This paper presents a principled approach for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples in deep neural networks (DNN). Modeling probability distributions on deep features has recently emerged as an effective, yet computationally cheap method to detect OOD samples in DNN. However, the features produced by a DNN at any given layer do not fully occupy the corresponding high-dimensional feature space. We apply linear statistical dimensionality reduction techniques and nonlinear manifold-learning techniques on the high-dimensional features in order to capture the true subspace spanned by the features. We hypothesize that such lower-dimensional feature embeddings can mitigate the curse of dimensionality, and enhance any feature-based method for more efficient and effective performance. In the context of uncertainty estimation and OOD, we show that the log-likelihood score obtained from the distributions learnt on this lower-dimensional subspace is more discriminative for OOD detection. We also show that the feature reconstruction error, which is the $L_2$-norm of the difference between the original feature and the pre-image of its embedding, is highly effective for OOD detection and in some cases superior to the log-likelihood scores. The benefits of our approach are demonstrated on image features by detecting OOD images, using popular DNN architectures on commonly used image datasets such as CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and SVHN.
This paper presents a fast, principled approach for detecting anomalous and out-of-distribution (OOD) samples in deep neural networks (DNN). We propose the application of linear statistical dimensionality reduction techniques on the semantic features produced by a DNN, in order to capture the low-dimensional subspace truly spanned by said features. We show that the "feature reconstruction error" (FRE), which is the $\ell_2$-norm of the difference between the original feature in the high-dimensional space and the pre-image of its low-dimensional reduced embedding, is highly effective for OOD an…
The application of machine learning (ML) techniques in wireless communication domain has seen a tremendous growth over the years especially in the wireless sensing domain. However, the questions surrounding the ML model's inference reliability, and uncertainty associated with its predictions are never answered or communicated properly. This itself raises a lot of questions on the transparency of these ML systems. Developing ML systems with probabilistic modeling can solve this problem easily, where one can quantify uncertainty whether it is arising from the data (irreducible error or aleotoric…
Institute of Electrical Engineering “Nikola Tesla”（“尼古拉·特斯拉”电气工程研究所）；EE Institute “Nikola Tesla”（“尼古拉·特斯拉”电气工程研究所）
In this paper, we introduce elements of probabilistic model that is suitable for modeling of learning algorithms in biologically plausible artificial neural networks framework. Model is based on two of the main concepts in quantum physics - a density matrix and the Born rule. As an example, we will show that proposed probabilistic interpretation is suitable for modeling of on-line learning algorithms for PSA, which are preferably realized by a parallel hardware based on very simple computational units. Proposed concept (model) can be used in the context of improving algorithm convergence speed…
Discovering and clustering subspaces in high-dimensional data is a fundamental problem of machine learning with a wide range of applications in data mining, computer vision, and pattern recognition. Earlier methods divided the problem into two separate stages of finding the similarity matrix and finding clusters. Similar to some recent works, we integrate these two steps using a joint optimization approach. We make the following contributions: (i) we estimate the reliability of the cluster assignment for each point before assigning a point to a subspace. We group the data points into two group…
Department of Engineering, ECE, Aarhus University（丹麦奥胡斯大学工程系（ECE））
In this paper we formulate a probabilistic model for class-specific discriminant subspace learning. The proposed model can naturally incorporate the multi-modal structure of the negative class, which is neglected by existing class-specific methods. Moreover, it can be directly used to define a class-specific probabilistic classification rule in the discriminant subspace. We show that existing class-specific discriminant analysis methods are special cases of the proposed probabilistic model and, by casting them as probabilistic models, they can be extended to class-specific classifiers. We illu…
TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；Centre for Cognitive Science, TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学认知科学中心）；Hessian Center for AI (hessian.AI)（黑森州人工智能中心）
Probabilistic circuits (PCs) have become the de-facto standard for learning and inference in probabilistic modeling. We introduce Sum-Product-Attention Networks (SPAN), a new generative model that integrates probabilistic circuits with Transformers. SPAN uses self-attention to select the most relevant parts of a probabilistic circuit, here sum-product networks, to improve the modeling capability of the underlying sum-product network. We show that while modeling, SPAN focuses on a specific set of independent assumptions in every product layer of the sum-product network. Our empirical evaluation…
