User dynamics in online social networks have a significant impact on not only the online community but also real-world activities. As examples, we can mention explosive user dynamics triggered by social polarization, echo chamber phenomena, fake news, etc. Explosive user dynamics are frequently called online flaming. The wave equation-based model for online social networks (called the oscillation model) is a theoretical model proposed to describe user dynamics in online social networks. This model can be used to understand the relationship between explosive user dynamics and the structure of social networks. However, since the oscillation model was introduced as a purely theoretical model of social networks, it is necessary to confirm whether the model describes real phenomena correctly or not. In this paper, we first show a prediction from the oscillation model; the low-frequency oscillation mode of user dynamics will be dominant when the structure of online social networks changes so that user activity is activated. To verify the predictions with actual data, we show spectral analyses of both the log data of posts on an electronic bulletin board site and the frequency data of word search from Google Trends. The results support the predictions from the theoretical model.
Social media play an increasingly important role in political communication. Various studies investigated how individuals adopt social media for political discussion, to share their views about politics and policy, or to mobilize and protest against social issues. Yet, little attention has been devoted to the main actors of political discussions: the politicians. In this paper, we explore the topics of discussion of U.S. President Obama and the 50 U.S. State Governors using Twitter data and agenda-setting theory as a tool to describe the patterns of daily political discussion, uncovering the m…
In this paper, a method of modeling the dynamics of electronic discussions is proposed based on the so called FOPDT model (First Order Plus Dead Time) known from the process control. Knowledge of the model points to possibility of estimating dynamic movements in discussions as well as understanding and designing their maintaining and guidance. Real discussions are processed.
Online social media (OSM) has a enormous influence in today's world. Some individuals view OSM as fertile ground for abuse and use it to disseminate misinformation and political propaganda, slander competitors, and spread spam. The crowdturfing industry employs large numbers of bots and human workers to manipulate OSM and misrepresent public opinion. The detection of online discussion topics manipulated by OSM \emph{abusers} is an emerging issue attracting significant attention. In this paper, we propose an approach for quantifying the authenticity of online discussions based on the similarity…
In many domains of life, business and management, numerous problems are addressed by small groups of individuals engaged in face-to-face discussions. While research in social psychology has a long history of studying the determinants of small group performances, the internal dynamics that govern a group discussion is not yet well understood. Here, we rely on computational methods based on network analyses and opinion dynamics to described how individuals influence each other during a group discussion. We consider the situation in which a small group of three individuals engages in a discussion…
Increasingly people form opinions based on information they consume on online social media. As a result, it is crucial to understand what type of content attracts people's attention on social media and drive discussions. In this paper we focus on online discussions. Can we predict which comments and what content gets the highest attention in an online discussion? How does this content differ from community to community? To accomplish this, we undertake a unique study of Reddit involving a large sample comments from 11 popular subreddits with different properties. We introduce a large number of…
Modeling user engagement dynamics on social media has compelling applications in user-persona detection and political discourse mining. Most existing approaches depend heavily on knowledge of the underlying user network. However, a large number of discussions happen on platforms that either lack any reliable social network or reveal only partially the inter-user ties (Reddit, Stackoverflow). Many approaches require observing a discussion for some considerable period before they can make useful predictions. In real-time streaming scenarios, observations incur costs. Lastly, most models do not c…
As the use of social platforms continues to evolve, in areas such as cyber-security and defence, it has become imperative to develop adaptive methods for tracking, identifying and investigating cyber-related activities on these platforms. This paper introduces a new approach for detecting cyber-related discussions in online social platforms using a candidate set of terms that are representative of the cyber domain. The objective of this paper is to create a cyber lexicon with cyber-related terms that is applicable to the automatic detection of cyber activities across various online platforms. …
Cryptocurrencies have recently experienced a new wave of price volatility and interest; activity within social media communities relating to cryptocurrencies has increased significantly. There is currently limited documented knowledge of factors which could indicate future price movements. This paper aims to decipher relationships between cryptocurrency price changes and topic discussion on social media to provide, among other things, an understanding of which topics are indicative of future price movements. To achieve this a well-known dynamic topic modelling approach is applied to social med…
