Learning good interventions in a causal graph can be modelled as a stochastic multi-armed bandit problem with side-information. First, we study this problem when interventions are more expensive than observations and a budget is specified. If there are no backdoor paths from an intervenable node to the reward node then we propose an algorithm to minimize simple regret that optimally trades-off observations and interventions based on the cost of intervention. We also propose an algorithm that accounts for the cost of interventions, utilizes causal side-information, and minimizes the expected cumulative regret without exceeding the budget. Our cumulative-regret minimization algorithm performs better than standard algorithms that do not take side-information into account. Finally, we study the problem of learning best interventions without budget constraint in general graphs and give an algorithm that achieves constant expected cumulative regret in terms of the instance parameters when the parent distribution of the reward variable for each intervention is known. Our results are experimentally validated and compared to the best-known bounds in the current literature.
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Univ. Lille（里尔大学）；Inria Lille（里尔法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；Université Paris Descartes（巴黎笛卡尔大学）
We study a generalization of the multi-armed bandit problem with multiple plays where there is a cost associated with pulling each arm and the agent has a budget at each time that dictates how much she can expect to spend. We derive an asymptotic regret lower bound for any uniformly efficient algorithm in our setting. We then study a variant of Thompson sampling for Bernoulli rewards and a variant of KL-UCB for both single-parameter exponential families and bounded, finitely supported rewards. We show these algorithms are asymptotically optimal, both in rateand leading problem-dependent consta…
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
Thompson sampling is one of the earliest randomized algorithms for multi-armed bandits (MAB). In this paper, we extend the Thompson sampling to Budgeted MAB, where there is random cost for pulling an arm and the total cost is constrained by a budget. We start with the case of Bernoulli bandits, in which the random rewards (costs) of an arm are independently sampled from a Bernoulli distribution. To implement the Thompson sampling algorithm in this case, at each round, we sample two numbers from the posterior distributions of the reward and cost for each arm, obtain their ratio, select the arm …
We consider a budgeted combinatorial multi-armed bandit setting where, in every round, the algorithm selects a super-arm consisting of one or more arms. The goal is to minimize the total expected regret after all rounds within a limited budget. Existing techniques in this literature either fix the budget per round or fix the number of arms pulled in each round. Our setting is more general where based on the remaining budget and remaining number of rounds, the algorithm can decide how many arms to be pulled in each round. First, we propose CBwK-Greedy-UCB algorithm, which uses a greedy techniqu…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Fudan University（复旦大学）
We propose a cumulative oversampling (CO) method for online learning. Our key idea is to sample parameter estimations from the updated belief space once in each round (similar to Thompson Sampling), and utilize the cumulative samples up to the current round to construct optimistic parameter estimations that asymptotically concentrate around the true parameters as tighter upper confidence bounds compared to the ones constructed with standard UCB methods. We apply CO to a novel budgeted variant of the Influence Maximization (IM) semi-bandits with linear generalization of edge weights, whose offl…
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；Technion（以色列理工学院）；Nvidia Research（英伟达研究院）
A core element in decision-making under uncertainty is the feedback on the quality of the performed actions. However, in many applications, such feedback is restricted. For example, in recommendation systems, repeatedly asking the user to provide feedback on the quality of recommendations will annoy them. In this work, we formalize decision-making problems with querying budget, where there is a (possibly time-dependent) hard limit on the number of reward queries allowed. Specifically, we consider multi-armed bandits, linear bandits, and reinforcement learning problems. We start by analyzing th…
Causal bandit is a nascent learning model where an agent sequentially experiments in a causal network of variables, in order to identify the reward-maximizing intervention. Despite the model's wide applicability, existing analytical results are largely restricted to a parallel bandit version where all variables are mutually independent. We introduce in this work the hierarchical causal bandit model as a viable path towards understanding general causal bandits with dependent variables. The core idea is to incorporate a contextual variable that captures the interaction among all variables with d…
In causal bandit problems, the action set consists of interventions on variables of a causal graph. Several researchers have recently studied such bandit problems and pointed out their practical applications. However, all existing works rely on a restrictive and impractical assumption that the learner is given full knowledge of the causal graph structure upfront. In this paper, we develop novel causal bandit algorithms without knowing the causal graph. Our algorithms work well for causal trees, causal forests and a general class of causal graphs. The regret guarantees of our algorithms greatly…
Australian National University（澳大利亚国立大学）；Data61/NICTA（Data61/国家信息与通信技术研究院）；University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学）
We study the problem of using causal models to improve the rate at which good interventions can be learned online in a stochastic environment. Our formalism combines multi-arm bandits and causal inference to model a novel type of bandit feedback that is not exploited by existing approaches. We propose a new algorithm that exploits the causal feedback and prove a bound on its simple regret that is strictly better (in all quantities) than algorithms that do not use the additional causal information.
