比特币未来的碳足迹
Bitcoin's future carbon footprint
摘要：
比特币的碳足迹引起了广泛关注，但比特币对气候的长期影响仍不确定。在这里，我们提出了一个框架，以克服先前估计的不确定性，并预测比特币的长期电力消耗和碳足迹。如果我们假设比特币的市价总值与黄金的市值增长一致，我们发现比特币的年耗电量可能会在2020年至2100年期间从60 TWh增加到400 TWh。比特币未来的碳足迹在很大程度上取决于电力部门的脱碳途径。如果电力部门到2050年实现碳中和，比特币的碳足迹已经达到顶峰。然而，在一切照旧的情况下，到2100年，排放总量将达到20亿吨，相当于2019年全球排放量的7%。然而，2020年底比特币价格飙升表明，市价总值的逐步发展可能会在2021年产生超过100太瓦时的电力消耗，并导致到2100年累计排放量超过50亿吨。因此，我们还讨论了减少比特币未来碳足迹的政策工具。
英文摘要：
The carbon footprint of Bitcoin has drawn wide attention, but Bitcoin's long-term impact on the climate remains uncertain. Here we present a framework to overcome uncertainties in previous estimates and project Bitcoin's electricity consumption and carbon footprint in the long term. If we assume Bitcoin's market capitalization grows in line with the one of gold, we find that the annual electricity consumption of Bitcoin may increase from 60 to 400 TWh between 2020 and 2100. The future carbon footprint of Bitcoin strongly depends on the decarbonization pathway of the electricity sector. If the electricity sector achieves carbon neutrality by 2050, Bitcoin's carbon footprint has peaked already. However, in the business-as-usual scenario, emissions sum up to 2 gigatons until 2100, an amount comparable to 7% of global emissions in 2019. The Bitcoin price spike at the end of 2020 shows, however, that progressive development of market capitalization could yield an electricity consumption of more than 100 TWh already in 2021, and lead to cumulative emissions of over 5 gigatons by 2100. Therefore, we also discuss policy instruments to reduce Bitcoin's future carbon footprint.
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