death in critical care unit. During the outbreak of COVID-19, critical care units experienced an extreme shortage of mechanical ventilation because of respiratory failure related syndromes. To help this, the early mortality risk prediction in patients who suffer respiratory failure can provide timely support for clinical treatment and resource management. In the study, we propose a dynamic modeling approach for early mortality risk prediction of the respiratory failure patients based on the first 24 hours ICU physiological data. Our proposed mo…
Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems provide critical, rich and valuable information at high frequency. One of the most exciting applications of EHR data is in developing a real-time mortality warning system with tools from survival analysis. However, most of the survival analysis methods used recently are based on (semi)parametric models using static covariates. These models do not take advantage of the information conveyed by the time-varying EHR data. In this work, we present an application of a highly scalable survival analysis method, BoXHED 2.0 to develop a real-time in-ICU mortality w…
Think as a Doctor: An Interpretable AI Approach for ICU Mortality Prediction
School of Information Management & Engineering, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics（上海金融学院信息管理与工程学院）；Key Laboratory of Data Intelligence and Management (Beihang University), Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, School of Economics and Management, Beihang University（北京航空航天大学数据智能与管理重点实验室）
Early recognition of risky trajectories during an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) stay is one of the key steps towards improving patient survival. Learning trajectories from physiological signals continuously measured during an ICU stay requires learning time-series features that are robust and discriminative across diverse patient populations. Patients within different ICU populations (referred here as domains) vary by age, conditions and interventions. Thus, mortality prediction models using patient data from a particular ICU population may perform suboptimally in other populations because the fea…
Good predictors of ICU Mortality have the potential to identify high-risk patients earlier, improve ICU resource allocation, or create more accurate population-level risk models. Machine learning practitioners typically make choices about how to represent features in a particular model, but these choices are seldom evaluated quantitatively. This study compares the performance of different representations of clinical event data from MIMIC II in a logistic regression model to predict 36-hour ICU mortality. The most common representations are linear (normalized counts) and binary (yes/no). These,…
To date, developing a good model for early intensive care unit (ICU) mortality prediction is still challenging. This paper presents a patient based predictive modeling framework (PPMF) to improve the performance of ICU mortality prediction using data collected during the first 48 hours of ICU admission. PPMF consists of three main components verifying three related research hypotheses. The first component captures dynamic changes of patients status in the ICU using their time series data (e.g., vital signs and laboratory tests). The second component is a local approximation algorithm that clas…
Early Mortality Prediction in ICU Patients with Hypertensive Kidney Disease Using Interpretable Machine Learning
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California（美国南加州大学工业与系统工程系）；Colorectal Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences（伊朗医学科学大学结直肠研究中心）；Department of Health Science, California State University, Long Beach (CSULB)（加州大学长滩分校健康科学系）；Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona（加州州立大学波莫纳分校工业与制造工程系）
Clinically Interpretable Mortality Prediction for ICU Patients with Diabetes and Atrial Fibrillation: A Machine Learning Approach
organization= Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial \& Systems Engineering, University of Southern California , city= Los Angeles , state= CA , postcode= 90089 , country= United States；organization= Colorectal Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences , city= Tehran , postcode= 14535 , country= Iran；organization= Department of Health Science, California State University , city= Long Beach , state= CA , postcode= 90840 , country= United States；organization= Department of Industrial；Manufacturing Engineering, California State Polytechnic University , city= Pomona , state= CA , postcode= 91768 , country= United States
