Recent work has attempted to directly approximate the `function-space' or predictive posterior distribution of Bayesian models, without approximating the posterior distribution over the parameters. This is appealing in e.g. Bayesian neural networks, where we only need the former, and the latter is hard to represent. In this work, we highlight some advantages and limitations of employing the Kullback-Leibler divergence in this setting. For example, we show that minimizing the KL divergence between a wide class of parametric distributions and the posterior induced by a (non-degenerate) Gaussian process prior leads to an ill-defined objective function. Then, we propose (featurized) Bayesian linear regression as a benchmark for `function-space' inference methods that directly measures approximation quality. We apply this methodology to assess aspects of the objective function and inference scheme considered in Sun, Zhang, Shi, and Grosse (2018), emphasizing the quality of approximation to Bayesian inference as opposed to predictive performance.
Variational inference offers scalable and flexible tools to tackle intractable Bayesian inference of modern statistical models like Bayesian neural networks and Gaussian processes. For largely over-parameterized models, however, the over-regularization property of the variational objective makes the application of variational inference challenging. Inspired by the literature on kernel methods, and in particular on structured approximations of distributions of random matrices, this paper proposes Walsh-Hadamard Variational Inference, which uses Walsh-Hadamard-based factorization strategies to r…
The recognition network in deep latent variable models such as variational autoencoders (VAEs) relies on amortized inference for efficient posterior approximation that can scale up to large datasets. However, this technique has also been demonstrated to select suboptimal variational parameters, often resulting in considerable additional error called the amortization gap. To close the amortization gap and improve the training of the generative model, recent works have introduced an additional refinement step that applies stochastic variational inference (SVI) to improve upon the variational par…
Athens University of Economics and Business(雅典经济与商业大学);University of Cambridge(剑桥大学);Columbia University(哥伦比亚大学)
We develop unbiased implicit variational inference (UIVI), a method that expands the applicability of variational inference by defining an expressive variational family. UIVI considers an implicit variational distribution obtained in a hierarchical manner using a simple reparameterizable distribution whose variational parameters are defined by arbitrarily flexible deep neural networks. Unlike previous works, UIVI directly optimizes the evidence lower bound (ELBO) rather than an approximation to the ELBO. We demonstrate UIVI on several models, including Bayesian multinomial logistic regression …
Samsung AI Center Moscow(三星人工智能中心莫斯科);National Research University Higher School of Economics(国立研究型高等经济大学)
We extend the existing framework of semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) and introduce doubly semi-implicit variational inference (DSIVI), a way to perform variational inference and learning when both the approximate posterior and the prior distribution are semi-implicit. In other words, DSIVI performs inference in models where the prior and the posterior can be expressed as an intractable infinite mixture of some analytic density with a highly flexible implicit mixing distribution. We provide a sandwich bound on the evidence lower bound (ELBO) objective that can be made arbitrarily tigh…
Samsung AI Center Moscow(三星莫斯科人工智能中心);National Research University Higher School of Economics(国立研究型高等经济学院);NRU HSE(国立研究型高等经济学院)
Variational Inference is a powerful tool in the Bayesian modeling toolkit, however, its effectiveness is determined by the expressivity of the utilized variational distributions in terms of their ability to match the true posterior distribution. In turn, the expressivity of the variational family is largely limited by the requirement of having a tractable density function. To overcome this roadblock, we introduce a new family of variational upper bounds on a marginal log density in the case of hierarchical models (also known as latent variable models). We then give an upper bound on the Kullba…
Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto(多伦多大学计算机科学系)
Amortized inference allows latent-variable models trained via variational learning to scale to large datasets. The quality of approximate inference is determined by two factors: a) the capacity of the variational distribution to match the true posterior and b) the ability of the recognition network to produce good variational parameters for each datapoint. We examine approximate inference in variational autoencoders in terms of these factors. We find that divergence from the true posterior is often due to imperfect recognition networks, rather than the limited complexity of the approximating d…
National Research University Higher School of Economics(俄罗斯国家研究型高等经济大学);Yandex
Variational inference is a powerful tool for approximate inference. However, it mainly focuses on the evidence lower bound as variational objective and the development of other measures for variational inference is a promising area of research. This paper proposes a robust modification of evidence and a lower bound for the evidence, which is applicable when the majority of the training set samples are random noise objects. We provide experiments for variational autoencoders to show advantage of the objective over the evidence lower bound on synthetic datasets obtained by adding uninformative n…