This paper studies an instance of the multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem, specifically where several causal MABs operate chronologically in the same dynamical system. Practically the reward distribution of each bandit is governed by the same non-trivial dependence structure, which is a dynamic causal model. Dynamic because we allow for each causal MAB to depend on the preceding MAB and in doing so are able to transfer information between agents. Our contribution, the Chronological Causal Bandit (CCB), is useful in discrete decision-making settings where the causal effects are changing across tim…
NEC Corporation（日本电气公司）；Riken AIP（理化学研究所先进智能项目中心）；Tokyo Metropolitan University（东京都立大学）；Keio University（庆应义塾大学）；National Institute of Informatics（国立信息学研究所）
Bandit is a framework for designing sequential experiments. In each experiment, a learner selects an arm $A \in \mathcal{A}$ and obtains an observation corresponding to $A$. Theoretically, the tight regret lower-bound for the general bandit is polynomial with respect to the number of arms $|\mathcal{A}|$. This makes bandit incapable of handling an exponentially large number of arms, hence the bandit problem with side-information is often considered to overcome this lower bound. Recently, a bandit framework over a causal graph was introduced, where the structure of the causal graph is available…
INRIA Lille - Nord Europe（法国国家信息与自动化研究所里尔-北欧洲分所）；ENS Paris-Saclay（巴黎萨克雷高等师范学院）；Criteo AI Lab（Criteo人工智能实验室）；DeepMind（深度思维）
We improve the efficiency of algorithms for stochastic \emph{combinatorial semi-bandits}. In most interesting problems, state-of-the-art algorithms take advantage of structural properties of rewards, such as \emph{independence}. However, while being optimal in terms of asymptotic regret, these algorithms are inefficient. In our paper, we first reduce their implementation to a specific \emph{submodular maximization}. Then, in case of \emph{matroid} constraints, we design adapted approximation routines, thereby providing the first efficient algorithms that rely on reward structure to improve reg…
This work explores the idea of a causal contextual multi-armed bandit approach to automated marketing, where we estimate and optimize the causal (incremental) effects. Focusing on causal effect leads to better return on investment (ROI) by targeting only the persuadable customers who wouldn't have taken the action organically. Our approach draws on strengths of causal inference, uplift modeling, and multi-armed bandits. It optimizes on causal treatment effects rather than pure outcome, and incorporates counterfactual generation within data collection. Following uplift modeling results, we opti…
We study how to learn optimal interventions sequentially given causal information represented as a causal graph along with associated conditional distributions. Causal modeling is useful in real world problems like online advertisement where complex causal mechanisms underlie the relationship between interventions and outcomes. We propose two algorithms, causal upper confidence bound (C-UCB) and causal Thompson Sampling (C-TS), that enjoy improved cumulative regret bounds compared with algorithms that do not use causal information. We thus resolve an open problem posed by \cite{lattimore2016ca…
We consider minimisation of dynamic regret in non-stationary bandits with a slowly varying property. Namely, we assume that arms' rewards are stochastic and independent over time, but that the absolute difference between the expected rewards of any arm at any two consecutive time-steps is at most a drift limit $δ> 0$. For this setting that has not received enough attention in the past, we give a new algorithm which extends naturally the well-known Successive Elimination algorithm to the non-stationary bandit setting. We establish the first instance-dependent regret upper bound for slowly varyi…
School of Computer and Communication Sciences, EPFL（洛桑联邦理工学院计算机与通信科学学院）；Borealis AI（Borealis人工智能公司）；College of Management of Technology, EPFL（洛桑联邦理工学院技术管理学院）；Department of Computer Science, TUM（慕尼黑工业大学计算机科学系）
Multi-armed bandit problems provide a framework to identify the optimal intervention over a sequence of repeated experiments. Without additional assumptions, minimax optimal performance (measured by cumulative regret) is well-understood. With access to additional observed variables that d-separate the intervention from the outcome (i.e., they are a d-separator), recent "causal bandit" algorithms provably incur less regret. However, in practice it is desirable to be agnostic to whether observed variables are a d-separator. Ideally, an algorithm should be adaptive; that is, perform nearly as wel…
In real-world machine learning applications, there is a cost associated with sampling of different features. Budgeted learning can be used to select which feature-values to acquire from each instance in a dataset, such that the best model is induced under a given constraint. However, this approach is not possible in the domain of online learning since one may not retroactively acquire feature-values from past instances. In online learning, the challenge is to find the optimum set of features to be acquired from each instance upon arrival from a data stream. In this paper we introduce the issue…
The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）；Tencent（腾讯）；Chongqing University（重庆大学）