Paralytic Ileus (PI) patients are at high risk of death when admitted to the Intensive care unit (ICU), with mortality as high as 40\%. There is minimal research concerning PI patient mortality prediction. There is a need for more accurate prediction modeling for ICU patients diagnosed with PI. This paper demonstrates performance improvements in predicting the mortality of ICU patients diagnosed with PI after 24 hours of being admitted. The proposed framework, PMPI(Process Mining Model to predict mortality of PI patients), is a modification of the work used for prediction of in-hospital mortal…
Feinberg School of Medicine Northwestern University Chicago, U.S；Weill Cornell Medicine Cornell University New York, U.S
ICU mortality risk prediction is a tough yet important task. On one hand, due to the complex temporal data collected, it is difficult to identify the effective features and interpret them easily; on the other hand, good prediction can help clinicians take timely actions to prevent the mortality. These correspond to the interpretability and accuracy problems. Most existing methods lack of the interpretability, but recently Subgraph Augmented Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (SANMF) has been successfully applied to time series data to provide a path to interpret the features well. Therefore, we …
Early Prediction of In-Hospital ICU Mortality Using Innovative First-Day Data: A Review
Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University（广东医科大学附属医院）；Maastricht University Medical Center（马斯特里赫特大学医学中心）；GROW School for Oncology and Reproduction, Maastricht University Medical Center（马斯特里赫特大学医学中心肿瘤与生殖GROW学院）；Institute of Nephrology, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University（广东医科大学附属医院肾脏病研究所）；Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Autophagy and Major Chronic Non-communicable Diseases（广东省自噬与重大慢性非传染性疾病重点实验室）；Beijing University of Technology（北京工业大学）；China Agricultural University（中国农业大学）；JTB Technology Corp.（JTB科技股份有限公司）；Guangdong Medical University（广东医科大学）；Chinese PLA General Hospital（中国人民解放军总医院）；Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University（中国医科大学附属盛京医院）
College of Information and Computer Sciences（信息与计算机科学学院）；University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）
Intensive Care Unit Electronic Health Records (ICU EHRs) store multimodal data about patients including clinical notes, sparse and irregularly sampled physiological time series, lab results, and more. To date, most methods designed to learn predictive models from ICU EHR data have focused on a single modality. In this paper, we leverage the recently proposed interpolation-prediction deep learning architecture(Shukla and Marlin 2019) as a basis for exploring how physiological time series data and clinical notes can be integrated into a unified mortality prediction model. We study both early and…
Auckland University of Technology（奥克兰理工大学）；Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar（玻利瓦尔理工大学）
Accurate mortality prediction allows Intensive Care Units (ICUs) to adequately benchmark clinical practice and identify patients with unexpected outcomes. Traditionally, simple statistical models have been used to assess patient death risk, many times with sub-optimal performance. On the other hand deep learning holds promise to positively impact clinical practice by leveraging medical data to assist diagnosis and prediction, including mortality prediction. However, as the question of whether powerful Deep Learning models attend correlations backed by sound medical knowledge when generating pr…
Improving Fairness of Large Language Model-Based ICU Mortality Prediction via Case-Based Prompting
School of Computer Science and Engineering, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin, China（天津理工大学计算机科学与工程学院）；Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Peking University, Beijing, China（北京大学人工智能研究院）；DCST, BNRist, RIIT, Institute of Internet Industry, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China（清华大学信息产业研究院）；National Institute of Health Data Science, Peking University, Beijing, China（北京大学健康数据科学国家研究院）
Machine Learning-Based Prediction of ICU Readmissions in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Patients: Insights from the MIMIC Databases
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；California State University, Long Beach（加州州立大学长滩分校）；California State Polytechnic University, Pomona（加州州立理工大学波莫纳分校）
IMEDACS；Vivace Health Solutions Inc（Vivace健康解决方案公司）；Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）；Scripps Memorial Hospital - Encinitas（斯克里普斯恩西尼塔斯纪念医院）
Although timely sepsis diagnosis and prompt interventions in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients are associated with reduced mortality, early clinical recognition is frequently impeded by non-specific signs of infection and failure to detect signs of sepsis-induced organ dysfunction in a constellation of dynamically changing physiological data. The goal of this work is to identify patient at risk of life-threatening sepsis utilizing a data-centered and machine learning-driven approach. We derive a mortality risk predictive dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) guided by a customized sepsis knowledgeba…