University of Southern California(南加州大学);Google Research(谷歌研究院)
Classical approaches for approximate inference depend on cleverly designed variational distributions and bounds. Modern approaches employ amortized variational inference, which uses a neural network to approximate any posterior without leveraging the structures of the generative models. In this paper, we propose Amortized Conjugate Posterior (ACP), a hybrid approach taking advantages of both types of approaches. Specifically, we use the classical methods to derive specific forms of posterior distributions and then learn the variational parameters using amortized inference. We study the effecti…
We reinterpreting the variational inference in a new perspective. Via this way, we can easily prove that EM algorithm, VAE, GAN, AAE, ALI(BiGAN) are all special cases of variational inference. The proof also reveals the loss of standard GAN is incomplete and it explains why we need to train GAN cautiously. From that, we find out a regularization term to improve stability of GAN training.
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have given us a great tool to fit implicit generative models to data. Implicit distributions are ones we can sample from easily, and take derivatives of samples with respect to model parameters. These models are highly expressive and we argue they can prove just as useful for variational inference (VI) as they are for generative modelling. Several papers have proposed GAN-like algorithms for inference, however, connections to the theory of VI are not always well understood. This paper provides a unifying review of existing algorithms establishing connecti…
Variational inference methods often focus on the problem of efficient model optimization, with little emphasis on the choice of the approximating posterior. In this paper, we review and implement the various methods that enable us to develop a rich family of approximating posteriors. We show that one particular method employing transformations on distributions results in developing very rich and complex posterior approximation. We analyze its performance on the MNIST dataset by implementing with a Variational Autoencoder and demonstrate its effectiveness in learning better posterior distributi…
Recent advances in coreset methods have shown that a selection of representative datapoints can replace massive volumes of data for Bayesian inference, preserving the relevant statistical information and significantly accelerating subsequent downstream tasks. Existing variational coreset constructions rely on either selecting subsets of the observed datapoints, or jointly performing approximate inference and optimizing pseudodata in the observed space akin to inducing points methods in Gaussian Processes. So far, both approaches are limited by complexities in evaluating their objectives for ge…
Radboud University(拉德堡德大学);University of Utrecht(乌得勒支大学);University of Amsterdam(阿姆斯特丹大学)
In this paper, we introduce a new form of amortized variational inference by using the forward KL divergence in a joint-contrastive variational loss. The resulting forward amortized variational inference is a likelihood-free method as its gradient can be sampled without bias and without requiring any evaluation of either the model joint distribution or its derivatives. We prove that our new variational loss is optimized by the exact posterior marginals in the fully factorized mean-field approximation, a property that is not shared with the more conventional reverse KL inference. Furthermore, w…
Xylem Inc.(赛莱默公司);The University of Chicago(芝加哥大学)
Variational autoencoder is a powerful deep generative model with variational inference. The practice of modeling latent variables in the VAE's original formulation as normal distributions with a diagonal covariance matrix limits the flexibility to match the true posterior distribution. We propose a new transformation, dyadic transformation (DT), that can model a multivariate normal distribution. DT is a single-stage transformation with low computational requirements. We demonstrate empirically on MNIST dataset that DT enhances the posterior flexibility and attains competitive results compared …
Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit(盖茨比计算神经科学单元);University College London(伦敦大学学院)
Sparse variational approximations allow for principled and scalable inference in Gaussian Process (GP) models. In settings where several GPs are part of the generative model, theses GPs are a posteriori coupled. For many applications such as regression where predictive accuracy is the quantity of interest, this coupling is not crucial. Howewer if one is interested in posterior uncertainty, it cannot be ignored. A key element of variational inference schemes is the choice of the approximate posterior parameterization. When the number of latent variables is large, mean field (MF) methods provide…
We present Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI), an approach to perform Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods. SNVI combines likelihood-estimation (or likelihood-ratio-estimation) with variational inference to achieve a scalable simulation-based inference approach. SNVI maintains the flexibility of likelihood(-ratio) estimation to allow arbitrary proposals for simulations, while simultaneously providing a functional estimate of the posterior distribution without requiring MCMC sampling. We present several variants of SNVI and demonstrate that they are substantiall…
