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arXiv 2012.06919cs.LG

Offline Policy Selection under Uncertainty

University of Alberta(阿尔伯塔大学);Google Research Brain Team(谷歌研究大脑团队)

Mengjiao Yang, Bo Dai, Ofir Nachum, George Tucker, Dale Schuurmans

英文摘要:

The presence of uncertainty in policy evaluation significantly complicates the process of policy ranking and selection in real-world settings. We formally consider offline policy selection as learning preferences over a set of policy prospects given a fixed experience dataset. While one can select or rank policies based on point estimates of their policy values or high-confidence intervals, access to the full distribution over one's belief of the policy value enables more flexible selection algorithms under a wider range of downstream evaluation metrics. We propose BayesDICE for estimating this belief distribution in terms of posteriors of distribution correction ratios derived from stochastic constraints (as opposed to explicit likelihood, which is not available). Empirically, BayesDICE is highly competitive to existing state-of-the-art approaches in confidence interval estimation. More importantly, we show how the belief distribution estimated by BayesDICE may be used to rank policies with respect to any arbitrary downstream policy selection metric, and we empirically demonstrate that this selection procedure significantly outperforms existing approaches, such as ranking policies according to mean or high-confidence lower bound value estimates.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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