Context: Predicting software project effort from Use Case Points (UCP) method is increasingly used among researchers and practitioners. However, unlike other effort estimation domains, this area of interest has not been systematically reviewed. Aims: There is a need for a systemic literature review to provide directions and supports for this research area of effort estimation. Specifically, the objective of this study is twofold: to classify UCP effort estimation papers based on four criteria: contribution type, research approach, dataset type and techniques used with UCP; and to analyze these papers from different views: estimation accuracy, favorable estimation context and impact of combined techniques on the accuracy of UCP. Method: We used the systematic literature review methodology proposed by Kitchenham and Charters. This includes searching for the most relevant papers, selecting quality papers, extracting data and drawing results. Result: The authors of UCP research paper, are generally not aware of previous published results and conclusions in the field of UCP effort estimation. There is a lack of UCP related publications in the top software engineering journals. This makes a conclusion that such papers are not useful for the community. Furthermore, most articles used small numbers of projects which cannot support generalizing the conclusion in most cases. Conclusions: There are multiple research directions for UCP method that have not been examined so far such as validating the algebraic construction of UCP based on industrial data. Also, there is a need for standard automated tools that govern the process of translating use case diagram into its corresponding UCP metrics. Although there is an increase interest among researchers to collect industrial data and build effort prediction models based on machine learning methods, the quality of data is still subject to debate
Software defect prediction is an important aspect of preventive maintenance of a software. Many techniques have been employed to improve software quality through defect prediction. This paper introduces an approach of defect prediction through a machine learning algorithm, support vector machines (SVM), by using the code smells as the factor. Smell prediction model based on support vector machines was used to predict defects in the subsequent releases of the eclipse software. The results signify the role of smells in predicting the defects of a software. The results can further be used as a ba…
This paper studies the problem of predicting the coding effort for a subsequent year of development by analysing metrics extracted from project repositories, with an emphasis on projects containing XML code. The study considers thirteen open source projects and applies machine learning algorithms to generate models to predict one-year coding effort, measured in terms of lines of code added, modified and deleted. Both organisational and code metrics associated to revisions are taken into account. The results show that coding effort is highly determined by the expertise of developers while sourc…
Software development projects involve the use of a wide range of tools to produce a software artifact. Software repositories such as source control systems have become a focus for emergent research because they are a source of rich information regarding software development projects. The mining of such repositories is becoming increasingly common with a view to gaining a deeper understanding of the development process.
Software development tasks must be performed successfully to achieve software quality and customer satisfaction. Knowing whether software tasks are likely to fail is essential to ensure the success of software projects. Issue Tracking Systems store information of software tasks (issues) and comments, which can be useful to predict issue success; however; almost no research on this topic exists. This work studies the usefulness of textual descriptions of issues and comments for predicting whether issues will be resolved successfully or not. Issues and comments of 588 software projects were extr…
Software effort estimation in the early stages of the software life cycle is one of the most essential and daunting tasks for project managers. In this research, a new model based on non-linear regression analysis is proposed to predict software effort from use case diagrams. It is concluded that, where software size is classified from small to very large, one linear or non-linear equation for effort estimation cannot be applied. Our model with three different non-linear regression equations can incorporate the different ranges in software size.