Existing deterministic variational inference approaches for diffusion processes use simple proposals and target the marginal density of the posterior. We construct the variational process as a controlled version of the prior process and approximate the posterior by a set of moment functions. In combination with moment closure, the smoothing problem is reduced to a deterministic optimal control problem. Exploiting the path-wise Fisher information, we propose an optimization procedure that corresponds to a natural gradient descent in the variational parameters. Our approach allows for richer var…
Georgia Institute of Technology(佐治亚理工学院);Institute for Robotics Intelligent Machines(机器人与智能机器研究所)
Large-scale Gaussian process inference has long faced practical challenges due to time and space complexity that is superlinear in dataset size. While sparse variational Gaussian process models are capable of learning from large-scale data, standard strategies for sparsifying the model can prevent the approximation of complex functions. In this work, we propose a novel variational Gaussian process model that decouples the representation of mean and covariance functions in reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We show that this new parametrization generalizes previous models. Furthermore, it yields…
A Variational Approach to Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference
Peking University(北京大学);Howard Hughes Medical Institute(霍华德·休斯医学研究所);Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center(弗雷德·哈钦森癌症研究中心);University of Washington(华盛顿大学)
Columbia University(哥伦比亚大学);New York University(纽约大学)
Variational inference transforms posterior inference into parametric optimization thereby enabling the use of latent variable models where otherwise impractical. However, variational inference can be finicky when different variational parameters control variables that are strongly correlated under the model. Traditional natural gradients based on the variational approximation fail to correct for correlations when the approximation is not the true posterior. To address this, we construct a new natural gradient called the Variational Predictive Natural Gradient (VPNG). Unlike traditional natural…
Samsung AI Center(三星人工智能中心);Rutgers University(罗格斯大学)
Inference networks of traditional Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are typically amortized, resulting in relatively inaccurate posterior approximation compared to instance-wise variational optimization. Recent semi-amortized approaches were proposed to address this drawback; however, their iterative gradient update procedures can be computationally demanding. To address these issues, in this paper we introduce an accurate amortized inference algorithm. We propose a novel recursive mixture estimation algorithm for VAEs that iteratively augments the current mixture with new components so as to ma…
University of British Columbia(不列颠哥伦比亚大学);MIT(麻省理工学院)
We introduce the thermodynamic variational objective (TVO) for learning in both continuous and discrete deep generative models. The TVO arises from a key connection between variational inference and thermodynamic integration that results in a tighter lower bound to the log marginal likelihood than the standard variational variational evidence lower bound (ELBO) while remaining as broadly applicable. We provide a computationally efficient gradient estimator for the TVO that applies to continuous, discrete, and non-reparameterizable distributions and show that the objective functions used in var…
Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) can model complex marginal densities as well as complex mappings. Non-Gaussian marginals are essential for modelling real-world data, and can be generated from the DGP by incorporating uncorrelated variables to the model. Previous work on DGP models has introduced noise additively and used variational inference with a combination of sparse Gaussian processes and mean-field Gaussians for the approximate posterior. Additive noise attenuates the signal, and the Gaussian form of variational distribution may lead to an inaccurate posterior. We instead incorporate nois…
Variational inference is an umbrella term for algorithms which cast Bayesian inference as optimization. Classically, variational inference uses the Kullback-Leibler divergence to define the optimization. Though this divergence has been widely used, the resultant posterior approximation can suffer from undesirable statistical properties. To address this, we reexamine variational inference from its roots as an optimization problem. We use operators, or functions of functions, to design variational objectives. As one example, we design a variational objective with a Langevin-Stein operator. We de…
Harvard University(哈佛大学);Massachusetts Institute of Technology(麻省理工学院)
Amortized variational inference (AVI) replaces instance-specific local inference with a global inference network. While AVI has enabled efficient training of deep generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAE), recent empirical work suggests that inference networks can produce suboptimal variational parameters. We propose a hybrid approach, to use AVI to initialize the variational parameters and run stochastic variational inference (SVI) to refine them. Crucially, the local SVI procedure is itself differentiable, so the inference network and generative model can be trained end-to-end…
