（非预期）2019冠状病毒病大流行期间医疗产品出口限制的后果
(Unintended) Consequences of export restrictions on medical goods during the Covid-19 pandemic
摘要：
于二零二零年上半年，多个国家已通过限制医疗用品出口来应对新型冠状病毒疫情带来的挑战。这些措施旨在增加国内关键货物的供应，通常用于危机时期。然而，人们对制裁的影响，特别是对实施制裁的国家的影响知之甚少。在这里，我们表明，出口禁令，总的来说，适得其反。利用冲击通过国际贸易网络扩散的模型，我们模拟了不同情景下的限制的影响。我们注意到，虽然它们对单独执行的国家有利，但它们的普遍使用使大多数国家的情况比不禁止的情况更糟。作为一个必然的结果，我们估计，在许多实施限制的国家，价格会上涨。我们还发现，即使其他国家继续实施出口禁令，限制出口禁令的成本也很小。最后，我们记录了各国在国际贸易网络中的地位变化，表明出口禁令具有地缘政治影响。
英文摘要：
In the first half of 2020, several countries have responded to the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic by restricting their export of medical supplies. Such measures are meant to increase the domestic availability of critical goods, and are commonly used in times of crisis. Yet, not much is known about their impact, especially on countries imposing them. Here we show that export bans are, by and large, counterproductive. Using a model of shock diffusion through the network of international trade, we simulate the impact of restrictions under different scenarios. We observe that while they would be beneficial to a country implementing them in isolation, their generalized use makes most countries worse off relative to a no-ban scenario. As a corollary, we estimate that prices increase in many countries imposing the restrictions. We also find that the cost of restraining from export bans is small, even when others continue to implement them. Finally, we document a change in countries' position within the international trade network, suggesting that export bans have geopolitical implications.
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