Software Cost Estimation with resounding reliability,productivity and development effort is a challenging and onerous task. This has incited the software community to give much needed thrust and delve into extensive research in software effort estimation for evolving sophisticated methods. Estimation by analogy is one of the expedient techniques in software effort estimation field. However, the methodology utilized for the estimation of software effort by analogy is not able to handle the categorical data in an explicit and precise manner. A new approach has been developed in this paper to est…
Reliable effort estimation remains an ongoing challenge to software engineers. Accurate effort estimation is the state of art of software engineering, effort estimation of software is the preliminary phase between the client and the business enterprise. The relationship between the client and the business enterprise begins with the estimation of the software. The credibility of the client to the business enterprise increases with the accurate estimation. Effort estimation often requires generalizing from a small number of historical projects. Generalization from such limited experience is an i…
Effort estimation is a key factor for software project success, defined as delivering software of agreed quality and functionality within schedule and budget. Traditionally, effort estimation has been used for planning and tracking project resources. Effort estimation methods founded on those goals typically focus on providing exact estimates and usually do not support objectives that have recently become important within the software industry, such as systematic and reliable analysis of causal effort dependencies. This article presents the results of a study of software effort estimation from…
Software effort estimation requires high accuracy, but accurate estimations are difficult to achieve. Increasingly, data mining is used to improve an organization's software process quality, e. g. the accuracy of effort estimations . There are a large number of different method combination exists for software effort estimation, selecting the most suitable combination becomes the subject of research in this paper. In this study, three simple preprocessors are taken (none, norm, log) and effort is measured using COCOMO model. Then results obtained from different preprocessors are compared and no…
Software development effort estimation (SDEE) generally involves leveraging the information about the effort spent in developing similar software in the past. Most organizations do not have access to sufficient and reliable forms of such data from past projects. As such, the existing SDEE methods suffer from low usage and accuracy. We propose an efficient SDEE method for open source software, which provides accurate and fast effort estimates. The significant contributions of our paper are i) Novel SDEE software metrics derived from developer activity information of various software repositorie…
Accurately estimating the software size, cost, effort and schedule is probably the biggest challenge facing software developers today. It has major implications for the management of software development because both the overestimates and underestimates have direct impact for causing damage to software companies. Lot of models have been proposed over the years by various researchers for carrying out effort estimations. Also some of the studies for early stage effort estimations suggest the importance of early estimations. New paradigms offer alternatives to estimate the software development ef…
Refactoring is the process of changing the internal structure of software to improve its quality without modifying its external behavior. Empirical studies have repeatedly shown that refactoring has a positive impact on the understandability and maintainability of software systems. However, before carrying out refactoring activities, developers need to identify refactoring opportunities. Currently, refactoring opportunity identification heavily relies on developers' expertise and intuition. In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of machine learning algorithms in predicting software re…
Studying the quality requirements (aka Non-Functional Requirements (NFR)) of a system is crucial in Requirements Engineering. Many software projects fail because of neglecting or failing to incorporate the NFR during the software life development cycle. This paper focuses on analyzing the importance of the quality requirements attributes in software effort estimation models based on the Desharnais dataset. The Desharnais dataset is a collection of eighty one software projects of twelve attributes developed by a Canadian software house. The analysis includes studying the influence of each of th…
Relaying on early effort estimation to predict the required number of resources is not often sufficient, and could lead to under or over estimation. It is widely acknowledge that that software development process should be refined regularly and that software prediction made at early stage of software development is yet kind of guesses. Even good predictions are not sufficient with inherent uncertainty and risks. The stage-effort estimation allows project manager to re-allocate correct number of resources, re-schedule project and control project progress to finish on time and within budget. In …
Software remodularization through clustering is a common practice to improve internal software quality. However, the true benefit of software clustering is only realized if developers follow through with the recommended refactoring suggestions, which can be complex and time-consuming. Simply producing clustering results is not enough to realize the benefits of remodularization. For the recommended refactoring operations to have an impact, developers must follow through with them. However, this is often a difficult task due to certain refactoring operations' complexity and time-consuming nature…
Many cost estimation models have been proposed over the last three decades. In this study, we investigate fuzzy ID3 decision tree as a method for software effort estimation. Fuzzy ID software effort estimation model is designed by incorporating the principles of ID3 decision tree and the concepts of the fuzzy settheoretic; permitting the model to handle uncertain and imprecise data when presenting the software projects. MMRE (Mean Magnitude of Relative Error) and Pred(l) (Prediction at level l) are used, as measures of prediction accuracy, for this study. A series of experiments is reported us…
Software development effort estimation is one of the most major activities in software project management. A number of models have been proposed to construct a relationship between software size and effort; however we still have problems for effort estimation. This is because project data, available in the initial stages of project is often incomplete, inconsistent, uncertain and unclear. The need for accurate effort estimation in software industry is still a challenge. Artificial Neural Network models are more suitable in such situations. The present paper is concerned with developing softwar…
