人口和气象参数对COVID-19基本繁殖数的影响
Effects of demographic and weather parameters on COVID-19 basic reproduction number
摘要：
在没有全面了解可能影响感染传播性的环境因素的情况下，不可能及时预测COVID-19的进展。针对可能影响COVID-19进展的参数的研究依赖于检测到的病例总数和类似代理和/或少量分析因素，包括对显示这些参数范围狭窄的地区的分析。我们在这里应用了一种新的方法，利用COVID-19检测病例数的广泛增长机制。通过将非线性动力学方法应用于指数区域，我们提取基本再生数R 0（即，COVID-19固有生物传播性的衡量标准），适用于118个不同国家在没有社交距离的情况下完全天真的人群。然后，我们使用生物信息学方法系统地收集这些国家的大量人口统计和天气参数数据，并寻求它们与COVID-19传播速度的相关性。除了一些已经报道的趋势之外，我们还展示了一些新颖的结果和那些有助于解决现有争议的结果：不依赖于风速和气压，与降水量呈负相关;与社会发展水平显著正相关（人类发展指数），不论测试政策，和城市人口的百分比，但与人口密度本身无关。我们发现一个强有力的正相关性，酒精消费的可传播性，并没有相关性的难民人数，相反，一些普遍的信念。报告了与健康相关因素的显著趋势，包括对血型〈动〉<动>组的详细分析，显示Rh因子的一致趋势，以及遗传性与胆固醇水平的强正相关性。
英文摘要：
Timely prediction of the COVID-19 progression is not possible without a comprehensive understanding of environmental factors that may affect the infection transmissibility. Studies addressing parameters that may influence COVID-19 progression relied on either the total numbers of detected cases and similar proxies and/or a small number of analyzed factors, including analysis of regions that display a narrow range of these parameters. We here apply a novel approach, exploiting widespread growth regimes in COVID-19 detected case counts. By applying nonlinear dynamics methods to the exponential regime, we extract basic reproductive number R0 (i.e., the measure of COVID-19 inherent biological transmissibility), applying to the completely naive population in the absence of social distancing, for 118 different countries. We then use bioinformatics methods to systematically collect data on a large number of demographics and weather parameters from these countries, and seek their correlations with the rate of COVID-19 spread. In addition to some of the already reported tendencies, we show a number of both novel results and those that help settle existing disputes: the absence of dependence on wind speed and air pressure, negative correlation with precipitation; significant positive correlation with society development level (human development index) irrespective of testing policies, and percent of the urban population, but an absence of correlation with population density per se. We find a strong positive correlation of transmissibility on alcohol consumption, and the absence of correlation on refugee numbers, contrary to some widespread beliefs. Significant tendencies with health-related factors are reported, including a detailed analysis of the blood type group showing consistent tendencies on Rh factor, and a strong positive correlation of transmissibility with cholesterol levels.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