A fundamental question for companies with large amount of logged data is: How to use such logged data together with incoming streaming data to make good decisions? Many companies currently make decisions via online A/B tests, but wrong decisions during testing hurt users' experiences and cause irreversible damage. A typical alternative is offline causal inference, which analyzes logged data alone to make decisions. However, these decisions are not adaptive to the new incoming data, and so a wrong decision will continuously hurt users' experiences. To overcome the aforementioned limitations, we…
Budgeted Multi-Source Counterfactual Annotation for Off-Policy Evaluation
Johns Hopkins Carey Business School（约翰斯·霍普金斯凯瑞商学院）；International Computer Science Institute（国际计算机科学研究所）；Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；University of Pittsburgh（匹兹堡大学）
Excessively changing policies in many real world scenarios is difficult, unethical, or expensive. After all, doctor guidelines, tax codes, and price lists can only be reprinted so often. We may thus want to only change a policy when it is probable that the change is beneficial. In cases that a policy is a threshold on contextual variables we can estimate treatment effects for populations lying at the threshold. This allows for a schedule of incremental policy updates that let us optimize a policy while making few detrimental changes. Using this idea, and the theory of linear contextual bandits…
Institute for Interdisciplinary Information Sciences, Tsinghua University（清华大学交叉信息研究院）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
In combinatorial causal bandits (CCB), the learning agent chooses at most $K$ variables in each round to intervene, collects feedback from the observed variables, with the goal of minimizing expected regret on the target variable $Y$. We study under the context of binary generalized linear models (BGLMs) with a succinct parametric representation of the causal models. We present the algorithm BGLM-OFU for Markovian BGLMs (i.e. no hidden variables) based on the maximum likelihood estimation method, and show that it achieves $O(\sqrt{T}\log T)$ regret, where $T$ is the time horizon. For the speci…
Univ. Lille（里尔大学）；Inria（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Centrale Lille（里尔中央理工学校）；UMR 9189 CRIStAL（CRIStAL联合研究单位）；Univ. Grenoble Alpes（格勒诺布尔-阿尔卑斯大学）；Grenoble INP（格勒诺布尔理工学院）；LJK（LJK实验室）；Crest（CREST研究中心）；Ensae（法国国家统计与经济管理学院）；Criteo AI Lab（Criteo人工智能实验室）
In the fixed budget thresholding bandit problem, an algorithm sequentially allocates a budgeted number of samples to different distributions. It then predicts whether the mean of each distribution is larger or lower than a given threshold. We introduce a large family of algorithms (containing most existing relevant ones), inspired by the Frank-Wolfe algorithm, and provide a thorough yet generic analysis of their performance. This allowed us to construct new explicit algorithms, for a broad class of problems, whose losses are within a small constant factor of the non-adaptive oracle ones. Quite…
Contextual bandit and reinforcement learning algorithms have been successfully used in various interactive learning systems such as online advertising, recommender systems, and dynamic pricing. However, they have yet to be widely adopted in high-stakes application domains, such as healthcare. One reason may be that existing approaches assume that the underlying mechanisms are static in the sense that they do not change over different environments. In many real-world systems, however, the mechanisms are subject to shifts across environments which may invalidate the static environment assumption…
The combinatorial pure exploration of causal bandits is the following online learning task: given a causal graph with unknown causal inference distributions, in each round we choose a subset of variables to intervene or do no intervention, and observe the random outcomes of all random variables, with the goal that using as few rounds as possible, we can output an intervention that gives the best (or almost best) expected outcome on the reward variable $Y$ with probability at least $1-δ$, where $δ$ is a given confidence level. We provide the first gap-dependent and fully adaptive pure explorati…
University of Tübingen（图宾根大学）；Technical University of Berlin（柏林工业大学）
In a sequential decision-making problem, having a structural dependency amongst the reward distributions associated with the arms makes it challenging to identify a subset of alternatives that guarantees the optimal collective outcome. Thus, besides individual actions' reward, learning the causal relations is essential to improve the decision-making strategy. To solve the two-fold learning problem described above, we develop the 'combinatorial semi-bandit framework with causally related rewards', where we model the causal relations by a directed graph in a stationary structural equation model.…
In online recommendation, customers arrive in a sequential and stochastic manner from an underlying distribution and the online decision model recommends a chosen item for each arriving individual based on some strategy. We study how to recommend an item at each step to maximize the expected reward while achieving user-side fairness for customers, i.e., customers who share similar profiles will receive a similar reward regardless of their sensitive attributes and items being recommended. By incorporating causal inference into bandits and adopting soft intervention to model the arm selection st…