Industrial practitioners now face a bewildering array of possible configurations for effort estimation. How to select the best one for a particular dataset? This paper introduces OIL (short for optimized learning), a novel configuration tool for effort estimation based on differential evolution. When tested on 945 software projects, OIL significantly improved effort estimations, after exploring just a few configurations (just a few dozen). Further OIL's results are far better than two methods in widespread use: estimation-via-analogy and a recent state-of-the-art baseline published at TOSEM'15…
Development effort is an undeniable part of the project management which considerably influences the success of project. Inaccurate and unreliable estimation of effort can easily lead to the failure of project. Due to the special specifications, accurate estimation of effort in the software projects is a vital management activity that must be carefully done to avoid from the unforeseen results. However numerous effort estimation methods have been proposed in this field, the accuracy of estimates is not satisfying and the attempts continue to improve the performance of estimation methods. Prior…
Software effort estimation is a critical part of software engineering. Although many techniques and algorithmic models have been developed and implemented by practitioners, accurate software effort prediction is still a challenging endeavor. In order to address this issue, a novel soft computing framework was previously developed. Our study utilizes this novel framework to develop an approach combining the neuro-fuzzy technique with the System Evaluation and Estimation of Resource - Software Estimation Model (SEER-SEM). Moreover, our study assesses the performance of the proposed model by desi…
In this paper, we propose improvements in how estimation bias, e.g., the tendency towards under-estimating the effort, is measured. The proposed approach emphasizes the need to know what the estimates are meant to represent, i.e., the type of estimate we evaluate and the need for a match between the type of estimate given and the bias measure used. We show that even perfect estimates of the mean effort will not lead to an expectation of zero estimation bias when applying the frequently used bias measure: (actual effort - estimated effort)/actual effort. This measure will instead reward under-e…
The effort invested in a software project is probably one of the most important and most analyzed variables in recent years in the process of project management. The limitation of algorithmic effort prediction models is their inability to cope with uncertainties and imprecision surrounding software projects at the early development stage. More recently attention has turned to a variety of machine learning methods, and soft computing in particular to predict software development effort. Soft computing is a consortium of methodologies centering in fuzzy logic, artificial neural networks, and evo…
[Background:] Software effort prediction methods and models typically assume positive correlation between software product complexity and development effort. However, conflicting observations, i.e. negative correlation between product complexity and actual effort, have been witnessed from our experience with the COCOMO81 dataset. [Aim:] Given our doubt about whether the observed phenomenon is a coincidence, this study tries to investigate if an increase in product complexity can result in the abovementioned counter-intuitive trend in software development projects. [Method:] A modified associat…
In this research we use a data stream approach to mining data and construct Decision Tree models that predict software build outcomes in terms of software metrics that are derived from source code used in the software construction process. The rationale for using the data stream approach was to track the evolution of the prediction model over time as builds are incrementally constructed from previous versions either to remedy errors or to enhance functionality. As the volume of data available for mining from the software repository that we used was limited, we synthesized new data instances th…
Expert judgment for software effort estimation is oriented toward direct evidences that refer to actual effort of similar projects or activities through experts' experiences. However, the availability of direct evidences implies the requirement of suitable experts together with past data. The circumstantial-evidence-based judgment proposed in this paper focuses on the development experiences deposited in human knowledge, and can then be used to qualitatively estimate implementation effort of different proposals of a new project by rational inference. To demonstrate the process of circumstantia…
Estimating the effort of software systems is an essential topic in software engineering, carrying out an estimation process reliably and accurately for a software forms a vital part of the software development phases. Many researchers have utilized different methods and techniques hopping to find solutions to this issue, such techniques include COCOMO, SEER-SEM,SLIM and others. Recently, Artificial Intelligent techniques are being utilized to solve such problems; different studies have been issued focusing on techniques such as Neural Networks NN, Genetic Algorithms GA, and Genetic Programming…
Software analytics has been widely used in software engineering for many tasks such as generating effort estimates for software projects. One of the "black arts" of software analytics is tuning the parameters controlling a data mining algorithm. Such hyperparameter optimization has been widely studied in other software analytics domains (e.g. defect prediction and text mining) but, so far, has not been extensively explored for effort estimation. Accordingly, this paper seeks simple, automatic, effective and fast methods for finding good tunings for automatic software effort estimation. We intr…
Software effort estimation (SEE) models are typically developed based on an underlying assumption that all data points are equally relevant to the prediction of effort for future projects. The dynamic nature of several aspects of the software engineering process could mean that this assumption does not hold in at least some cases. This study employs three kernel estimator functions to test the stationarity assumption in three software engineering datasets that have been used in the construction of software effort estimation models. The kernel estimators are used in the generation of non-unifor…
