全球碳排放和碳足迹不平等的历史演变与再分配情景
Historical Evolution of Global Inequality in Carbon Emissions and Footprints versus Redistributive Scenarios
摘要：
最近，为缓解气候变化，实现消除贫困的可持续发展目标，人们提出了雄心勃勃的碳排放再分配方案。这意味着到2030年，碳足迹不平等将大幅减少，从而有效地将基尼系数减半至0.25左右。本文探讨了这些方案的可行性，通过分析的历史演变的加权国际不平等的二氧化碳排放归因于领土和全球不平等的碳足迹归因于最终消费者。对于后者，构建了一个比现有数据集更全面的新数据集。在这两种情况下，我们都发现全球不平等的趋势有所下降，部分原因是中国从分布的较低部分向中间部分移动，足迹比领土排放更不平等。这些结果表明，要实现再分配设想，就需要将全球不平等程度前所未有地降低到远低于历史水平的水平。此外，最近几年到2017年的领土排放数据显示，基尼系数下降的饱和度为0.5。这一观察结果证实了基于最大熵推理的早期预测，即洛伦兹曲线收敛于指数分布。这种饱和进一步破坏了再分配方案的可行性，而再分配方案也受到全球资本主义下加剧碳足迹不平等的结构性趋势的阻碍。解决这一难题的一个办法是全球能源供应的快速脱碳，以减少全球碳排放，而不依赖于减少碳不平等。
英文摘要：
Ambitious scenarios of carbon emission redistribution for mitigating climate change in line with the Paris Agreement and reaching the sustainable development goal of eradicating poverty have been proposed recently. They imply a strong reduction in carbon footprint inequality by 2030 that effectively halves the Gini coefficient to about 0.25. This paper examines feasibility of these scenarios by analyzing the historical evolution of both weighted international inequality in CO2 emissions attributed territorially and global inequality in carbon footprints attributed to end consumers. For the latter, a new dataset is constructed that is more comprehensive than existing ones. In both cases, we find a decreasing trend in global inequality, partially attributed to the move of China from the lower to the middle part of the distribution, with footprints more unequal than territorial emissions. These results show that realization of the redistributive scenarios would require an unprecedented reduction in global inequality far below historical levels. Moreover, the territorial emissions data, available for more recent years up to 2017, show a saturation of the decreasing Gini coefficient at a level of 0.5. This observation confirms an earlier prediction based on maximal entropy reasoning that the Lorenz curve converges to the exponential distribution. This saturation further undermines feasibility of the redistributive scenarios, which are also hindered by structural tendencies that reinforce carbon footprint inequality under global capitalism. One way out of this conundrum is a fast decarbonization of the global energy supply in order to decrease global carbon emissions without relying crucially on carbon inequality reduction.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