As a means of modern communication tools, online discussion forums have become an increasingly popular platform that allows asynchronous online interactions. People share thoughts and opinions through posting threads and replies, which form a unique communication structure between main threads and associated replies. It is significant to understand the information diffusion pattern under such a communication structure, where an essential task is to predict the arrival time of future events. In this work, we proposed a novel yet simple framework, called SocialGrid, for modeling events in online…
We study user behavior in the courses offered by a major Massive Online Open Course (MOOC) provider during the summer of 2013. Since social learning is a key element of scalable education in MOOCs and is done via online discussion forums, our main focus is in understanding forum activities. Two salient features of MOOC forum activities drive our research: 1. High decline rate: for all courses studied, the volume of discussions in the forum declines continuously throughout the duration of the course. 2. High-volume, noisy discussions: at least 30% of the courses produce new discussion threads a…
Most previous research on online discussions of atheism has focused on atheism within a Christian context. In contrast, discussions about atheism in the Arab world and from Islamic background are relatively poorly studied. An added complication is that open atheism is against the law in some Arab countries, which may further restrict atheist activity on social media. In this work, we explore atheistic discussion in the Arab Twittersphere. We identify four relevant categories of Twitter users according to the content they post: atheistic, theistic, tanweeri (religious renewal), and other. We ch…
We propose a novel attention based hierarchical LSTM model to classify discourse act sequences in social media conversations, aimed at mining data from online discussion using textual meanings beyond sentence level. The very uniqueness of the task is the complete categorization of possible pragmatic roles in informal textual discussions, contrary to extraction of question-answers, stance detection or sarcasm identification which are very much role specific tasks. Early attempt was made on a Reddit discussion dataset. We train our model on the same data, and present test results on two differen…
California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Tracking and collecting fast-evolving online discussions provides vast data for studying social media usage and its role in people's public lives. However, collecting social media data using a static set of keywords fails to satisfy the growing need to monitor dynamic conversations and to study fast-changing topics. We propose a dynamic keyword search method to maximize the coverage of relevant information in fast-evolving online discussions. The method uses word embedding models to represent the semantic relations between keywords and predictive models to forecast the future time series. We a…
We study the evolution of long-lived controversial debates as manifested on Twitter from 2011 to 2016. Specifically, we explore how the structure of interactions and content of discussion varies with the level of collective attention, as evidenced by the number of users discussing a topic. Spikes in the volume of users typically correspond to external events that increase the public attention on the topic -- as, for instance, discussions about `gun control' often erupt after a mass shooting. This work is the first to study the dynamic evolution of polarized online debates at such scale. By emp…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；GESIS（莱布尼茨社会科学研究所）
Online discussion platforms offer a forum to strengthen and propagate belief in misinformed conspiracy theories. Yet, they also offer avenues for conspiracy theorists to express their doubts and experiences of cognitive dissonance. Such expressions of dissonance may shed light on who abandons misguided beliefs and under which circumstances. This paper characterizes self-disclosures of dissonance about QAnon, a conspiracy theory initiated by a mysterious leader Q and popularized by their followers, anons in conspiracy theory subreddits. To understand what dissonance and disbelief mean within co…
Online discussion threads are conversational cascades in the form of posted messages that can be generally found in social systems that comprise many-to-many interaction such as blogs, news aggregators or bulletin board systems. We propose a framework based on generative models of growing trees to analyse the structure and evolution of discussion threads. We consider the growth of a discussion to be determined by an interplay between popularity, novelty and a trend (or bias) to reply to the thread originator. The relevance of these features is estimated using a full likelihood approach and all…
With people moving out of physical public spaces due to containment measures to tackle the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, online platforms become even more prominent tools to understand social discussion. Studying social media can be informative to assess how we are collectively coping with this unprecedented global crisis. However, social media platforms are also populated by bots, automated accounts that can amplify certain topics of discussion at the expense of others. In this paper, we study 43.3M English tweets about COVID-19 and provide early evidence of the use of bots to promot…
Health-related rumors spreading online during a public crisis may pose a serious threat to people's well-being. Existing crisis informatics research lacks in-depth insights into the characteristics of health rumors and the efforts to debunk them on social media in a pandemic. To fill this gap, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of four months of rumor-related online discussion during COVID-19 on Weibo, a Chinese microblogging site. Results suggest that the dread (cause fear) type of health rumors provoked significantly more discussions and lasted longer than the wish (raise hope) type. We fur…
