Measuring risk is at the center of modern financial risk management. As the world economy is becoming more complex and standard modeling assumptions are violated, the advanced artificial intelligence solutions may provide the right tools to analyze the global market. In this paper, we provide a novel approach for measuring market risk called Encoded Value-at-Risk (Encoded VaR), which is based on a type of artificial neural network, called Variational Auto-encoders (VAEs). Encoded VaR is a generative model which can be used to reproduce market scenarios from a range of historical cross-sectional stock returns, while increasing the signal-to-noise ratio present in the financial data, and learning the dependency structure of the market without any assumptions about the joint distribution of stock returns. We compare Encoded VaR out-of-sample results with eleven other methods and show that it is competitive to many other well-known VaR algorithms presented in the literature.
Financial Management System for SMEs: Real-World Deployment of Accounts Receivable and Cash Flow Prediction
Doctoral School of Exact and Natural Sciences Jagiellonian University（杰洛尼沃大学精确与自然科学博士学校）；Faculty of Physics, Astronomy and Applied Computer Science, Institute of Applied Computer Science, and Jagiellonian Human-Centered AI Lab Jagiellonian University（杰洛尼沃大学物理、天文学和应用计算机科学学院，应用计算机科学研究所，杰洛尼沃人类中心人工智能实验室）
Portfolio management is the decision-making process of allocating an amount of fund into different financial investment products. Cryptocurrencies are electronic and decentralized alternatives to government-issued money, with Bitcoin as the best-known example of a cryptocurrency. This paper presents a model-less convolutional neural network with historic prices of a set of financial assets as its input, outputting portfolio weights of the set. The network is trained with 0.7 years' price data from a cryptocurrency exchange. The training is done in a reinforcement manner, maximizing the accumul…
In the practical business of asset management by investment trusts and the like, the general practice is to manage over the medium to long term owing to the burden of operations and increase in transaction costs with the increase in turnover ratio. However, when machine learning is used to construct a management model, the number of learning data decreases with the increase in the long-term time scale; this causes a decline in the learning precision. Accordingly, in this study, data augmentation was applied by the combined use of not only the time scales of the target tasks but also the learni…
Portfolio management aims at maximizing the return on investment while minimizing risk by continuously reallocating the assets forming the portfolio. These assets are not independent but correlated during a short time period. A graph convolutional reinforcement learning framework called DeepPocket is proposed whose objective is to exploit the time-varying interrelations between financial instruments. These interrelations are represented by a graph whose nodes correspond to the financial instruments while the edges correspond to a pair-wise correlation function in between assets. DeepPocket con…
New York University（纽约大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
The most recent financial upheavals have cast doubt on the adequacy of some of the conventional quantitative risk management strategies, such as VaR (Value at Risk), in many common situations. Consequently, there has been an increasing need for verisimilar financial stress testings, namely simulating and analyzing financial portfolios in extreme, albeit rare scenarios. Unlike conventional risk management which exploits statistical correlations among financial instruments, here we focus our analysis on the notion of probabilistic causation, which is embodied by Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks (SBC…
Bayesian Modeling for Uncertainty Management in Financial Risk Forecasting and Compliance
iLynx Inc.（iLynx公司）；Cognitive Links；United International University（联合国际大学）；University of Maryland, Baltimore County（马里兰大学巴尔的摩分校）；Washington University of Science and Technology（科学与技术华盛顿大学）
The process of continuously reallocating funds into financial assets, aiming to increase the expected return of investment and minimizing the risk, is known as portfolio management. Processing speed and energy consumption of portfolio management have become crucial as the complexity of their real-world applications increasingly involves high-dimensional observation and action spaces and environment uncertainty, which their limited onboard resources cannot offset. Emerging neuromorphic chips inspired by the human brain increase processing speed by up to 1000 times and reduce power consumption b…
Zhejiang University（浙江大学）；Fudan University（复旦大学）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；IBM Research（IBM研究院）
Portfolio management (PM) is a fundamental financial planning task that aims to achieve investment goals such as maximal profits or minimal risks. Its decision process involves continuous derivation of valuable information from various data sources and sequential decision optimization, which is a prospective research direction for reinforcement learning (RL). In this paper, we propose SARL, a novel State-Augmented RL framework for PM. Our framework aims to address two unique challenges in financial PM: (1) data heterogeneity -- the collected information for each asset is usually diverse, noisy…
University of Luxembourg（卢森堡大学）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；BCEE
Reinforcement learning has become one of the best approach to train a computer game emulator capable of human level performance. In a reinforcement learning approach, an optimal value function is learned across a set of actions, or decisions, that leads to a set of states giving different rewards, with the objective to maximize the overall reward. A policy assigns to each state-action pairs an expected return. We call an optimal policy a policy for which the value function is optimal. QLBS, Q-Learner in the Black-Scholes(-Merton) Worlds, applies the reinforcement learning concepts, and noticea…
Financial portfolio management (PM) is one of the most applicable problems in reinforcement learning (RL) owing to its sequential decision-making nature. However, existing RL-based approaches rarely focus on scalability or reusability to adapt to the ever-changing markets. These approaches are rigid and unscalable to accommodate the varying number of assets of portfolios and increasing need for heterogeneous data. Also, RL agents in the existing systems are ad-hoc trained and hardly reusable for different portfolios. To confront the above problems, a modular design is desired for the systems t…
A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis from Big Data and LLMs Perspective
Southwestern University of Finance and Economics（西南财经大学）；Chengdu University（成都大学）；Universität Hamburg（汉堡大学）；The University of Hong Kong（香港大学）；Hunan University of Technology and Business（湖南工业大学）；Xiangjiang Laboratory（湘江实验室）；Emory University（埃默里大学）
Analysis of Financial Risk Behavior Prediction Using Deep Learning and Big Data Algorithms
University of Houston（休斯顿大学）；University of California, Irvine（加州大学欧文分校）；University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；Southwest Jiaotong University（西南交通大学）；University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）；Northern Arizona University（北亚利桑那大学）
