Energy forecasting has a vital role to play in smart grid (SG) systems involving various applications such as demand-side management, load shedding, and optimum dispatch. Managing efficient forecasting while ensuring the least possible prediction error is one of the main challenges posed in the grid today, considering the uncertainty and granularity in SG data. This paper presents a comprehensive and application-oriented review of state-of-the-art forecasting methods for SG systems along with recent developments in probabilistic deep learning (PDL) considering different models and architectures. Traditional point forecasting methods including statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) are extensively investigated in terms of their applicability to energy forecasting. In addition, the significance of hybrid and data pre-processing techniques to support forecasting performance is also studied. A comparative case study using the Victorian electricity consumption and American electric power (AEP) datasets is conducted to analyze the performance of point and probabilistic forecasting methods. The analysis demonstrates higher accuracy of the long-short term memory (LSTM) models with appropriate hyper-parameter tuning among point forecasting methods especially when sample sizes are larger and involve nonlinear patterns with long sequences. Furthermore, Bayesian bidirectional LSTM (BLSTM) as a probabilistic method exhibit the highest accuracy in terms of least pinball score and root mean square error (RMSE).
Military Institute of Science & Technology (MIST)（军事科学技术学院）；Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP)（孟加拉国专业大学）
Demand forecasting in power sector has become an important part of modern demand management and response systems with the rise of smart metering enabled grids. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) shows promising results in predicting time series data which can also be applied to power load demand in smart grids. In this paper, an LSTM based model using neural network architecture is proposed to forecast power demand. The model is trained with hourly energy and power usage data of four years from a smart grid. After training and prediction, the accuracy of the model is compared against the traditiona…
The field of electricity price forecasting has seen significant advances in the last years, including the development of new, more accurate forecast models. These models leverage statistical relationships in previously observed data to predict the future; however, there is a lack of analysis explaining these models, which limits their real world applicability in critical infrastructure. In this paper, using data from the Belgian electricity markets, we explore a state-of-the-art forecasting model to understand if its predictions can be trusted in more general settings than the limited context …
The electricity consumption of buildings composes a major part of the city's energy consumption. Electricity consumption forecasting enables the development of home energy management systems resulting in the future design of more sustainable houses and a decrease in total energy consumption. Energy performance in buildings is influenced by many factors like ambient temperature, humidity, and a variety of electrical devices. Therefore, multivariate prediction methods are preferred rather than univariate. The Honda Smart Home US data set was selected to compare three methods for minimizing forec…
COSYS-GRETTIA, Université Gustave Eiffel, IFSTTAR（古斯塔夫·埃菲尔大学 IFSTTAR COSYS-GRETTIA）；Polytechnique Montréal（蒙特利尔理工学院）；Interuniversitary Research Centre on Entreprise Networks, Logistics and Transport (CIRRELT)（校企网络、物流与运输跨大学研究中心）
One of the major goals of transport operators is to adapt the transport supply scheduling to the passenger demand for existing transport networks during each specific period. Another problem mentioned by operators is accurately estimating the demand for disposable ticket or pass to adapt ticket availability to passenger demand. In this context, we propose generic data shaping, allowing the use of well-known regression models (basic, statistical and machine learning models) for the long-term forecasting of passenger demand with fine-grained temporal resolution. Specifically, this paper investig…
Accurate electricity demand forecasts play a crucial role in sustainable power systems. To enable better decision-making especially for demand flexibility of the end-user, it is necessary to provide not only accurate but also understandable and actionable forecasts. To provide accurate forecasts Global Forecasting Models (GFM) trained across time series have shown superior results in many demand forecasting competitions and real-world applications recently, compared with univariate forecasting approaches. We aim to fill the gap between the accuracy and the interpretability in global forecastin…
Electrical Load Forecasting over Multihop Smart Metering Networks with Federated Learning
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Alabama in Huntsville（阿拉巴马大学亨茨维尔分校电气与计算机工程系）；Computer Science and Mathematics Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory（橡树岭国家实验室计算机科学与数学 division）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Kansas State University（堪萨斯州立大学电气与计算机工程系）
In this proposal paper we highlight the need for privacy preserving energy demand forecasting to allay a major concern consumers have about smart meter installations. High resolution smart meter data can expose many private aspects of a consumer's household such as occupancy, habits and individual appliance usage. Yet smart metering infrastructure has the potential to vastly reduce carbon emissions from the energy sector through improved operating efficiencies. We propose the application of a distributed machine learning setting known as federated learning for energy demand forecasting at vari…