We present the Deep Convolutional Gaussian Mixture Model (DCGMM), a new probabilistic approach for image modeling capable of density estimation, sampling and tractable inference. DCGMM instances exhibit a CNN-like layered structure, in which the principal building blocks are convolutional Gaussian Mixture (cGMM) layers. A key innovation w.r.t. related models like sum-product networks (SPNs) and probabilistic circuits (PCs) is that each cGMM layer optimizes an independent loss function and therefore has an independent probabilistic interpretation. This modular approach permits intervening trans…
Knowledge-Aided Semantic Communication Leveraging Probabilistic Graphical Modeling
Polytechnic Institute, Zhejiang University（浙江大学理工学院）；College of Information Science and Electronic Engineering, Zhejiang University（浙江大学信息科学与工程学院）；Jinhua Institute of Zhejiang University（浙江大学金华研究院）
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；Samsung Electronics（三星电子）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）
Multivariate functional data from a complex system are naturally high-dimensional and have complex cross-correlation structure. The complexity of data structure can be observed as that (1) some functions are strongly correlated with similar features, while some others may have almost no cross-correlations with quite diverse features; and (2) the cross-correlation structure may also change over time due to the system evolution. With this regard, this paper presents a dynamic subspace learning method for multivariate functional data modeling. In particular, we consider different functions come f…
University of Almería（阿尔梅里亚大学）；Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull’Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA)（人工智能研究所（IDSIA））
InferPy is a Python package for probabilistic modeling with deep neural networks. It defines a user-friendly API that trades-off model complexity with ease of use, unlike other libraries whose focus is on dealing with very general probabilistic models at the cost of having a more complex API. In particular, this package allows to define, learn and evaluate general hierarchical probabilistic models containing deep neural networks in a compact and simple way. InferPy is built on top of Tensorflow Probability and Keras.
We present a probabilistic programmed deep kernel learning approach to personalized, predictive modeling of neurodegenerative diseases. Our analysis considers a spectrum of neural and symbolic machine learning approaches, which we assess for predictive performance and important medical AI properties such as interpretability, uncertainty reasoning, data-efficiency, and leveraging domain knowledge. Our Bayesian approach combines the flexibility of Gaussian processes with the structural power of neural networks to model biomarker progressions, without needing clinical labels for training. We run …
Jiangnan University（江南大学）；The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）
The superior interpretability and uncertainty modeling ability of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy system (TSK FS) make it possible to describe complex nonlinear systems intuitively and efficiently. However, classical TSK FS usually adopts the whole feature space of the data for model construction, which can result in lengthy rules for high-dimensional data and lead to degeneration in interpretability. Furthermore, for highly nonlinear modeling task, it is usually necessary to use a large number of rules which further weakens the clarity and interpretability of TSK FS. To address these issues, a conci…
Michigan State University（密歇根州立大学）；University of Wisconsin-Stout（威斯康星大学斯托特分校）；Texas A&M University（得克萨斯农工大学）
Over the past decade a wide spectrum of machine learning models have been developed to model the neurodegenerative diseases, associating biomarkers, especially non-intrusive neuroimaging markers, with key clinical scores measuring the cognitive status of patients. Multi-task learning (MTL) has been commonly utilized by these studies to address high dimensionality and small cohort size challenges. However, most existing MTL approaches are based on linear models and suffer from two major limitations: 1) they cannot explicitly consider upper/lower bounds in these clinical scores; 2) they lack the…
Işık University（伊希克大学）；University of Louisiana at Lafayette（路易斯安那大学拉斐特分校）；University of Southern California（南加州大学）
Alzheimer's disease is a major cause of dementia. Its diagnosis requires accurate biomarkers that are sensitive to disease stages. In this respect, we regard probabilistic classification as a method of designing a probabilistic biomarker for disease staging. Probabilistic biomarkers naturally support the interpretation of decisions and evaluation of uncertainty associated with them. In this paper, we obtain probabilistic biomarkers via Gaussian Processes. Gaussian Processes enable probabilistic kernel machines that offer flexible means to accomplish Multiple Kernel Learning. Exploiting this fl…
Mila - Quebec AI Institute（米拉-魁北克人工智能研究所）；Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）
We present energy-based generative flow networks (EB-GFN), a novel probabilistic modeling algorithm for high-dimensional discrete data. Building upon the theory of generative flow networks (GFlowNets), we model the generation process by a stochastic data construction policy and thus amortize expensive MCMC exploration into a fixed number of actions sampled from a GFlowNet. We show how GFlowNets can approximately perform large-block Gibbs sampling to mix between modes. We propose a framework to jointly train a GFlowNet with an energy function, so that the GFlowNet learns to sample from the ener…