Recent efforts on combining deep models with probabilistic graphical models are promising in providing flexible models that are also easy to interpret. We propose a variational message-passing algorithm for variational inference in such models. We make three contributions. First, we propose structured inference networks that incorporate the structure of the graphical model in the inference network of variational auto-encoders (VAE). Second, we establish conditions under which such inference networks enable fast amortized inference similar to VAE. Finally, we derive a variational message passin…
Variational inference is a powerful approach for approximate posterior inference. However, it is sensitive to initialization and can be subject to poor local optima. In this paper, we develop proximity variational inference (PVI). PVI is a new method for optimizing the variational objective that constrains subsequent iterates of the variational parameters to robustify the optimization path. Consequently, PVI is less sensitive to initialization and optimization quirks and finds better local optima. We demonstrate our method on three proximity statistics. We study PVI on a Bernoulli factor model…
Aiming at a comprehensive and concise tutorial survey, recap of variational inference and reinforcement learning with Probabilistic Graphical Models are given with detailed derivations. Reviews and comparisons on recent advances in deep reinforcement learning are made from various aspects. We offer detailed derivations to a taxonomy of Probabilistic Graphical Model and Variational Inference methods in deep reinforcement learning, which serves as a complementary material on top of the original contributions.
University of Edinburgh(爱丁堡大学);The Alan Turing Institute(艾伦·图灵研究所);Google Brain(谷歌大脑)
The Pachinko Allocation Machine (PAM) is a deep topic model that allows representing rich correlation structures among topics by a directed acyclic graph over topics. Because of the flexibility of the model, however, approximate inference is very difficult. Perhaps for this reason, only a small number of potential PAM architectures have been explored in the literature. In this paper we present an efficient and flexible amortized variational inference method for PAM, using a deep inference network to parameterize the approximate posterior distribution in a manner similar to the variational auto…
Inference for GP models with non-Gaussian noises is computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. Many recent inference methods approximate the posterior distribution with a simpler distribution defined on a small number of inducing points. The inference is accurate only when data points have strong correlation with these inducing points. In this paper, we consider the inference problem in a different direction: GP function values in the posterior are mostly correlated in short distance. We construct a variational distribution such that the inference for a data point considers on…
We develop a framework for generalized variational inference in infinite-dimensional function spaces and use it to construct a method termed Gaussian Wasserstein inference (GWI). GWI leverages the Wasserstein distance between Gaussian measures on the Hilbert space of square-integrable functions in order to determine a variational posterior using a tractable optimisation criterion and avoids pathologies arising in standard variational function space inference. An exciting application of GWI is the ability to use deep neural networks in the variational parametrisation of GWI, combining their sup…
We empirically evaluate a stochastic annealing strategy for Bayesian posterior optimization with variational inference. Variational inference is a deterministic approach to approximate posterior inference in Bayesian models in which a typically non-convex objective function is locally optimized over the parameters of the approximating distribution. We investigate an annealing method for optimizing this objective with the aim of finding a better local optimal solution and compare with deterministic annealing methods and no annealing. We show that stochastic annealing can provide clear improveme…
We develop an optimization algorithm suitable for Bayesian learning in complex models. Our approach relies on natural gradient updates within a general black-box framework for efficient training with limited model-specific derivations. It applies within the class of exponential-family variational posterior distributions, for which we extensively discuss the Gaussian case for which the updates have a rather simple form. Our Quasi Black-box Variational Inference (QBVI) framework is readily applicable to a wide class of Bayesian inference problems and is of simple implementation as the updates of…
We utilize copulas to constitute a unified framework for constructing and optimizing variational proposals in hierarchical Bayesian models. For models with continuous and non-Gaussian hidden variables, we propose a semiparametric and automated variational Gaussian copula approach, in which the parametric Gaussian copula family is able to preserve multivariate posterior dependence, and the nonparametric transformations based on Bernstein polynomials provide ample flexibility in characterizing the univariate marginal posteriors.