Early software effort estimation is a hallmark of successful software project management. Building a reliable effort estimation model usually requires historical data. Unfortunately, since the information available at early stages of software development is scarce, it is recommended to use software size metrics as key cost factor of effort estimation. Use Case Points (UCP) is a prominent size measure designed mainly for object-oriented projects. Nevertheless, there are no established models that can translate UCP into its corresponding effort, therefore, most models use productivity as a secon…
Effort estimation models are a fundamental tool in software management, and used as a forecast for resources, constraints and costs associated to software development. For Free/Open Source Software (FOSS) projects, effort estimation is especially complex: professional developers work alongside occasional, volunteer developers, so the overall effort (in person-months) becomes non-trivial to determine. The objective of this work it to develop a simple effort estimation model for FOSS projects, based on the historic data of developers' effort. The model is fed with direct developer feedback to en…
Software effort estimation at early stages of project development holds great significance for the industry to meet the competitive demands of today's world. Accuracy, reliability and precision in the estimates of effort are quite desirable. The inherent imprecision present in the inputs of the algorithmic models like Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO) yields imprecision in the output, resulting in erroneous effort estimation. Fuzzy logic based cost estimation models are inherently suitable to address the vagueness and imprecision in the inputs, to make reliable and accurate estimates of effort.…
Context: Early size predictions (ESP) can lead to errors in effort predictions for software projects. This problem is particular acute in parametric effort models that give extra weight to size factors (for example, the COCOMO model assumes that effort is exponentially proportional to project size). Objective: To test if effort estimates are crippled by bad ESP. Method: Document inaccuracies in early size estimates. Use those error sizes to determine the implications of those inaccuracies via a Monte Carlo perturbation analysis of effort models and an analysis of the equations used in those ef…
Effort estimation is a complex area in decision-making, and is influenced by a diversity of factors that could increase the estimation error. The effects on effort estimation accuracy of having obsolete requirements in specifications have not yet been studied. This study aims at filling that gap. A total of 150 students were asked to provide effort estimates for different amounts of requirements, and one group was explicitly told to disregard some of the given requirements. The results show that even the extra text instructing participants to exclude requirements in the estimation task, had th…
This paper describes an approach for user (e.g. SW architect) assisting in software processes. The approach observes the user's action and tries to predict his next step. For this we use approaches in the area of machine learning (sequence learning) and adopt these for the use in software processes. Keywords: Software engineering, Software process description languages, Software processes, Machine learning, Sequence prediction
Software effort estimation (SEE) is a core activity in all software processes and development lifecycles. A range of increasingly complex methods has been considered in the past 30 years for the prediction of effort, often with mixed and contradictory results. The comparative assessment of effort prediction methods has therefore become a common approach when considering how best to predict effort over a range of project types. Unfortunately, these assessments use a variety of sampling methods and error measurements, making comparison with other work difficult. This article proposes an automati…
Software effort estimation accuracy is a key factor in effective planning, controlling and to deliver a successful software project within budget and schedule. The overestimation and underestimation both are the key challenges for future software development, henceforth there is a continuous need for accuracy in software effort estimation (SEE). The researchers and practitioners are striving to identify which machine learning estimation technique gives more accurate results based on evaluation measures, datasets and the other relevant attributes. The authors of related research are generally n…
Bug prediction is the process of training a machine learning model on software metrics and fault information to predict bugs in software entities. While feature selection is an important step in building a robust prediction model, there is insufficient evidence about its impact on predicting the number of bugs in software systems. We study the impact of both correlation-based feature selection (CFS) filter methods and wrapper feature selection methods on five widely-used prediction models and demonstrate how these models perform with or without feature selection to predict the number of bugs i…
The objective of this research work is to improve the degree of excellence by removing the number of exceptions from the software. The modern age is more concerned with the quality of software. Extensive research is being carried out in this direction. The rate of improvement of quality of software largely depends on the development time. This development time is chiefly calculated in clock hours. However development time does not reflect the effort put in by the developer. A better parameter can be the rate of improvement of quality level or the rate of improvement of the degree of excellence…
The size of a software artifact influences the software quality and impacts the development process. In industry, when software size exceeds certain thresholds, memory errors accumulate and development tools might not be able to cope anymore, resulting in a lengthy program start up times, failing builds, or memory problems at unpredictable times. Thus, foreseeing critical growth in software modules meets a high demand in industrial practice. Predicting the time when the size grows to the level where maintenance is needed prevents unexpected efforts and helps to spot problematic artifacts befor…
Background: It is widely recognized that software effort estimation is a regression problem. Model Tree (MT) is one of the Machine Learning based regression techniques that is useful for software effort estimation, but as other machine learning algorithms, the MT has a large space of configuration and requires to carefully setting its parameters. The choice of such parameters is a dataset dependent so no general guideline can govern this process which forms the motivation of this work. Aims: This study investigates the effect of using the most recent optimization algorithm called Bees algorith…