Generative Modeling of Discrete Data Using Geometric Latent Subspaces
Institute for Mathematics, Heidelberg University（海德堡大学数学研究所）；Mannheim Institute for Intelligent Systems in Medicine, Heidelberg University（海德堡大学曼海姆智能医学系统研究所）；IWR, Heidelberg University（海德堡大学IWR研究所）；Research Station Geometry and Dynamics, Heidelberg University（海德堡大学几何与动力学研究站）
Norwegian University of Science and Technology（挪威科技大学）；Aalborg University（奥尔堡大学）
Recent advances in statistical inference have significantly expanded the toolbox of probabilistic modeling. Historically, probabilistic modeling has been constrained to (i) very restricted model classes where exact or approximate probabilistic inference were feasible, and (ii) small or medium-sized data sets which fit within the main memory of the computer. However, developments in variational inference, a general form of approximate probabilistic inference originated in statistical physics, are allowing probabilistic modeling to overcome these restrictions: (i) Approximate probabilistic infer…
University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）
In this paper we present BayesLDM, a system for Bayesian longitudinal data modeling consisting of a high-level modeling language with specific features for modeling complex multivariate time series data coupled with a compiler that can produce optimized probabilistic program code for performing inference in the specified model. BayesLDM supports modeling of Bayesian network models with a specific focus on the efficient, declarative specification of dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). The BayesLDM compiler combines a model specification with inspection of available data and outputs code for perfo…
School of Computing（计算学院）；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）
Early detection of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and identification of potential risk/beneficial factors are important for planning and administering timely interventions or preventive measures. In this paper, we learn a disease model for AD that combines genotypic and phenotypic profiles, and cognitive health metrics of patients. We propose a probabilistic generative subspace that describes the correlative, complementary and domain-specific semantics of the dependencies in multi-view, multi-modality medical data. Guided by domain knowledge and using the latent consensus between abstractions of mul…
National University of Sciences and Technology（国立科技大学）
We analyze damage propagation modeling of turbo-engines in a data-driven approach. We investigate subspace tracking assuming a low dimensional manifold structure and a static behavior during the healthy state of the machines. Our damage propagation model is based on the deviation of the data from the static behavior and uses the notion of health index as a measure of the condition. Hence, we incorporate condition-based maintenance and estimate the remaining useful life based on the current and previous health indexes. This paper proposes an algorithm that adapts well to the dynamics of the dat…
Inspired by the possibility that generative models based on quantum circuits can provide a useful inductive bias for sequence modeling tasks, we propose an efficient training algorithm for a subset of classically simulable quantum circuit models. The gradient-free algorithm, presented as a sequence of exactly solvable effective models, is a modification of the density matrix renormalization group procedure adapted for learning a probability distribution. The conclusion that circuit-based models offer a useful inductive bias for classical datasets is supported by experimental results on the par…
The Alan Turing Institute（阿兰·图灵研究所）；University of Warwick（华威大学）
We introduce the probabilistic sequential matrix factorization (PSMF) method for factorizing time-varying and non-stationary datasets consisting of high-dimensional time-series. In particular, we consider nonlinear Gaussian state-space models where sequential approximate inference results in the factorization of a data matrix into a dictionary and time-varying coefficients with potentially nonlinear Markovian dependencies. The assumed Markovian structure on the coefficients enables us to encode temporal dependencies into a low-dimensional feature space. The proposed inference method is solely …
We present new techniques for automatically constructing probabilistic programs for data analysis, interpretation, and prediction. These techniques work with probabilistic domain-specific data modeling languages that capture key properties of a broad class of data generating processes, using Bayesian inference to synthesize probabilistic programs in these modeling languages given observed data. We provide a precise formulation of Bayesian synthesis for automatic data modeling that identifies sufficient conditions for the resulting synthesis procedure to be sound. We also derive a general class…
The University of Tokyo（东京大学）；National Taiwan University（台湾大学）
