More than ever COVID-19 is putting pressure on health systems all around the world, especially in Brazil. In this study we propose an analytical approach based on statistics and machine learning that uses lab exam data coming from patients to predict whether patients are going to require special care (hospitalisation in regular or special-care units). We also predict the number of days the patients will stay under such care. The two-step procedure developed uses Bayesian Optimisation to select the best model among several candidates leads us to final models that achieve 0.94 area under ROC curve performance for the first target and 1.87 root mean squared error for the second target (which is a 77% improvement over the mean baseline), making our model ready to be deployed as a decision system that could be available for everyone interested. The analytical approach can be used in other diseases and can help the planning hospital capacity.
The ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic is affecting every facet of human lives (e.g., public health, education, economy, transportation, and the environment). This novel pandemic and citywide implemented lockdown measures are affecting virus transmission, people's travel patterns, and air quality. Many studies have been conducted to predict the COVID-19 diffusion, assess the impacts of the pandemic on human mobility and air quality, and assess the impacts of lockdown measures on viral spread with a range of Machine Learning (ML) techniques. This review study aims to analyze results from past res…
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant social and economic impacts throughout the world. In addition to the health consequences, the impacts on traffic behaviors have also been sudden and dramatic. We have analyzed how the road traffic safety of New York City, Los Angeles, and Boston in the U.S. have been impacted by the pandemic and corresponding local government orders and restrictions. To be specific, we have studied the accident hotspots' distributions before and after the outbreak of the pandemic and found that traffic accidents have shifted in both location and time compared t…
Justifying draconian measures during the Covid-19 pandemic was difficult not only because of the restriction of individual rights, but also because of its economic impact. The objective of this work is to present a machine learning approach to identify regions that should implement similar health policies. For that end, we successfully developed a system that gives a notion of economic impact given the prediction of new incidental cases through unsupervised learning and time series forecasting. This system was built taking into account computational restrictions and low maintenance requirement…
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院）；IBM（国际商业机器公司）
As a reaction to the high infectiousness and lethality of the COVID-19 virus, countries around the world have adopted drastic policy measures to contain the pandemic. However, it remains unclear which effect these measures, so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), have on the spread of the virus. In this article, we use machine learning and apply drift detection methods in a novel way to predict the time lag of policy interventions with respect to the development of daily case numbers of COVID-19 across 9 European countries and 28 US states. Our analysis shows that there are, on aver…
Since the World Health Organization (WHO) characterized COVID-19 as a pandemic in March 2020, there have been over 600 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than six million deaths as of October 2022. The relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and human behavior is complicated. On one hand, human behavior is found to shape the spread of the disease. On the other hand, the pandemic has impacted and even changed human behavior in almost every aspect. To provide a holistic understanding of the complex interplay between human behavior and the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers have been emp…
University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；University of Maryland（马里兰大学）
While many organizations have shifted to working remotely during the COVID-19 pandemic, how the remote workforce and the remote teams are influenced by and would respond to this and future shocks remain largely unknown. Software developers have relied on remote collaborations long before the pandemic, working in virtual teams (GitHub repositories). The dynamics of these repositories through the pandemic provide a unique opportunity to understand how remote teams react under shock. This work presents a systematic analysis. We measure the overall effect of the early pandemic on public GitHub rep…
The spread of misinformation, conspiracy, and questionable content and information manipulation by foreign adversaries on social media has surged along with the COVID-19 pandemic. Such malicious cyber-enabled actions may cause increasing social polarization, health crises, and property loss. In this paper, using fine-tuned contextualized embedding trained on Reddit, we tackle the detection of the propaganda of such user accounts and their targeted issues on Twitter during March 2020 when the COVID-19 epidemic became recognized as a pandemic. Our result shows that the pro-China group appeared t…
In this paper, we discuss the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on alcohol consumption habit changes among healthcare workers in the United States. We utilize multiple supervised and unsupervised machine learning methods and models such as Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes classifier, k-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machines, Multilayer perceptron, XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM, Chi-Squared Test and mutual information method on a mental health survey data obtained from the University of Michigan Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research to find out relationsh…
European University Institute（欧洲大学学院）；University of Padova（帕多瓦大学）