XAI for In-hospital Mortality Prediction via Multimodal ICU Data
Wuhan University（武汉大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）
Self-explaining Neural Network with Concept-based Explanations for ICU Mortality Prediction
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA（计算机科学与工程系，华盛顿大学圣路易斯分校）；Institute for Informatics, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, USA（信息学院，华盛顿大学医学学院）；Department of Anaesthesiology, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, USA（麻醉学系，华盛顿大学医学学院）；Department of Pulmonary Critical Care and Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, USA（呼吸科重症医学系，华盛顿大学医学学院）
Stockholm University（斯德哥尔摩大学）；Getinge（洁定）；QRIOS IT
Although Machine Learning (ML) can be seen as a promising tool to improve clinical decision-making for supporting the improvement of medication plans, clinical procedures, diagnoses, or medication prescriptions, it remains limited by access to healthcare data. Healthcare data is sensitive, requiring strict privacy practices, and typically stored in data silos, making traditional machine learning challenging. Federated learning can counteract those limitations by training machine learning models over data silos while keeping the sensitive data localized. This study proposes a federated learning…
Machine Learning-Based Prediction of ICU Mortality in Sepsis-Associated Acute Kidney Injury Patients Using MIMIC-IV Database with Validation from eICU Database
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；Iran University of Medical Sciences（伊朗医学科学大学）；California State University（加利福尼亚州立大学）；California State Polytechnic University（加利福尼亚州_polytechnic大学）
ICU Mortality Prediction Using Long Short-Term Memory Networks
Faculty of Medicine, University of Monastir（莫纳斯提尔大学医学院）；Higher Institute of Computer Sciences and Mathematics, University of Monastir（莫纳斯提尔大学高等计算机科学与数学学院）
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Based Prediction of Mortality, for COVID-19 Patients
Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University（伊玛目阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·本·费萨尔大学）；Ahsanullah University of Science and Technology（阿赫萨努拉科技大学）；Health Cluster（卫生集群）；Ajman University（阿治曼大学）
University of Maryland, Baltimore County（马里兰大学巴尔的摩县分校）；Northeast Georgia Health System（东北乔治亚医疗系统）；Palos Health（帕洛斯医疗中心）；Penn State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；Purdue University（普渡大学）
Recent advances in causal inference techniques, more specifically, in the theory of structural causal models, provide the framework for identification of causal effects from observational data in the cases where the causal graph is identifiable, i.e., the data generating mechanism can be recovered from the joint distribution. However, no such studies have been done to demonstrate this concept with a clinical example. We present a complete framework to estimate the causal effect from observational data by augmenting expert knowledge in the model development phase and with a practical clinical a…
New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology（新墨西哥矿业技术学院）；Oak Ridge National Laboratory（橡树岭国家实验室）；The University of Tennessee Health Science Center（田纳西大学健康科学中心）；Illinois State University（伊利诺伊州立大学）
Patient monitoring is vital in all stages of care. We here report the development and validation of ICU length of stay and mortality prediction models. The models will be used in an intelligent ICU patient monitoring module of an Intelligent Remote Patient Monitoring (IRPM) framework that monitors the health status of patients, and generates timely alerts, maneuver guidance, or reports when adverse medical conditions are predicted. We utilized the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) database to extract ICU stay data for adult patients to build two prediction …
Auckland University of Technology（奥克兰理工大学）；Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar（玻利瓦尔理工大学）
To improve the performance of Intensive Care Units (ICUs), the field of bio-statistics has developed scores which try to predict the likelihood of negative outcomes. These help evaluate the effectiveness of treatments and clinical practice, and also help to identify patients with unexpected outcomes. However, they have been shown by several studies to offer sub-optimal performance. Alternatively, Deep Learning offers state of the art capabilities in certain prediction tasks and research suggests deep neural networks are able to outperform traditional techniques. Nevertheless, a main impediment…