Generative image modeling techniques such as GAN demonstrate highly convincing image generation result. However, user interaction is often necessary to obtain the desired results. Existing attempts add interactivity but require either tailored architectures or extra data. We present a human-in-the-optimization method that allows users to directly explore and search the latent vector space of generative image modeling. Our system provides multiple candidates by sampling the latent vector space, and the user selects the best blending weights within the subspace using multiple sliders. In additio…
Normalizing flows provide a general mechanism for defining expressive probability distributions, only requiring the specification of a (usually simple) base distribution and a series of bijective transformations. There has been much recent work on normalizing flows, ranging from improving their expressive power to expanding their application. We believe the field has now matured and is in need of a unified perspective. In this review, we attempt to provide such a perspective by describing flows through the lens of probabilistic modeling and inference. We place special emphasis on the fundament…
Incorporating domain knowledge into the modeling process is an effective way to improve learning accuracy. However, as it is provided by humans, domain knowledge can only be specified with some degree of uncertainty. We propose to explicitly model such uncertainty through probabilistic constraints over the parameter space. In contrast to hard parameter constraints, our approach is effective also when the domain knowledge is inaccurate and generally results in superior modeling accuracy. We focus on generative and conditional modeling where the parameters are assigned a Dirichlet or Gaussian pr…
This letter presents a continuous probabilistic modeling methodology for spatial point cloud data using finite Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) where the number of components are adapted based on the scene complexity. Few hierarchical and adaptive methods have been proposed to address the challenge of balancing model fidelity with size. Instead, state-of-the-art mapping approaches require tuning parameters for specific use cases, but do not generalize across diverse environments. To address this gap, we utilize a self-organizing principle from information-theoretic learning to automatically adap…
Denoising diffusion probabilistic models are a promising new class of generative models that mark a milestone in high-quality image generation. This paper showcases their ability to sequentially generate video, surpassing prior methods in perceptual and probabilistic forecasting metrics. We propose an autoregressive, end-to-end optimized video diffusion model inspired by recent advances in neural video compression. The model successively generates future frames by correcting a deterministic next-frame prediction using a stochastic residual generated by an inverse diffusion process. We compare …
Johannes Kepler University Linz（约翰内斯·开普勒大学林茨分校）；Software Competence Center Hagenberg GmbH（哈根贝格软件能力中心有限公司）
Software systems are complex, and behavioral comprehension with the increasing amount of AI components challenges traditional testing and maintenance strategies.The lack of tools and methodologies for behavioral software comprehension leaves developers to testing and debugging that work in the boundaries of known scenarios. We present Probabilistic Software Modeling (PSM), a data-driven modeling paradigm for predictive and generative methods in software engineering. PSM analyzes a program and synthesizes a network of probabilistic models that can simulate and quantify the original program's be…
University of Minnesota - Twin Cities（明尼苏达大学双城分校）；Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）
The astounding success of these methods has made it imperative to obtain more explainable and trustworthy estimates from these models. In hydrology, basin characteristics can be noisy or missing, impacting streamflow prediction. For solving inverse problems in such applications, ensuring explainability is pivotal for tackling issues relating to data bias and large search space. We propose a probabilistic inverse model framework that can reconstruct robust hydrology basin characteristics from dynamic input weather driver and streamflow response data. We address two aspects of building more expl…
German Cancer Research Center（德国癌症研究中心）；Heidelberg University Hospital（海德堡大学医院）；Heidelberg University（海德堡大学）；Heidelberg Institute of Radiation Oncology（海德堡放射肿瘤学研究所）；Heidelberg Ion-Beam Therapy Center（海德堡离子束治疗中心）
Existing approaches to modeling the dynamics of brain tumor growth, specifically glioma, employ biologically inspired models of cell diffusion, using image data to estimate the associated parameters. In this work, we propose an alternative approach based on recent advances in probabilistic segmentation and representation learning that implicitly learns growth dynamics directly from data without an underlying explicit model. We present evidence that our approach is able to learn a distribution of plausible future tumor appearances conditioned on past observations of the same tumor.
Ivan Franko National University of Lviv（利沃夫伊万·弗兰科国立大学）
In this paper we study different approaches for time series modeling. The forecasting approaches using linear models, ARIMA alpgorithm, XGBoost machine learning algorithm are described. Results of different model combinations are shown. For probabilistic modeling the approaches using copulas and Bayesian inference are considered.
