The global pandemic caused by COVID-19 affects our lives in all aspects. As of September 11, more than 28 million people have tested positive for COVID-19 infection, and more than 911,000 people have lost their lives in this virus battle. Some patients can not receive appropriate medical treatment due the limits of hospitalization volume and shortage of ICU beds. An estimated future hospitalization is critical so that medical resources can be allocated as needed. In this study, we propose to use 4 recurrent neural networks to infer hospitalization change for the following week compared with the current week. Results show that sequence to sequence model with attention achieves a high accuracy of 0.938 and AUC of 0.850 in the hospitalization prediction. Our work has the potential to predict the hospitalization need and send a warning to medical providers and other stakeholders when a re-surge initializes.
H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA（佐治亚理工学院工业与系统工程学院）
As the COVID-19 spread over the globe and new variants of COVID-19 keep occurring, reliable real-time forecasts of COVID-19 hospitalizations are critical for public health decision on medical resources allocations such as ICU beds, ventilators, and personnel to prepare for the surge of COVID-19 pandemics. Inspired by the strong association between public search behavior and hospitalization admission, we extended previously-proposed influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), to predict future 2-week national and state-level COVID-19 new hospital admissions. Leverag…
We propose the SH model, a simplified version of the well-known SIR compartmental model of infectious diseases. With optimized parameters and initial conditions, this time-invariant two-parameter two-dimensional model is able to fit COVID-19 hospitalization data over several months with high accuracy (e.g., the root relative squared error is below 10% for Belgium over the period from 2020-03-15 to 2020-07-15). Moreover, we observed that, when the model is trained on a suitable three-week period around the first hospitalization peak for Belgium, it forecasts the subsequent two months with mean …
Integrating Spatiotemporal Features in LSTM for Spatially Informed COVID-19 Hospitalization Forecasting
Heilbrunn Department of Population and Family Health, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health（哥伦比亚大学流行病学与家庭健康系）；Department of Geography, University of Colorado（科罗拉多大学地理系）；Population Council（人口理事会）
IBM Research Europe（IBM欧洲研究院）；IBM GBS Germany（IBM德国全球企业咨询服务部）；IBM GBS Switzerland（IBM瑞士全球企业咨询服务部）；Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico（Ca' Granda基金会IRCCS马焦雷综合医院）；Humanitas University（人道大学）；IRCCS - Humanitas Research Hospital（IRCCS人道研究医院）；IBM GBS Italy（IBM意大利全球企业咨询服务部）
We develop various AI models to predict hospitalization on a large (over 110$k$) cohort of COVID-19 positive-tested US patients, sourced from March 2020 to February 2021. Models range from Random Forest to Neural Network (NN) and Time Convolutional NN, where combination of the data modalities (tabular and time dependent) are performed at different stages (early vs. model fusion). Despite high data unbalance, the models reach average precision 0.96-0.98 (0.75-0.85), recall 0.96-0.98 (0.74-0.85), and $F_1$-score 0.97-0.98 (0.79-0.83) on the non-hospitalized (or hospitalized) class. Performances …
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused devastating economic and social disruption, straining the resources of healthcare institutions worldwide. This has led to a nationwide call for models to predict hospitalization and severe illness in patients with COVID-19 to inform distribution of limited healthcare resources. We respond to one of these calls specific to the pediatric population. To address this challenge, we study two prediction tasks for the pediatric population using electronic health records: 1) predicting which children are more likely to be hospitalized, and 2) among hospitalized childre…
University of Maryland Baltimore School of Medicine（马里兰大学巴尔的摩医学院）
Background: The novel coronavirus, COVID-19, was first detected in the United States in January 2020. To curb the spread of the disease in mid-March, different states issued mandatory stay-at-home (SAH) orders. These nonpharmaceutical interventions were mandated based on prior experiences, such as the 1918 influenza epidemic. Hence, we decided to study the impact of restrictions on mobility on reducing COVID-19 transmission. Methods: We designed an ecological time series study with our exposure variable as Mobility patterns in the state of Maryland for March- December 2020 and our outcome vari…
Duke University（杜克大学）；Duke Clinical Research Institute（杜克临床研究所）
To identify patients who are hospitalized because of COVID-19 as opposed to those who were admitted for other indications, we compared the performance of different computable phenotype definitions for COVID-19 hospitalizations that use different types of data from the electronic health records (EHR), including structured EHR data elements, provider notes, or a combination of both data types. And conduct a retrospective data analysis utilizing chart review-based validation. Participants are 586 hospitalized individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January 2022. We used natural lang…
Massachusetts General Hospital（麻省总医院）；Mass General Brigham（麻省百瀚医疗系统）；Harvard Medical School（哈佛医学院）
We developed MLHO (pronounced as melo), an end-to-end Machine Learning framework that leverages iterative feature and algorithm selection to predict Health Outcomes. MLHO implements iterative sequential representation mining, and feature and model selection, for predicting the patient-level risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, need for mechanical ventilation, and death. It bases this prediction on data from patients' past medical records (before their COVID-19 infection). MLHO's architecture enables a parallel and outcome-oriented model calibration, in which different statistical learning a…
Most children infected with COVID-19 have no or mild symptoms and can recover automatically by themselves, but some pediatric COVID-19 patients need to be hospitalized or even to receive intensive medical care (e.g., invasive mechanical ventilation or cardiovascular support) to recover from the illnesses. Therefore, it is critical to predict the severe health risk that COVID-19 infection poses to children to provide precise and timely medical care for vulnerable pediatric COVID-19 patients. However, predicting the severe health risk for COVID-19 patients including children remains a significan…
