利用贝叶斯网络特征将项目管理成熟度与项目超支风险联系起来
Use of Bayesian Network characteristics to link project management maturity and risk of project overcost
摘要：
提高项目成功概率是项目管理领域的当务之急。专家们已经开发了几个项目管理成熟度模型，以资产和提高项目成果。然而，目前的文献缺乏模型，允许相关的测量成熟度和预期的成功概率。本文利用贝叶斯网络的特点，对专家知识进行形式化描述，并从一个项目超支数据库中提取知识。提出了一种评估项目管理成熟度对项目超支风险影响的方法。提出了一个总体框架。最后以一个工业实例说明了该方法的应用。
英文摘要：
The project management field has the imperative to increase the project probability of success. Experts have developed several project management maturity models to assets and improve the project outcome. However, the current literature lacks of models allowing correlating the measured maturity and the expected probability of success. This paper uses the characteristics of Bayesian networks to formalize experts' knowledge and to extract knowledge from a project overcost database. It develops a method to estimate the impact of project management maturity on the risk of project overcost. A general framework is presented. An industrial case is used to illustrate the application of the method.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
