北极原油进口量结构性预测的新成分数据灰色模型
Novel Compositional Data's Grey Model for Structurally Forecasting Arctic Crude Oil Import
摘要：
北极地区原油储量丰富。冰的融化使人们有可能获得北极原油及其运输的中间通道。本文提出了一种新的北极原油成分数据灰色预测模型，对北极原油进口量进行结构性预测。首先根据Aitchison几何定义了多元组成数据的一般累加运算序列，然后以组成数据向量的形式得到新的模型。其次，本文研究了模型的最小二乘参数估计。新的模型推导和选择的时间响应表达式的解决方案。第三，将传统的灰色模型与新模型相结合，提高了模型的鲁棒性。引入差分进化算法来确定广义矩阵的最优值。最后，通过两个算例验证了该模型的有效性，并将其应用于中国原油进口结构的预测。结果表明，新模型在所有原油情况下都能提供更好的短期预测性能。因此，利用新模型计算出中国的发展参数为0.5214，新模型的决定因子为0.5999，这意味着中国的原油进口结构正在发生变化。具体来看，未来6年从北极地区进口的原油量明显增加，充分证明了北极地区拥有的优势：原油储量丰富，运输距离缩短。
英文摘要：
The reserve of crude oil in the Arctic area is abundant. Ice melting is making it possible to have intermediate access to the Arctic crude oil and its transportation. A novel compositional data's grey model is proposed in this paper to structurally forecast Arctic crude oil import. Firstly, the general accumulative operation sequence of multivariate compositional data is defined according to Aitchison geometry, then obtaining the novel model with the form of the compositional data vectors. Secondly, this paper studies the least square parameter estimation of the model. The novel model is deduced and selected as the time-response expression of the solution. Thirdly, this paper infuses the novel model with traditional grey model to improve its robustness. Differential Evolution algorithm is introduced to determine the optimal value of the general matrix. Lastly, two validation examples are provided for confirming the effectiveness of the novel model by comparing it with other existing models, before being employed to forecast the crude oil import structure in China. The results show that the novel model provides better performance in all crude oil cases in short-term forecasting. Therefore, by using the new model, China's development parameter is 0.5214 and Determination Factor of the novel model is 0.5999, which means that the crude oil import structure of China is being changed. Specifically, the amount of crude oil imported from the Arctic area is obviously increasing in the next 6 years, showing sufficient proof of the edge owned by the Arctic area: abundant crude oil reserves and shortening transportation distance.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