Industrial applications frequently pose a notorious challenge for state-of-the-art methods in the contexts of optimization, designing experiments and modeling unknown physical response. This problem is aggravated by limited availability of clean data, uncertainty in available physics-based models and additional logistic and computational expense associated with experiments. In such a scenario, Bayesian methods have played an impactful role in alleviating the aforementioned obstacles by quantifying uncertainty of different types under limited resources. These methods, usually deployed as a fram…
We propose a new randomized optimization method for high-dimensional problems which can be seen as a generalization of coordinate descent to random subspaces. We show that an adaptive sampling strategy for the random subspace significantly outperforms the oblivious sampling method, which is the common choice in the recent literature. The adaptive subspace can be efficiently generated by a correlated random matrix ensemble whose statistics mimic the input data. We prove that the improvement in the relative error of the solution can be tightly characterized in terms of the spectrum of the data m…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
We present an LDA approach to entity disambiguation. Each topic is associated with a Wikipedia article and topics generate either content words or entity mentions. Training such models is challenging because of the topic and vocabulary size, both in the millions. We tackle these problems using a novel distributed inference and representation framework based on a parallel Gibbs sampler guided by the Wikipedia link graph, and pipelines of MapReduce allowing fast and memory-frugal processing of large datasets. We report state-of-the-art performance on a public dataset.
Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）；University of Maryland（马里兰大学）
We present a new subspace-based method to construct probabilistic models for high-dimensional data and highlight its use in anomaly detection. The approach is based on a statistical estimation of probability density using densities of random subspaces combined with geometric averaging. In selecting random subspaces, equal representation of each attribute is used to ensure correct statistical limits. Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are used to create the probability densities for each subspace with techniques included to mitigate singularities allowing for the ability to handle both numerical an…
Probabilistic Reduced-Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Modeling with Oblique Projections
Hong Kong Institute for Data Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong（香港数据科学研究所，香港城市大学，香港）；The Institute of Data Science, Lingnan University, Hong Kong（数据科学研究所，岭南大学，香港）
We consider the problem of clustering a set of high-dimensional data points into sets of low-dimensional linear subspaces. The number of subspaces, their dimensions, and their orientations are unknown. We propose a simple and low-complexity clustering algorithm based on thresholding the correlations between the data points followed by spectral clustering. A probabilistic performance analysis shows that this algorithm succeeds even when the subspaces intersect, and when the dimensions of the subspaces scale (up to a log-factor) linearly in the ambient dimension. Moreover, we prove that the algo…
Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science（保罗·G·艾伦计算机科学学院）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Seattle, WA 98195（西雅图，华盛顿州98195）
We present pomegranate, an open source machine learning package for probabilistic modeling in Python. Probabilistic modeling encompasses a wide range of methods that explicitly describe uncertainty using probability distributions. Three widely used probabilistic models implemented in pomegranate are general mixture models, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian networks. A primary focus of pomegranate is to abstract away the complexities of training models from their definition. This allows users to focus on specifying the correct model for their application instead of being limited by their under…
Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's assumptions and reality. We propose a way to systematically detect and mitigate mismatch of a large class of probabilistic models. The idea is to raise the likelihood of each observation to a weight and then to infer both the latent variables and the weights from data. Inferring the weights allows a model to identify observations that match its assumptions and d…
Motivation: Untargeted metabolomics comprehensively characterizes small molecules and elucidates activities of biochemical pathways within a biological sample. Despite computational advances, interpreting collected measurements and determining their biological role remains a challenge. Results: To interpret measurements, we present an inference-based approach, termed Probabilistic modeling for Untargeted Metabolomics Analysis (PUMA). Our approach captures measurements and known information about the sample under study in a generative model and uses stochastic sampling to compute posterior prob…
We consider the problem of clustering noisy high-dimensional data points into a union of low-dimensional subspaces and a set of outliers. The number of subspaces, their dimensions, and their orientations are unknown. A probabilistic performance analysis of the thresholding-based subspace clustering (TSC) algorithm introduced recently in [1] shows that TSC succeeds in the noisy case, even when the subspaces intersect. Our results reveal an explicit tradeoff between the allowed noise level and the affinity of the subspaces. We furthermore find that the simple outlier detection scheme introduced …