BayesPy is an open-source Python software package for performing variational Bayesian inference. It is based on the variational message passing framework and supports conjugate exponential family models. By removing the tedious task of implementing the variational Bayesian update equations, the user can construct models faster and in a less error-prone way. Simple syntax, flexible model construction and efficient inference make BayesPy suitable for both average and expert Bayesian users. It also supports some advanced methods such as stochastic and collapsed variational inference.
TU Kaiserslautern(凯泽斯劳滕工业大学);MindGarage;Imperial College London(帝国理工学院);NeuralSpace;Luleå University of Technology(吕勒奥理工大学)
We introduce a novel uncertainty estimation for classification tasks for Bayesian convolutional neural networks with variational inference. By normalizing the output of a Softplus function in the final layer, we estimate aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in a coherent manner. The intractable posterior probability distributions over weights are inferred by Bayes by Backprop. Firstly, we demonstrate how this reliable variational inference method can serve as a fundamental construct for various network architectures. On multiple datasets in supervised learning settings (MNIST, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-1…
The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizi…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs, but inference in these models has proved challenging. Existing approaches to inference in DGP models assume approximate posteriors that force independence between the layers, and do not work well in practice. We present a doubly stochastic variational inference algorithm, which does not force independence between layers. With our method of inference we demons…
In this paper, a scale mixture of Normal distributions model is developed for classification and clustering of data having outliers and missing values. The classification method, based on a mixture model, focuses on the introduction of latent variables that gives us the possibility to handle sensitivity of model to outliers and to allow a less restrictive modelling of missing data. Inference is processed through a Variational Bayesian Approximation and a Bayesian treatment is adopted for model learning, supervised classification and clustering.
We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time points and only the numbers of occurrences of the events between subsequent observation times are available. The exact occurrence timestamps of the events are unknown. The method of conducting the efficient variational inference is presented, based on the assumption of a Gaussian-process-modulated intensity function. We derive a tractable lower bound to alleviate…
University of Amsterdam(阿姆斯特丹大学);University of Oxford(牛津大学)
Variational inference relies on flexible approximate posterior distributions. Normalizing flows provide a general recipe to construct flexible variational posteriors. We introduce Sylvester normalizing flows, which can be seen as a generalization of planar flows. Sylvester normalizing flows remove the well-known single-unit bottleneck from planar flows, making a single transformation much more flexible. We compare the performance of Sylvester normalizing flows against planar flows and inverse autoregressive flows and demonstrate that they compare favorably on several datasets.
