Using a hybrid of machine learning and epidemiological approaches, we propose a novel data-driven approach in predicting US COVID-19 deaths at a county level. The model gives a more complete description of the daily death distribution, outputting quantile-estimates instead of mean deaths, where the model's objective is to minimize the pinball loss on deaths reported by the New York Times coronavirus county dataset. The resulting quantile estimates accurately forecast deaths at an individual-county level for a variable-length forecast period, and the approach generalizes well across different forecast period lengths. We won the Caltech-run modeling competition out of 50+ teams, and our aggregate is competitive with the best COVID-19 modeling systems (on root mean squared error).
Scientific advice to the UK government throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has been informed by ensembles of epidemiological models provided by members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (SPI-M). Among other applications, the model ensembles have been used to forecast daily incidence, deaths and hospitalizations. The models differ in approach (e.g. deterministic or agent-based) and in assumptions made about the disease and population. These differences capture genuine uncertainty in the understanding of disease dynamics and in the choice of simplifying assumptions underpinnin…
The Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) study is a long-running prospective study of incident all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). As the cohort ages, death (a terminal event) is a prominent competing risk for AD (a non-terminal event), although the reverse is not the case. As such, analyses of data from ACT can be placed within the semi-competing risks framework. Central to semi-competing risks, and in contrast to standard competing risks, is that one can learn about the dependence structure between the two events. To-date, however, most methods for semi-competing risks treat dependenc…
University of California-Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；UCLA Fielding School of Public Health（加州大学洛杉矶分校菲尔丁公共卫生学院）
There is an escalating need for methods to identify latent patterns in text data from many domains. We introduce a new method to identify topics in a corpus and represent documents as topic sequences. Discourse Atom Topic Modeling draws on advances in theoretical machine learning to integrate topic modeling and word embedding, capitalizing on the distinct capabilities of each. We first identify a set of vectors ("discourse atoms") that provide a sparse representation of an embedding space. Atom vectors can be interpreted as latent topics: Through a generative model, atoms map onto distribution…
Decision tree ensembles are widely used and competitive learning models. Despite their success, popular toolkits for learning tree ensembles have limited modeling capabilities. For instance, these toolkits support a limited number of loss functions and are restricted to single task learning. We propose a flexible framework for learning tree ensembles, which goes beyond existing toolkits to support arbitrary loss functions, missing responses, and multi-task learning. Our framework builds on differentiable (a.k.a. soft) tree ensembles, which can be trained using first-order methods. However, unl…
Mederrata Research and Sound Prediction（Mederrata研究与声音预测公司）；NIH NIDDK（美国国立卫生研究院国家糖尿病、消化与肾脏疾病研究所）；Mederrata Research（Mederrata研究公司）；Blue Health Intelligence（蓝色健康智能公司）；Walter Reed Army Institute of Research（沃尔特·里德陆军研究所）；Sound Prediction and Mederrata Research（声音预测与Mederrata研究公司）
We developed an inherently interpretable multilevel Bayesian framework for representing variation in regression coefficients that mimics the piecewise linearity of ReLU-activated deep neural networks. We used the framework to formulate a survival model for using medical claims to predict hospital readmission and death that focuses on discharge placement, adjusting for confounding in estimating causal local average treatment effects. We trained the model on a 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2008 and 2011, based on their 2009--2011 inpatient episodes, and then tested the model on 2012 e…
Islamic Azad University, Ardabil Branch（伊斯兰阿扎德大学阿尔达比勒分校）；Sama technical and vocational training college, Islamic Azad University, Ardabil branch（伊斯兰阿扎德大学阿尔达比勒分校萨马职业技术培训学院）；Iran University of Science and Technology（伊朗科技大学）
The recent global outbreak of covid-19 is affecting many countries around the world. Due to the growing number of newly infected individuals and the health-care system bottlenecks, it will be useful to predict the upcoming number of patients. This study aims to efficiently forecast the is used to estimate new cases, number of deaths, and number of recovered patients in Iran for 180 days, using the official dataset of the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education and the impact of control measures on the spread of COVID-19. Four different types of forecasting techniques, time series, and…
Optimal implementation and monitoring of wind energy generation hinge on reliable power modeling that is vital for understanding turbine control, farm operational optimization, and grid load balance. Based on the idea of similar wind condition leads to similar wind power; this paper constructs a modeling scheme that orderly integrates three types of ensemble learning algorithms, bagging, boosting, and stacking, and clustering approaches to achieve optimal power modeling. It also investigates applications of different clustering algorithms and methodology for determining cluster numbers in wind…
The four essential chambers of one's heart that lie in the thoracic cavity are crucial for one's survival, yet ironically prove to be the most vulnerable. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) also commonly referred to as heart disease has steadily grown to the leading cause of death amongst humans over the past few decades. Taking this concerning statistic into consideration, it is evident that patients suffering from CVDs need a quick and correct diagnosis in order to facilitate early treatment to lessen the chances of fatality. This paper attempts to utilize the data provided to train classification…
National Taiwan University of Science and Technology（台湾科技大学）；Trend Micro（趋势科技）
In this paper, we propose a Classification Confidence Network (CLCNet) that can determine whether the classification model classifies input samples correctly. It can take a classification result in the form of vector in any dimension, and return a confidence score as output, which represents the probability of an instance being classified correctly. We can utilize CLCNet in a simple cascade structure system consisting of several SOTA (state-of-the-art) classification models, and our experiments show that the system can achieve the following advantages: 1. The system can customize the average c…
In this manuscript (ms), we propose causal inference based single-branch ensemble trees for uplift modeling, namely CIET. Different from standard classification methods for predictive probability modeling, CIET aims to achieve the change in the predictive probability of outcome caused by an action or a treatment. According to our CIET, two partition criteria are specifically designed to maximize the difference in outcome distribution between the treatment and control groups. Next, a novel single-branch tree is built by taking a top-down node partition approach, and the remaining samples are ce…
Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València（瓦伦西亚理工大学水与环境工程研究院）
The ensemble random forest filter (ERFF) is presented as an alternative to the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for the purpose of inverse modeling. The EnKF is a data assimilation approach that forecasts and updates parameter estimates sequentially in time as observations are being collected. The updating step is based on the experimental covariances computed from an ensemble of realizations and the updates are given as linear combinations of the differences between observations and forecasted system state values. The ERFF replaces the linear combination in the update step with a non-linear func…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；The Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）；UCLA（加州大学洛杉矶分校）
Medical time-series datasets have unique characteristics that make prediction tasks challenging. Most notably, patient trajectories often contain longitudinal variations in their input-output relationships, generally referred to as temporal conditional shift. Designing sequence models capable of adapting to such time-varying distributions remains a prevailing problem. To address this we present Model-Attentive Ensemble learning for Sequence modeling (MAES). MAES is a mixture of time-series experts which leverages an attention-based gating mechanism to specialize the experts on different sequen…
The use of machine learning (ML) model as digital-twins for reduced-order-modeling (ROM) in lieu of system codes has grown traction over the past few years. However, due to the complex and non-linear nature of nuclear reactor transients as well as the large range of tasks required, it is infeasible for a single ML model to generalize across all tasks. In this paper, we incorporate issue specific digital-twin ML models with ensembles to enhance the prediction outcome. The ensemble also utilizes an indirect probabilistic tracking method of surrogate state variables to produce accurate prediction…
Drug-target interaction (DTI) prediction plays a crucial role in drug discovery, and deep learning approaches have achieved state-of-the-art performance in this field. We introduce an ensemble of deep learning models (EnsembleDLM) for DTI prediction. EnsembleDLM only uses the sequence information of chemical compounds and proteins, and it aggregates the predictions from multiple deep neural networks. This approach not only achieves state-of-the-art performance in Davis and KIBA datasets but also reaches cutting-edge performance in the cross-domain applications across different bio-activity typ…
University of California, Berkeley（加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校）；University of California, San Francisco（加利福尼亚大学旧金山分校）；Chan Zuckerberg Biohub（陈·扎克伯格生物中心）
As the COVID-19 outbreak evolves, accurate forecasting continues to play an extremely important role in informing policy decisions. In this paper, we present our continuous curation of a large data repository containing COVID-19 information from a range of sources. We use this data to develop predictions and corresponding prediction intervals for the short-term trajectory of COVID-19 cumulative death counts at the county-level in the United States up to two weeks ahead. Using data from January 22 to June 20, 2020, we develop and combine multiple forecasts using ensembling techniques, resulting…
Human personality is significantly represented by those words which he/she uses in his/her speech or writing. As a consequence of spreading the information infrastructures (specifically the Internet and social media), human communications have reformed notably from face to face communication. Generally, Automatic Personality Prediction (or Perception) (APP) is the automated forecasting of the personality on different types of human generated/exchanged contents (like text, speech, image, video, etc.). The major objective of this study is to enhance the accuracy of APP from the text. To this end…
Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）；Mila（米拉研究所）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
Data is the lifeblood of modern machine learning systems, including for those in Music Information Retrieval (MIR). However, MIR has long been mired by small datasets and unreliable labels. In this work, we propose to break this bottleneck using generative modeling. By pipelining a generative model of notes (Coconet trained on Bach Chorales) with a structured synthesis model of chamber ensembles (MIDI-DDSP trained on URMP), we demonstrate a system capable of producing unlimited amounts of realistic chorale music with rich annotations including mixes, stems, MIDI, note-level performance attribu…
While long short-term memory (LSTM) models have demonstrated stellar performance with streamflow predictions, there are major risks in applying these models in contiguous regions with no gauges, or predictions in ungauged regions (PUR) problems. However, softer data such as the flow duration curve (FDC) may be already available from nearby stations, or may become available. Here we demonstrate that sparse FDC data can be migrated and assimilated by an LSTM-based network, via an encoder. A stringent region-based holdout test showed a median Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.62 for a US dataset,…
Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；The University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）
Machine learning (ML) continues to grow in importance across nearly all domains and is a natural tool in modeling to learn from data. Often a tradeoff exists between a model's ability to minimize bias and variance. In this paper, we utilize ensemble learning to combine linear, nonlinear, and tree-/rule-based ML methods to cope with the bias-variance tradeoff and result in more accurate models. Hardware performance counter values are correlated with properties of applications that impact performance and power on the underlying system. We use the datasets collected for two parallel cancer deep l…
The main aim in ensemble learning is using multiple individual classifiers outputs rather than one classifier output to aggregate them for more accurate classification. Generating an ensemble classifier generally is composed of three steps: selecting the base classifier, applying a sampling strategy to generate different individual classifiers and aggregation the classifiers outputs. This paper focuses on the classifiers outputs aggregation step and presents a new interval-based aggregation modeling using bagging resampling approach and Interval Agreement Approach (IAA) in ensemble learning. I…
Kuaishou Technology（快手科技）；Zhongnan University of Economics and Law（中南财经政法大学）；Zhejiang University（浙江大学）
While large scale pre-training has achieved great achievements in bridging the gap between vision and language, it still faces several challenges. First, the cost for pre-training is expensive. Second, there is no efficient way to handle the data noise which degrades model performance. Third, previous methods only leverage limited image-text paired data, while ignoring richer single-modal data, which may result in poor generalization to single-modal downstream tasks. In this work, we propose an EfficientCLIP method via Ensemble Confident Learning to obtain a less noisy data subset. Extra rich …