Today online social networks have a high impact in our society as more and more people use them for communicating with each other, express their opinions, participating in public discussions, etc. In particular, Twitter is one of the most popular social network platforms people mainly use for political discussions. This attracted the interest of many research studies that analyzed social phenomena on Twitter, by collecting data, analysing communication patterns, and exploring the structure of user networks. While previous works share many common methodologies for data collection and analysis, …
Social Contagion in COVID-19 Discussions within the Belgian Reddit Community: A Statistical and Modeling Study
BionamiX, Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University（根特大学）；Department of Economics, Ghent University（根特大学）；Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University（根特大学）；Department of Public and Ecosystem Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）
University of Pretoria（比勒陀利亚大学）；CSIR（南非科学与工业研究理事会）；Mail and Guardian（《邮卫报》）
Social Media can be used to extract discussion topics during a disaster. With the COVID-19 pandemic impact on South Africa, we need to understand how the law and regulation promulgated by the government in response to the pandemic contrasts with discussion topics social media users have been engaging in. In this work, we expand on traditional media analysis by using Social Media discussions driven by or directed to South African government officials. We find topics that are similar as well as different in some cases. The findings can inform further study into social media during disaster setti…
Studies of online social influence have demonstrated that friends have important effects on many types of behavior in a wide variety of settings. However, we know much less about how influence works among relative strangers in digital public squares, despite important conversations happening in such spaces. We present the results of a study on large public Facebook pages where we randomly used two different methods--most recent and social feedback--to order comments on posts. We find that the social feedback condition results in higher quality viewed comments and response comments. After measu…
Sony AI（索尼人工智能研究院）；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）
A significant share of political discourse occurs online on social media platforms. Policymakers and researchers try to understand the role of social media design in shaping the quality of political discourse around the globe. In the past decades, scholarship on political discourse theory has produced distinct characteristics of different types of prominent political rhetoric such as deliberative, civic, or demagogic discourse. This study investigates the relationship between social media reaction mechanisms (i.e., upvotes, downvotes) and political rhetoric in user discussions by engaging in a…
Illinois Institute of Technology（伊利诺伊理工学院）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）
Online antisocial behavior, such as cyberbullying, harassment, and trolling, is a widespread problem that threatens free discussion and has negative physical and mental health consequences for victims and communities. While prior work has proposed automated methods to identify hostile comments in online discussions, these methods work retrospectively on comments that have already been posted, making it difficult to intervene before an interaction escalates. In this paper we instead consider the problem of forecasting future hostilities in online discussions, which we decompose into two tasks: …
We propose an analytical framework able to investigate discussions about polarized topics in online social networks from many different angles. The framework supports the analysis of social networks along several dimensions: time, space and sentiment. We show that the proposed analytical framework and the methodology can be used to mine knowledge about the perception of complex social phenomena. We selected the refugee crisis discussions over Twitter as the case study. This difficult and controversial topic is an increasingly important issue for the EU. The raw stream of tweets is enriched wit…
Online social network (OSN) discussion groups are exerting significant effects on political dialogue. In the absence of access control mechanisms, any user can contribute to any OSN thread. Individuals can exploit this characteristic to execute targeted attacks, which increases the potential for subsequent malicious behaviors such as phishing and malware distribution. These kinds of actions will also disrupt bridges among the media, politicians, and their constituencies. For the concern of Security Management, blending malicious cyberattacks with online social interactions has introduced a bra…
The pandemic required efficient allocation of public resources and transforming existing ways of societal functions. To manage any crisis, governments and public health researchers exploit the information available to them in order to make informed decisions, also defined as situational awareness. Gathering situational awareness using social media has been functional to manage epidemics. Previous research focused on using discussions during periods of epidemic crises on social media platforms like Twitter, Reddit, or Facebook and developing NLP techniques to filter out relevant discussions fro…
The emergence of social media has largely eased the way people receive information and participate in public discussions. However, in countries with strict regulations on discussions in the public space, social media is no exception. To limit the degree of dissent or inhibit the spread of "harmful" information, a common approach is to impose information operations such as censorship/suspension on social media. In this paper, we focus on a study of censorship on Weibo, the counterpart of Twitter in China. Specifically, we 1) create a web-scraping pipeline and collect a large dataset solely focu…
This paper describes a Social Network Analysis toolkit to monitor an Enterprise Social Network and help analyzing informal leadership as a function of social ties and topic discussions. The toolkit has been developed in the context of a regional project, Fiordaliso, funded by Regione Lazio (a region of central Italy) and leaded by Reply, an international network of specialized companies in the field of digital services.