We present the first fully variational Bayesian inference scheme for continuous Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes. Such point processes are used in a variety of domains, including neuroscience, geo-statistics and astronomy, but their use is hindered by the computational cost of existing inference schemes. Our scheme: requires no discretisation of the domain; scales linearly in the number of observed events; and is many orders of magnitude faster than previous sampling based approaches. The resulting algorithm is shown to outperform standard methods on synthetic examples, coal mining…
University of Edinburgh(爱丁堡大学);MIT–IBM Watson AI Lab(麻省理工-IBM沃森人工智能实验室);University of Oslo(奥斯陆大学)
Determining the positions of neurons in an extracellular recording is useful for investigating functional properties of the underlying neural circuitry. In this work, we present a Bayesian modelling approach for localizing the source of individual spikes on high-density, microelectrode arrays. To allow for scalable inference, we implement our model as a variational autoencoder and perform amortized variational inference. We evaluate our method on both biophysically realistic simulated and real extracellular datasets, demonstrating that it is more accurate than and can improve spike sorting per…
Variational approaches to approximate Bayesian inference provide very efficient means of performing parameter estimation and model selection. Among these, so-called variational-Laplace or VL schemes rely on Gaussian approximations to posterior densities on model parameters. In this note, we review the main variants of VL approaches, that follow from considering nonlinear models of continuous and/or categorical data. En passant, we also derive a few novel theoretical results that complete the portfolio of existing analyses of variational Bayesian approaches, including investigations of their as…
Variational inference is a popular method for estimating model parameters and conditional distributions in hierarchical and mixed models, which arise frequently in many settings in the health, social, and biological sciences. Variational inference in a frequentist context works by approximating intractable conditional distributions with a tractable family and optimizing the resulting lower bound on the log-likelihood. The variational objective function is typically less computationally intensive to optimize than the true likelihood, enabling scientists to fit rich models even with extremely la…
In this work, we focus on variational Bayesian inference on the sparse Deep Neural Network (DNN) modeled under a class of spike-and-slab priors. Given a pre-specified sparse DNN structure, the corresponding variational posterior contraction rate is characterized that reveals a trade-off between the variational error and the approximation error, which are both determined by the network structural complexity (i.e., depth, width and sparsity). However, the optimal network structure, which strikes the balance of the aforementioned trade-off and yields the best rate, is generally unknown in reality…
College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst(马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校信息与计算机科学学院);Department of Computer Science, Mount Holyoke College(曼荷莲学院计算机科学系)
Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI) technique is an instance of augmented variational inference, thus identifying the looseness in previous work. Experiments confirm IWVI's practicality for probabilistic inference. As a second contribution, we investigate inference with elliptical distributions, which improves accuracy in low dimensions, and convergence in high dimensions.
Radboud University(拉德堡德大学);University of Amsterdam(阿姆斯特丹大学)
This paper introduces Wasserstein variational inference, a new form of approximate Bayesian inference based on optimal transport theory. Wasserstein variational inference uses a new family of divergences that includes both f-divergences and the Wasserstein distance as special cases. The gradients of the Wasserstein variational loss are obtained by backpropagating through the Sinkhorn iterations. This technique results in a very stable likelihood-free training method that can be used with implicit distributions and probabilistic programs. Using the Wasserstein variational inference framework, w…
Particle-based variational inference offers a flexible way of approximating complex posterior distributions with a set of particles. In this paper we introduce a new particle-based variational inference method based on the theory of semi-discrete optimal transport. Instead of minimizing the KL divergence between the posterior and the variational approximation, we minimize a semi-discrete optimal transport divergence. The solution of the resulting optimal transport problem provides both a particle approximation and a set of optimal transportation densities that map each particle to a segment of…
Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations at shorter time horizons. However, the amount of time needed for MCMC to exceed the performance of variational methods can be quite high, motivating more fine-grained tradeoffs. This paper derives a distribution over variational parameters, designed to minimize a bound on the divergence between the resulting marginal distribution and the target, and gives a…
This paper presents studies on a deterministic annealing algorithm based on quantum annealing for variational Bayes (QAVB) inference, which can be seen as an extension of the simulated annealing for variational Bayes (SAVB) inference. QAVB is as easy as SAVB to implement. Experiments revealed QAVB finds a better local optimum than SAVB in terms of the variational free energy in latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA).
Variational Inference makes a trade-off between the capacity of the variational family and the tractability of finding an approximate posterior distribution. Instead, Boosting Variational Inference allows practitioners to obtain increasingly good posterior approximations by spending more compute. The main obstacle to widespread adoption of Boosting Variational Inference is the amount of resources necessary to improve over a strong Variational Inference baseline. In our work, we trace this limitation back to the global curvature of the KL-divergence. We characterize how the global curvature imp…
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign(伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校)
Hybrid continuous-discrete models naturally represent many real-world applications in robotics, finance, and environmental engineering. Inference with large-scale models is challenging because relational structures deteriorate rapidly during inference with observations. The main contribution of this paper is an efficient relational variational inference algorithm that factors largescale probability models into simpler variational models, composed of mixtures of iid (Bernoulli) random variables. The algorithm takes probability relational models of largescale hybrid systems and converts them to …