Predicting ICU In-Hospital Mortality Using Adaptive Transformer Layer Fusion
Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University（广东医科大学附属医院）；Guangdong Medical University（广东医科大学）；Sun Yat-sen University（中山大学）；Beijing University of Technology（北京工业大学）；China Agricultural University（中国农业大学）；Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University（西交利物浦大学）；JTB Technology Corp.（JTB科技公司）；Peking University（北京大学）；China Medical University（中国医科大学）
Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学）；University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）
Heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States. Compared with risk assessment guidelines that require manual calculation of scores, machine learning-based prediction for disease outcomes such as mortality can be utilized to save time and improve prediction accuracy. This study built and evaluated various machine learning models to predict one-year mortality in patients diagnosed with acute myocardial infarction or post myocardial infarction syndrome in the MIMIC-III database. The results of the best performing shallow prediction models were compared to a deep feedforward…
Development of Interactive Nomograms for Predicting Short-Term Survival in ICU Patients with Aplastic Anemia
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；Iran University of Medical Sciences（伊朗医科大学）；California State University, Long Beach（加州州立大学长滩分校）；California State Polytechnic University, Pomona（加州州立理工大学波莫纳分校）
Deep learning has demonstrated success in many applications; however, their use in healthcare has been limited due to the lack of transparency into how they generate predictions. Algorithms such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) when applied to Electronic Medical Records (EMR) introduce additional barriers to transparency because of the sequential processing of the RNN and the multi-modal nature of EMR data. This work seeks to improve transparency by: 1) introducing Learned Binary Masks (LBM) as a method for identifying which EMR variables contributed to an RNN model's risk of mortality (ROM…
DarwinAI Corp.（DarwinAI公司）；University of Waterloo（滑铁卢大学）；Waterloo Artificial Intelligence Institute（滑铁卢人工智能研究所）
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a devastating global impact, and has placed a tremendous burden on struggling healthcare systems around the world. Given the limited resources, accurate patient triaging and care planning is critical in the fight against COVID-19, and one crucial task within care planning is determining if a patient should be admitted to a hospital's intensive care unit (ICU). Motivated by the need for transparent and trustworthy ICU admission clinical decision support, we introduce COVID-Net Clinical ICU, a neural network for ICU admission prediction based on patient cl…
A machine learning framework for interpretable predictions in patient pathways: The case of predicting ICU admission for patients with symptoms of sepsis
Technische Hochschule Nürnberg Georg Simon Ohm（纽伦堡乔治·西蒙·欧姆应用技术大学）；Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg（埃尔朗根-纽伦堡弗里德里希-亚历山大大学）；University of Regensburg（雷根斯堡大学）；Leipzig University（莱比锡大学）
Sepsis is an important cause of mortality, especially in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Developing novel methods to identify early mortality is critical for improving survival outcomes in sepsis patients. Using the MIMIC-III database, we integrated demographic data, physiological measurements and clinical notes. We built and applied several machine learning models to predict the risk of hospital mortality and 30-day mortality in sepsis patients. From the clinical notes, we generated clinically meaningful word representations and embeddings. Supervised learning classifiers and a deep learn…
University Hospital Bern（伯尔尼大学医院）；Auckland City Hospital（奥克兰市医院）；Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics（瑞士生物信息研究所）
Dynamic assessment of mortality risk in the intensive care unit (ICU) can be used to stratify patients, inform about treatment effectiveness or serve as part of an early-warning system. Static risk scoring systems, such as APACHE or SAPS, have recently been supplemented with data-driven approaches that track the dynamic mortality risk over time. Recent works have focused on enhancing the information delivered to clinicians even further by producing full survival distributions instead of point predictions or fixed horizon risks. In this work, we propose a non-parametric ensemble model, Weighted…
Predicting Length of Stay in Neurological ICU Patients Using Classical Machine Learning and Neural Network Models: A Benchmark Study on MIMIC-IV
