北极海冰何时消失？面积、范围、厚度和体积的预测
When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume
AI总结：
该研究为北极海冰的面积、范围、厚度和体积提供联合预测，施加同时达到无冰状态的约束，预测到2030年代中期夏季北极几乎无冰的概率为80%，并指出全球降低碳排放仅能推迟这一进程几年。
摘要：
北极夏季海冰的迅速减少是全球气候变化速度的有力信号。我们为北极海冰的四个指标：面积、范围、厚度和体积，提供了点预测、区间预测和密度预测。重要的是，我们施加了联合约束，要求这些指标必须同时达到无冰北极的状态。我们将这种受约束的联合预测程序应用于将海冰与大气二氧化碳浓度相关联的模型，以及将海冰直接与时间相关联的模型。由此产生的“碳趋势”和“时间趋势”预测相互一致，并预测到2030年代中期，夏季北极海洋几乎无冰的概率为80%。此外，碳趋势预测表明，全球采用较低的碳路径可能只会将季节性无冰北极的到来推迟几年。
英文摘要：
Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and models relating sea ice directly to time. The resulting "carbon-trend" and "time-trend" projections are mutually consistent and predict a nearly ice-free summer Arctic Ocean by the mid-2030s with an 80% probability. Moreover, the carbon-trend projections show that global adoption of a lower carbon path would likely delay the arrival of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by only a few years.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
