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arXiv 2011.11085eess.SYcs.SY
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使用一种新的基于Agent的建模框架识别关键车队规模

Identifying Critical Fleet Sizes Using a Novel Agent-Based Modelling Framework for Autonomous Ride-Sourcing

Renos Karamanis, He-in Cheong, Simon Hu, Marc Stettler, Panagiotis Angeloudis

摘要:

乘车外包平台通过解决通常与客户匹配、定价和车辆路线相关的决策问题,实现按需共享运输服务。这些问题经常使用聚合数学模型表示,并通过研究人员设计的算法方法解决。网约车环境的日益复杂影响了聚合方法的准确性。因此,它表明需要替代实践,例如基于代理的模型,这些模型可以捕获乘车外包系统中的复杂动态水平。使用这些基于代理的模型来模拟乘车外包车队一直是许多研究的焦点;然而,这是在缺乏关于如何构建模型以真实地模拟车队运营的规定方法的情况下发生的。为了弥合这一研究差距,我们提供了一个框架,用于构建定制的基于代理的模型,该模型来自基于代理的建模理论的基本原理。我们还介绍了一个模型建设序列的不同模块,必要的结构模拟器的基础上,我们的框架。为了展示我们框架的优势,我们用它来解决高度非线性的问题,即自动驾驶外包车队的最小车队规模估计。我们这样做的基础上排队论的原则,并通过推导和验证一个新的模型皮卡等待时间的系统参数的关系进行调查。通过对曼哈顿、旧金山、巴黎和巴塞罗那城市地区的外包车队功能进行建模,我们发现外包车队在临界车队规模以上的零分配时间内运营队列。我们还表明,皮卡等待时间在估计最小车队规模方面具有关键作用,基于代理的建模是一种更可靠的识别路线,给定系统参数。

英文摘要:

Ride-sourcing platforms enable an on-demand shared transport service by solving decision problems often related to customer matching, pricing and vehicle routing. These problems have been frequently represented using aggregated mathematical models and solved via algorithmic approaches designed by researchers. The increasing complexity of ride-sourcing environments compromises the accuracy of aggregated methods. It, therefore, signals the need for alternative practices such as agent-based models which capture the level of complex dynamics in ride-sourcing systems. The use of these agent-based models to simulate ride-sourcing fleets has been a focal point of many studies; however, this occurred in the absence of a prescribed approach on how to build the models to mimic fleet operations realistically. To bridge this research gap, we provide a framework for building bespoke agent-based models for ride-sourcing fleets, derived from the fundamentals of agent-based modelling theory. We also introduce a model building sequence of the different modules necessary to structure a simulator based on our framework. To showcase the strength of our framework, we use it to tackle the highly non-linear problem of minimum fleet size estimation for autonomous ride-sourcing fleets. We do so by investigating the relationship of system parameters based on queuing theory principles and by deriving and validating a novel model for pickup wait times. By modelling the ride-sourcing fleet function in the urban areas of Manhattan, San Francisco, Paris and Barcelona, we find that ride-sourcing fleets operate queues with zero assignment times above the critical fleet size. We also show that pickup wait times have a pivotal role in the estimation of the minimum fleet size in ride-sourcing operations, with agent-based modelling to be a more reliable route for their identification given the system parameters.

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