Data and Web Science Group School of Business Informatics and Mathematics University of Mannheim（数据与网络科学组 商务信息与数学学院 瑞士曼海姆大学）；Human-Technology Interaction Lab Department of Neurosurgery University of Freiburg - Medical Center（人机交互实验室 神经外科系 瑞士弗赖堡医学院）
University of Virginia（弗吉尼亚大学）；Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy（弗兰克·巴顿领导力与公共政策学院）
ICU mortality scoring systems attempt to predict patient mortality using predictive models with various clinical predictors. Examples of such systems are APACHE, SAPS and MPM. However, most such scoring systems do not actively look for and include interaction terms, despite physicians intuitively taking such interactions into account when making a diagnosis. One barrier to including such terms in predictive models is the difficulty of using most variable selection methods in high-dimensional datasets. A genetic algorithm framework for variable selection with logistic regression models is used …
A Novel Multi-Task Teacher-Student Architecture with Self-Supervised Pretraining for 48-Hour Vasoactive-Inotropic Trend Analysis in Sepsis Mortality Prediction
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；California State University, Long Beach（加州州立大学长滩分校）；Iran University of Medical Sciences（伊朗医科大学）；California State Polytechnic University, Pomona（加州州立理工大学波莫纳分校）
Population stratification for prediction of mortality in post-AKI patients
Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen（阿伯丁大学应用卫生科学学院）；Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sao Paulo（圣保罗大学数学与统计学院）
CT-HEG: A Bidirectional, Timestamp-Attributed Event Graph for ICU In-Hospital Mortality Prediction - An Architectural Ablation Study
Westcliff University（韦斯特克利夫大学）；Northern University Bangladesh（孟加拉国北方大学）；Stanton University（斯坦顿大学）；Washington University of Science and Technology（华盛顿科技大学）
Identifying Subgroups of ICU Patients Using End-to-End Multivariate Time-Series Clustering Algorithm Based on Real-World Vital Signs Data
Soochow University（苏州大学）；Advanced Institute of Information Technology, Peking University（北京大学信息技术高等研究院）；National Institute of Health Data Science, Peking University（北京大学健康医疗大数据国家研究院）；Peking University People’s Hospital（北京大学人民医院）
Background Sepsis is one of the most life-threatening circumstances for critically ill patients in the US, while a standardized criteria for sepsis identification is still under development. Disparities in social determinants of sepsis patients can interfere with the risk prediction performances using machine learning. Methods Disparities in social determinants, including race, gender, marital status, insurance types and languages, among patients identified by six available sepsis criteria were revealed by forest plots. Sixteen machine learning classifiers were trained to predict in-hospital m…
Harvard University（哈佛大学）；School of Engineering and Applied Sciences（工程与应用科学学院）
Machine learning models that utilize patient data across time (rather than just the most recent measurements) have increased performance for many risk stratification tasks in the intensive care unit. However, many of these models and their learned representations are complex and therefore difficult for clinicians to interpret, creating challenges for validation. Our work proposes a new procedure to learn summaries of clinical time-series that are both predictive and easily understood by humans. Specifically, our summaries consist of simple and intuitive functions of clinical data (e.g. falling…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Mount Auburn Hospital（奥本山医院）；Harvard Medical School（哈佛医学院）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；University of Virginia School of Medicine（弗吉尼亚大学医学院）；RAND Corporation（兰德公司）
We considered observational data available from the MIMIC-III open-access ICU database and collected within a study period between year 2002 up to 2011. If a patient had multiple admissions to the ICU during the 30 days before death, only the first stay was analyzed, leading to a final set of 6,436 unique ICU admissions during the study period. We tested two hypotheses: (i) administration of invasive intervention during the ICU stay immediately preceding end-of-life would decrease over the study time period and (ii) time-to-death from ICU admission would also decrease, due to the decrease in i…
The intensive care units (ICUs) are responsible for generating a wealth of useful data in the form of Electronic Health Record (EHR). This data allows for the development of a prediction tool with perfect knowledge backing. We aimed to build a mortality prediction model on 2012 Physionet Challenge mortality prediction database of 4000 patients admitted in ICU. The challenges in the dataset, such as high dimensionality, imbalanced distribution, and missing values were tackled with analytical methods and tools via feature engineering and new variable construction. The objective of the research i…