The COVID-19 pandemic considerably affects public health systems around the world. The lack of knowledge about the virus, the extension of this phenomenon, and the speed of the evolution of the infection are all factors that highlight the necessity of employing new approaches to study these events. Artificial intelligence techniques may be useful in analyzing data related to areas affected by the virus. The aim of this work is to investigate any possible relationships between air quality and confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Italian districts. Specifically, we report an analysis of the correlatio…
Disadvantaged groups around the world have suffered and endured higher mortality during the current COVID-19 pandemic. This contrast disparity suggests that socioeconomic and health-related factors may drive inequality in disease outcome. To identify these factors correlated with COVID-19 outcome, country aggregate data provided by the Lancet COVID-19 Commission subjected to correlation analysis. Socioeconomic and health-related variables were used to predict mortality in the top 5 most affected countries using ridge regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models. Our data reveal th…
Canadian VIGOUR Centre, University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学加拿大VIGOUR中心）；University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学）；Alberta Health Services（阿尔伯塔卫生服务局）；Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute（阿尔伯塔机器智能研究所）
Pandemic outbreaks such as COVID-19 occur unexpectedly, and need immediate action due to their potential devastating consequences on global health. Point-of-care routine assessments such as electrocardiogram (ECG), can be used to develop prediction models for identifying individuals at risk. However, there is often too little clinically-annotated medical data, especially in early phases of a pandemic, to develop accurate prediction models. In such situations, historical pre-pandemic health records can be utilized to estimate a preliminary model, which can then be fine-tuned based on limited av…
Bloodstock shortages and its uncertain demand has become a major problem for all countries worldwide. Therefore, this study aims to provide solution to the issues of blood distribution during the Covid-19 Pandemic at Bengkulu, Indonesia. The Backpropagation algorithm was used to improve the possibility of discovering available and potential donors. Furthermore, the distances, age, and length of donation were measured to obtain the right person to donate blood when it needed. The Backpropagation uses three input layers to classify eligible donors, namely age, body, weight, and bias. In addition…
Population-wide vaccination is critical for containing the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic when combined with restrictive and prevention measures. In this study, we introduce SAIVR, a mathematical model able to forecast the Covid-19 epidemic evolution during the vaccination campaign. SAIVR extends the widely used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model by considering the Asymptomatic (A) and Vaccinated (V) compartments. The model contains several parameters and initial conditions that are estimated by employing a semi-supervised machine learning procedure. After training an unsupervised neur…
National Center for Biotechnology Information（国家生物技术信息中心）；National Library of Medicine（国家医学图书馆）；National Institutes of Health（国立卫生研究院）
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on society, both because of the serious health effects of COVID-19 and because of public health measures implemented to slow its spread. Many of these difficulties are fundamentally information needs; attempts to address these needs have caused an information overload for both researchers and the public. Natural language processing (NLP), the branch of artificial intelligence that interprets human language, can be applied to address many of the information needs made urgent by the COVID-19 pandemic. This review surveys approximately 150 NLP st…
College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院计算学院）；Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech（弗吉尼亚理工大学计算机系）；Department of Computer Science, University of Iowa（爱荷华大学计算机系）
Forecasting influenza in a timely manner aids health organizations and policymakers in adequate preparation and decision making. However, effective influenza forecasting still remains a challenge despite increasing research interest. It is even more challenging amidst the COVID pandemic, when the influenza-like illness (ILI) counts are affected by various factors such as symptomatic similarities with COVID-19 and shift in healthcare seeking patterns of the general population. Under the current pandemic, historical influenza models carry valuable expertise about the disease dynamics but face di…
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, an astronomical number of publications on the pandemic dynamics appeared in the literature, of which many use the susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) models, or their variants, to simulate and study the spread of the coronavirus. SIR and SEIR are continuous-time models which are a class of initial value problems (IVPs) of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Discrete-time models such as regression and machine learning have also been applied to analyze COVID-19 pandemic data (e.g. predicting infection cases), but …
This paper presents TrollHunter, an automated reasoning mechanism we used to hunt for trolls on Twitter during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Trolls, poised to disrupt the online discourse and spread disinformation, quickly seized the absence of a credible response to COVID-19 and created a COVID-19 infodemic by promulgating dubious content on Twitter. To counter the COVID-19 infodemic, the TrollHunter leverages a unique linguistic analysis of a multi-dimensional set of Twitter content features to detect whether or not a tweet was meant to troll. TrollHunter achieved 98.5% accuracy, 75.4% prec…
The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced new opportunities for health communication, including an increase in the public use of online outlets for health-related emotions. People have turned to social media networks to share sentiments related to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper we examine the role of social messaging shared by Persons in the Public Eye (i.e. athletes, politicians, news personnel) in determining overall public discourse direction. We harvested approximately 13 million tweets ranging from 1 January 2020 to 1 March 2022. The sentiment was calculated for each tweet…