Caltech（加州理工学院）；Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics（沃尔特·伯克理论物理研究所）
Predictive models with a focus on different spatial-temporal scales benefit governments and healthcare systems to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we present the conditional Long Short-Term Memory networks with Quantile output (condLSTM-Q), a well-performing model for making quantile predictions on COVID-19 death tolls at the county level with a two-week forecast window. This fine geographical scale is a rare but useful feature in publicly available predictive models, which would especially benefit state-level officials to coordinate resources within the state. The quantile predictions from …
In this work, we modify and apply self-supervision techniques to the domain of medical health insurance claims. We model patients' healthcare claims history analogous to free-text narratives, and introduce pre-trained `prior knowledge', later utilized for patient outcome predictions on a challenging task: predicting Covid-19 hospitalization, given a patient's pre-Covid-19 insurance claims history. Results suggest that pre-training on insurance claims not only produces better prediction performance, but, more importantly, improves the model's `clinical trustworthiness' and model stability/relia…
Early detection and isolation of COVID-19 patients are essential for successful implementation of mitigation strategies and eventually curbing the disease spread. With a limited number of daily COVID-19 tests performed in every country, simulating the COVID-19 spread along with the potential effect of each mitigation strategy currently remains one of the most effective ways in managing the healthcare system and guiding policy-makers. We introduce COVIDHunter, a flexible and accurate COVID-19 outbreak simulation model that evaluates the current mitigation measures that are applied to a region, …
The outburst of COVID-19 in late 2019 was the start of a health crisis that shook the world and took millions of lives in the ensuing years. Many governments and health officials failed to arrest the rapid circulation of infection in their communities. The long incubation period and the large proportion of asymptomatic cases made COVID-19 particularly elusive to track. However, wastewater monitoring soon became a promising data source in addition to conventional indicators such as confirmed daily cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Despite the consensus on the effectiveness of wastewater vira…
Background: COVID-19 has become a challenge worldwide and properly planning of medical resources is the key to combating COVID-19. In the US Veteran Affairs Health Care System (VA), many of the enrollees are susceptible to COVID-19. Predicting the COVID-19 to allocate medical resources promptly becomes a critical issue. When the VA enrollees have COVID-19 symptoms, it is recommended that their first step should be to call the VA Call Center. For confirmed COVID-19 patients, the median time from the first symptom to hospital admission was seven days. By predicting the number of COVID-19 related…
The spread of misinformation, conspiracy, and questionable content and information manipulation by foreign adversaries on social media has surged along with the COVID-19 pandemic. Such malicious cyber-enabled actions may cause increasing social polarization, health crises, and property loss. In this paper, using fine-tuned contextualized embedding trained on Reddit, we tackle the detection of the propaganda of such user accounts and their targeted issues on Twitter during March 2020 when the COVID-19 epidemic became recognized as a pandemic. Our result shows that the pro-China group appeared t…
Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi（印度理工学院德里分校）；AFMC, Pune（武装部队医学院，浦那）；CMC Ludhiana（卢迪亚纳基督教医学院）
As the second wave in India mitigates, COVID-19 has now infected about 29 million patients countrywide, leading to more than 350 thousand people dead. As the infections surged, the strain on the medical infrastructure in the country became apparent. While the country vaccinates its population, opening up the economy may lead to an increase in infection rates. In this scenario, it is essential to effectively utilize the limited hospital resources by an informed patient triaging system based on clinical parameters. Here, we present two interpretable machine learning models predicting the clinica…
Barcelona Supercomputing Center（巴塞罗那超级计算中心）；Tokyo Institute of Technology（东京工业大学）；IBM（国际商业机器公司）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Tokyo Medical and Dental University（东京医科齿科大学）
As COVID-19 transmissions spread worldwide, governments have announced and enforced travel restrictions to prevent further infections. Such restrictions have a direct effect on the volume of international flights among these countries, resulting in extensive social and economic costs. To better understand the situation in a quantitative manner, we used the Opensky network data to clarify flight patterns and flight densities around the world and observe relationships between flight numbers with new infections, and with the economy (unemployment rate) in Barcelona. We found that the number of da…
Concordia Institute for Information Systems Engineering (CIISE)（康考迪亚信息系统工程研究所）；Concordia University（康考迪亚大学）；Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre（森尼布鲁克健康科学中心）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；McGill University Health Center-Research Institute（麦吉尔大学健康中心研究所）；University of Calgary（卡尔加里大学）
The novel Coronavirus disease, COVID-19, has rapidly and abruptly changed the world as we knew in 2020. It becomes the most unprecedent challenge to analytic epidemiology in general and signal processing theories in specific. Given its high contingency nature and adverse effects across the world, it is important to develop efficient processing/learning models to overcome this pandemic and be prepared for potential future ones. In this regard, medical imaging plays an important role for the management of COVID-19. Human-centered interpretation of medical images is, however, tedious and can be s…