Object oriented design is becoming more popular in software development and object oriented design metrics which is an essential part of software environment. The main goal in this paper is to predict factors of MOOD method for OO using a statistical approach. Therefore, linear regression model is used to find the relationship between factors of MOOD method and their influences on OO software measurements. Fortunately, through this process a prediction could be made for the line of code (LOC), number of classes (NOC), number of methods (NOM), and number of attributes (NOA). These measurements …
Software effort estimation plays a critical role in project management. Erroneous results may lead to overestimating or underestimating effort, which can have catastrophic consequences on project resources. Machine-learning techniques are increasingly popular in the field. Fuzzy logic models, in particular, are widely used to deal with imprecise and inaccurate data. The main goal of this research was to design and compare three different fuzzy logic models for predicting software estimation effort: Mamdani, Sugeno with constant output and Sugeno with linear output. To assist in the design of t…
One of the significant objectives of software engineering community is to use effective and useful models for precise calculation of effort in software cost estimation. The existing techniques cannot handle the dataset having categorical variables efficiently including the commonly used analogy method. Also, the project attributes of cost estimation are measured in terms of linguistic values whose imprecision leads to confusion and ambiguity while explaining the process. There are no definite set of models which can efficiently handle the dataset having categorical variables and endure the maj…
It seems logical to assert that the dynamic nature of software engineering practice would mean that software effort estimation (SEE) modelling should take into account project start and completion dates. That is, we should build models for future projects based only on data from completed projects; and we should prefer data from recent similar projects over data from older similar projects. Research in SEE modelling generally ignores these recommendations. In this study two different model development approaches that take project timing into account are applied to two publicly available datase…
The aims of our research are to evaluate the prediction performance of the proposed neuro-fuzzy model with System Evaluation and Estimation of Resource Software Estimation Model (SEER-SEM) in software estimation practices and to apply the proposed architecture that combines the neuro-fuzzy technique with different algorithmic models. In this paper, an approach combining the neuro-fuzzy technique and the SEER-SEM effort estimation algorithm is described. This proposed model possesses positive characteristics such as learning ability, decreased sensitivity, effective generalization, and knowledg…
Software effort estimation models are typically developed based on an underlying assumption that all data points are equally relevant to the prediction of effort for future projects. The dynamic nature of several aspects of the software engineering process could mean that this assumption does not hold in at least some cases. This study employs three kernel estimator functions to test the stationarity assumption in five software engineering datasets that have been used in the construction of software effort estimation models. The kernel estimators are used in the generation of nonuniform weight…
Models for effort and cost estimation are important for distributed software development as well as for collocated software and system development. Standard cost models only insufficiently consider the characteristics of distributed development such as dissimilar abilities at the different sites or significant overhead due to remote collaboration. Therefore, explicit cost models for distributed development are needed. In this article, we present the initial development of a cost overhead model for a Spanish global software development organization. The model was developed using the CoBRA appro…
Bellwether effect refers to the existence of exemplary projects (called the Bellwether) within a historical dataset to be used for improved prediction performance. Recent studies have shown an implicit assumption of using recently completed projects (referred to as moving window) for improved prediction accuracy. In this paper, we investigate the Bellwether effect on software effort estimation accuracy using moving windows. The existence of the Bellwether was empirically proven based on six postulations. We apply statistical stratification and Markov chain methodology to select the Bellwether …
Software development effort estimation (SDEE) is one of the main tasks in software project management. It is crucial for a project manager to efficiently predict the effort or cost of a software project in a bidding process, since overestimation will lead to bidding loss and underestimation will cause the company to lose money. Several SDEE models exist; machine learning models, especially neural network models, are among the most prominent in the field. In this study, four different neural network models: Multilayer Perceptron, General Regression Neural Network, Radial Basis Function Neural N…
Estimating software effort has been a largely unsolved problem for decades. One of the main reasons that hinders building accurate estimation models is the often heterogeneous nature of software data with a complex structure. Typically, building effort estimation models from local data tends to be more accurate than using the entire data. Previous studies have focused on the use of clustering techniques and decision trees to generate local and coherent data that can help in building local prediction models. However, these approaches may fall short in some aspect due to limitations in finding o…
The pervasive adoption of Continuous Integration practices -- both in industry and open source projects -- has led software building to become a daily activity for thousands of developers around the world. Companies such as Microsoft have invested in in-house infrastructures with the goal of optimizing the build process. CloudBuild, a distributed and caching build service developed internally by Microsoft, runs the build process in parallel in the cloud and relies on caching to accelerate builds. This allows for agile development and rapid delivery of software even several times a day. However…
As demand for computer software continually increases, software scope and complexity become higher than ever. The software industry is in real need of accurate estimates of the project under development. Software development effort estimation is one of the main processes in software project management. However, overestimation and underestimation may cause the software industry loses. This study determines which technique has better effort prediction accuracy and propose combined techniques that could provide better estimates. Eight different ensemble models to estimate effort with Ensemble Mod…
