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arXiv 2011.08671cs.LGcs.AI
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基于非参数生存分析的管道长期失效预测

Long-Term Pipeline Failure Prediction Using Nonparametric Survival Analysis

Data61-The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)(联邦科学与工业研究组织(CSIRO)Data61);Monash University(莫纳什大学);University of Technology Sydney(悉尼科技大学)

Dilusha Weeraddana, Sudaraka MallawaArachchi, Tharindu Warnakula, Zhidong Li, Yang Wang

摘要:

澳大利亚的水利基础设施已有一百多年的历史,因此已经开始通过水管故障显示其年龄。我们的工作涉及澳大利亚主要城市的大约50万条管道,这些管道为家庭和企业供水,为500多万客户提供服务。这些被埋资产的故障会造成财产损失和供水中断。我们应用了机器学习技术,为这些澳大利亚城市的管道故障问题找到了一个具有成本效益的解决方案,这些城市平均每年发生1500起水管故障。为了实现这一目标,我们通过开发一个机器学习模型,利用历史故障记录、管道描述符和其他环境因素来评估和预测水管破裂的故障可能性,从而构建了对水管网络行为的详细描述和理解。我们的研究结果表明,我们的系统结合了非参数生存分析技术,称为“随机生存森林”优于几个流行的算法和专家预测的长期预测。此外,我们构建了一个统计推断技术来量化与长期预测相关的不确定性。

英文摘要:

Australian water infrastructure is more than a hundred years old, thus has begun to show its age through water main failures. Our work concerns approximately half a million pipelines across major Australian cities that deliver water to houses and businesses, serving over five million customers. Failures on these buried assets cause damage to properties and water supply disruptions. We applied Machine Learning techniques to find a cost-effective solution to the pipe failure problem in these Australian cities, where on average 1500 of water main failures occur each year. To achieve this objective, we construct a detailed picture and understanding of the behaviour of the water pipe network by developing a Machine Learning model to assess and predict the failure likelihood of water main breaking using historical failure records, descriptors of pipes and other environmental factors. Our results indicate that our system incorporating a nonparametric survival analysis technique called "Random Survival Forest" outperforms several popular algorithms and expert heuristics in long-term prediction. In addition, we construct a statistical inference technique to quantify the uncertainty associated with the long-term predictions.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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