Smart grids extremely rely on Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and smart meters to control and manage numerous parameters of the network. However, using these infrastructures make smart grids more vulnerable to cyber threats especially electricity theft. Electricity Theft Detection (EDT) algorithms are typically used for such purpose since this Non-Technical Loss (NTL) may lead to significant challenges in the power system. In this paper, an Ensemble Deep Convolutional Neural Network (EDCNN) algorithm for ETD in smart grids has been proposed. As the first layer of the model, a r…
We present a comparative study of different probabilistic forecasting techniques on the task of predicting the electrical load of secondary substations and cabinets located in a low voltage distribution grid, as well as their aggregated power profile. The methods are evaluated using standard KPIs for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. We also compare the ability of different hierarchical techniques in improving the bottom level forecasters' performances. Both the raw and cleaned datasets, including meteorological data, are made publicly available to provide a standard benchmark for eva…
University of Central Florida（中佛罗里达大学）；University of Ottawa（渥太华大学）
Appliance-level load forecasting plays a critical role in residential energy management, besides having significant importance for ancillary services performed by the utilities. In this paper, we propose to use an LSTM-based sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) learning model that can capture the load profiles of appliances. We use a real dataset collected fromfour residential buildings and compare our proposed schemewith three other techniques, namely VARMA, Dilated One Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network, and an LSTM model.The results show that the proposed LSTM-based seq2seq model outperform…
Vellore Institute of Technology（韦洛尔理工学院）；Pusan National University（釜山国立大学）；University of Oulu（奥卢大学）；Indian Institute of Technology Madras（印度理工学院马德拉斯分校）
Electricity is one of the mandatory commodities for mankind today. To address challenges and issues in the transmission of electricity through the traditional grid, the concepts of smart grids and demand response have been developed. In such systems, a large amount of data is generated daily from various sources such as power generation (e.g., wind turbines), transmission and distribution (microgrids and fault detectors), load management (smart meters and smart electric appliances). Thanks to recent advancements in big data and computing technologies, Deep Learning (DL) can be leveraged to lea…
Early detection of cyber-attacks is crucial for a safe and reliable operation of the smart grid. In the literature, outlier detection schemes making sample-by-sample decisions and online detection schemes requiring perfect attack models have been proposed. In this paper, we formulate the online attack/anomaly detection problem as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) problem and propose a universal robust online detection algorithm using the framework of model-free reinforcement learning (RL) for POMDPs. Numerical studies illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed RL-based a…
Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University（西交利物浦大学）；University of Strathclyde（思克莱德大学）；University of New South Wales（新南威尔士大学）
The cybersecurity of smart grids has become one of key problems in developing reliable modern power and energy systems. This paper introduces a non-stationary adversarial cost with a variation constraint for smart grids and enables us to investigate the problem of optimal smart grid protection against cyber attacks in a relatively practical scenario. In particular, a Bayesian multi-node bandit (MNB) model with adversarial costs is constructed and a new regret function is defined for this model. An algorithm called Thompson-Hedge algorithm is presented to solve the problem and the superior perf…
University of York（约克大学）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）
This paper presents new dynamic topology adaptation strategies for distributed estimation in smart grids systems. We propose a dynamic exhaustive search--based topology adaptation algorithm and a dynamic sparsity--inspired topology adaptation algorithm, which can exploit the topology of smart grids with poor--quality links and obtain performance gains. We incorporate an optimized combining rule, named Hastings rule into our proposed dynamic topology adaptation algorithms. Compared with the existing works in the literature on distributed estimation, the proposed algorithms have a better converg…
University of Central Florida（中佛罗里达大学）；University of Ottawa（渥太华大学）
A smart home energy management system (HEMS) can contribute towards reducing the energy costs of customers; however, HEMS suffers from uncertainty in both energy generation and consumption patterns. In this paper, we propose a sequence to sequence (Seq2Seq) learning-based supply and load prediction along with reinforcement learning-based HEMS control. We investigate how the prediction method affects the HEMS operation. First, we use Seq2Seq learning to predict photovoltaic (PV) power and home devices' load. We then apply Q-learning for offline optimization of HEMS based on the prediction resul…
This paper presents a Reinforcement Learning (RL) based energy market for a prosumer dominated microgrid. The proposed market model facilitates a real-time and demanddependent dynamic pricing environment, which reduces grid costs and improves the economic benefits for prosumers. Furthermore, this market model enables the grid operator to leverage prosumers storage capacity as a dispatchable asset for grid support applications. Simulation results based on the Deep QNetwork (DQN) framework demonstrate significant improvements of the 24-hour accumulative profit for both prosumers and the grid ope…
