面对疫情的商业和消费者不确定性：欧洲国家的行业分析
Business and consumer uncertainty in the face of the pandemic: A sector analysis in European countries
摘要：
本文探讨了32个欧洲国家和欧盟（欧盟）在冠状病毒大流行期间商业和消费者不确定性的演变。由于不确定性无法直接观察到，我们使用Claveria等人的几何差异指标进行近似。（2019）。这种方法使我们能够量化32个国家的企业和消费者期望的分歧比例。我们使用了所有国家的信息欧盟委员会进行的商业和消费者调查联合协调方案中包含的每月前瞻性问题（包括行业统计调查、服务业统计调查、零售业统计调查、楼宇统计调查及消费者统计调查）。首先，我们已为分析的17条统计调查问题计算每一条的差异指标，这使我们能够估算出经济活动不同方面的不确定性比例，然后，我们使用这些指标来计算部门层面的分歧指数。我们用图表来描述不确定性程度的演变截至2020年6月，我们观察到自COVID-19危机爆发以来，各变量、行业和国家之间存在显著差异。最后，通过添加行业指标，计算了商业不确定性指标，并与消费者的指标进行了比较。同样，我们发现管理者和消费者之间的不确定性演变存在很大差异。这一分析旨在提供一个全球概览，了解冠状病毒疫情期间的经济不确定性程度部门层面的危机。
英文摘要：
This paper examines the evolution of business and consumer uncertainty amid the coronavirus pandemic in 32 European countries and the European Union (EU).Since uncertainty is not directly observable, we approximate it using the geometric discrepancy indicator of Claveria et al. (2019).This approach allows us quantifying the proportion of disagreement in business and consumer expectations of 32 countries.We have used information from all monthly forward-looking questions contained in Joint Harmonised Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys conducted by the European Commission (the industry survey, the service survey, the retail trade survey, the building survey and the consumer survey).First, we have calculated a discrepancy indicator for each of the 17 survey questions analysed, which allows us to approximate the proportion of uncertainty about different aspects of economic activity, both form the demand and the supply sides of the economy.We then use these indicators to calculate disagreement indices at the sector level.We graphic the evolution of the degree of uncertainty in the main economic sectors of the analysed economies up to June 2020.We observe marked differences, both across variables, sectors and countries since the inception of the COVID-19 crisis.Finally, by adding the sectoral indicators, an indicator of business uncertainty is calculated and compared with that of consumers.Again, we find substantial differences in the evolution of uncertainty between managers and consumers.This analysis seeks to offer a global overview of the degree of economic uncertainty in the midst of the coronavirus crisis at the sectoral level.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