With an expansive and ubiquitously available gold mine of educational data, Massive Open Online courses (MOOCs) have become the an important foci of learning analytics research. In this paper, we investigate potential reasons as to why are these digitalized learning repositories being plagued with huge attrition rates. We analyze an ongoing online course offered in Coursera using a social network perspective, with an objective to identify students who are actively participating in course discussions and those who are potentially at a risk of dropping off. We additionally perform extensive foru…
Hashtags play a cardinal role in the classification of topics over social media. A sudden burst on the usage of certain hashtags, representing specific topics, give rise to trending topics. Trending topics can be immensely useful as it can spark a discussion on a particular subject. However, it can also be used to suppress an ongoing pivotal matter. This paper discusses how a significant economic crisis was covered by triggering a current trending topic. A case study on politics in India has been studied over the past two months. The analysis shows how the issue on inflation was attacked by th…
For many European countries, in 2015 the refugee situation developed from a remote tragedy reported upon in the news to a situation they have to deal with in their own neighborhood. Driven by this observation, we investigated the development of the perception of the refugee situation during 2015 in Twitter. Starting from a dataset of 1.7 Million tweets covering refugee-related topics from May to December 2015, we investigated how the discussion on refugees changed over time, in different countries as well as in relationship with the evolution of the actual situation. In this paper we report an…
Social learning, i.e., students learning from each other through social interactions, has the potential to significantly scale up instruction in online education. In many cases, such as in massive open online courses (MOOCs), social learning is facilitated through discussion forums hosted by course providers. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic model for the process of learners posting on such forums, using point processes. Different from existing works, our method integrates topic modeling of the post text, timescale modeling of the decay in post activity over time, and learner topic in…
This article examines the principles outlined in the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in the context of social network data. We provide both a practical guide to GDPR-compliant social network data processing, covering aspects such as data collection, consent, anonymization and data analysis, and a broader discussion of the problems emerging when the general principles on which the regulation is based are instantiated to this research area.
Online discourse covers a wide range of topics and many actors tailor their content to impact online discussions through carefully crafted messages and targeted campaigns. Yet the scale and diversity of online media content make it difficult to evaluate the impact of a particular message. In this paper, we present a new technique that leverages semantic similarity to quantify the change in the discussion after a particular message has been published. We use a set of press releases from environmental organisations and tweets from the climate change debate to show that our novel approach reveals…
The Collective Turing Test: Large Language Models Can Generate Realistic Multi-User Discussions
University of Zurich（苏黎世大学）；University of Konstanz（康斯坦茨大学）；Complexity Science Hub（复杂性科学中心）；University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland（瑞士南部应用科学与艺术大学）
Topical discussion networks (TDNs) are networks centered around a discourse concerning a particular concept, whether in real life or online. This paper analogises the population of such networks to populations encountered in mathematical ecology, and seeks to evaluate whether three metrics of diversity used in ecology - Shannon's $H'$, Simpson's $λ$ and $E_{var}$ proposed by Smith and Wilson - give valuable information about the composition and diversity of TDNs. It concludes that each metric has its particular use, and the choice of metric is best understood in the context of the particular r…
Collective, especially group-based, managerial decision making is crucial in organizations. Using an evolutionary theoretic approach to collective decision making, agent-based simulations were conducted to investigate how human collective decision making would be affected by the agents' diversity in problem understanding and/or behavior in discussion, as well as by their social network structure. Simulation results indicated that groups with consistent problem understanding tended to produce higher utility values of ideas and displayed better decision convergence, but only if there was no grou…
This article presents a systematic analysis of the patterns of behavior of individuals as well as groups observed in community-driven platforms for discussion like Reddit, where users usually exchange information and viewpoints on their topics of interest. We perform a statistical analysis of the behavior of posts and model the users' interactions around them. A platform like Reddit which has grown exponentially, starting from a very small community to one of the largest social networks, with its large user base and popularity harboring a variety of behavior of users in terms of their activity…
