We present a new method for multi-modal, long-term vehicle trajectory prediction. Our approach relies on using lane centerlines captured in rich maps of the environment to generate a set of proposed goal paths for each vehicle. Using these paths -- which are generated at run time and therefore dynamically adapt to the scene -- as spatial anchors, we predict a set of goal-based trajectories along with a categorical distribution over the goals. This approach allows us to directly model the goal-directed behavior of traffic actors, which unlocks the potential for more accurate long-term prediction. Our experimental results on both a large-scale internal driving dataset and on the public nuScenes dataset show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for vehicle trajectory prediction over a 6-second horizon. We also empirically demonstrate that our model is better able to generalize to road scenes from a completely new city than existing methods.
Many AI problems, in robotics and other domains, are goal-directed, essentially seeking a trajectory leading to some goal state. In such problems, the way we choose to represent a trajectory underlies algorithms for trajectory prediction and optimization. Interestingly, most all prior work in imitation and reinforcement learning builds on a sequential trajectory representation -- calculating the next state in the trajectory given its predecessors. We propose a different perspective: a goal-conditioned trajectory can be represented by first selecting an intermediate state between start and goal…
Predicting future trajectories of road agents is a critical task for autonomous driving. Recent goal-based trajectory prediction methods, such as DenseTNT and PECNet, have shown good performance on prediction tasks on public datasets. However, they usually require complicated goal-selection algorithms and optimization. In this work, we propose KEMP, a hierarchical end-to-end deep learning framework for trajectory prediction. At the core of our framework is keyframe-based trajectory prediction, where keyframes are representative states that trace out the general direction of the trajectory. KEM…
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；Araya Inc.（Araya公司）
Hindsight experience replay (HER) is a goal relabelling technique typically used with off-policy deep reinforcement learning algorithms to solve goal-oriented tasks; it is well suited to robotic manipulation tasks that deliver only sparse rewards. In HER, both trajectories and transitions are sampled uniformly for training. However, not all of the agent's experiences contribute equally to training, and so naive uniform sampling may lead to inefficient learning. In this paper, we propose diversity-based trajectory and goal selection with HER (DTGSH). Firstly, trajectories are sampled according …
In this paper, we introduce a novel method to capture visual trajectories for navigating an indoor robot in dynamic settings using streaming image data. First, an image processing pipeline is proposed to accurately segment trajectories from noisy backgrounds. Next, the captured trajectories are used to design, train, and compare two neural network architectures for predicting acceleration and steering commands for a line following robot over a continuous space in real time. Lastly, experimental results demonstrate the performance of the neural networks versus human teleoperation of the robot a…
Many AI problems, in robotics and other domains, are goal-based, essentially seeking trajectories leading to various goal states. Reinforcement learning (RL), building on Bellman's optimality equation, naturally optimizes for a single goal, yet can be made multi-goal by augmenting the state with the goal. Instead, we propose a new RL framework, derived from a dynamic programming equation for the all pairs shortest path (APSP) problem, which naturally solves multi-goal queries. We show that this approach has computational benefits for both standard and approximate dynamic programming. Interesti…
Kyushu Institute of Technology（九州工业大学）；RIKEN center for Advanced Intelligence Project（理化学研究所先进智能项目中心）
Imitation learning is an intuitive approach for teaching motion to robotic systems. Although previous studies have proposed various methods to model demonstrated movement primitives, one of the limitations of existing methods is that the shape of the trajectories are encoded in high dimensional space. The high dimensionality of the trajectory representation can be a bottleneck in the subsequent process such as planning a sequence of primitive motions. We address this problem by learning the latent space of the robot trajectory. If the latent variable of the trajectories can be learned, it can …
Sberbank Robotics Laboratory（俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行机器人实验室）；Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology（斯科尔科沃科学技术研究院）
Differential dynamic programming (DDP) is a widely used and powerful trajectory optimization technique, however, due to its internal structure, it is not exempt from local minima. In this paper, we present Differential Dynamic Programming with Escape Network (DDPEN) - a novel approach to avoid DDP local minima by utilising an additional term used in the optimization criteria pointing towards the direction where robot should move in order to escape local minima. In order to produce the aforementioned directions, we propose to utilize a deep model that takes as an input the map of the environmen…
Robotic systems must be able to quickly and robustly make decisions when operating in uncertain and dynamic environments. While Reinforcement Learning (RL) can be used to compute optimal policies with little prior knowledge about the environment, it suffers from slow convergence. An alternative approach is Model Predictive Control (MPC), which optimizes policies quickly, but also requires accurate models of the system dynamics and environment. In this paper we propose a new approach, adaptive probabilistic trajectory optimization, that combines the benefits of RL and MPC. Our method uses scala…
Probabilistic vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for robust safety of autonomous driving. Current methods for long-term trajectory prediction cannot guarantee the physical feasibility of predicted distribution. Moreover, their models cannot adapt to the driving policy of the predicted target human driver. In this work, we propose to overcome these two shortcomings by a Bayesian recurrent neural network model consisting of Bayesian-neural-network-based policy model and known physical model of the scenario. Bayesian neural network can ensemble complicated output distribution, enabling ri…
This paper investigates a hybrid solution which combines deep reinforcement learning (RL) and classical trajectory planning for the following in front application. Here, an autonomous robot aims to stay ahead of a person as the person freely walks around. Following in front is a challenging problem as the user's intended trajectory is unknown and needs to be estimated, explicitly or implicitly, by the robot. In addition, the robot needs to find a feasible way to safely navigate ahead of human trajectory. Our deep RL module implicitly estimates human trajectory and produces short-term navigatio…
Discrete-time stochastic optimal control remains a challenging problem for general, nonlinear systems under significant uncertainty, with practical solvers typically relying on the certainty equivalence assumption, replanning and/or extensive regularization. Control as inference is an approach that frames stochastic control as an equivalent inference problem, and has demonstrated desirable qualities over existing methods, namely in exploration and regularization. We look specifically at the input inference for control (i2c) algorithm, and derive three key characteristics that enable advanced t…
University of Padova（帕多瓦大学）；University of Modena and Reggio Emilia（摩德纳-雷焦艾米利亚大学）
Human trajectory forecasting is a key component of autonomous vehicles, social-aware robots and advanced video-surveillance applications. This challenging task typically requires knowledge about past motion, the environment and likely destination areas. In this context, multi-modality is a fundamental aspect and its effective modeling can be beneficial to any architecture. Inferring accurate trajectories is nevertheless challenging, due to the inherently uncertain nature of the future. To overcome these difficulties, recent models use different inputs and propose to model human intentions usin…
While many theoretical works concerning Adaptive Dynamic Programming (ADP) have been proposed, application results are scarce. Therefore, we design an ADP-based optimal trajectory tracking controller and apply it to a large-scale ball-on-plate system. Our proposed method incorporates an approximated reference trajectory instead of using setpoint tracking and allows to automatically compensate for constant offset terms. Due to the off-policy characteristics of the algorithm, the method requires only a small amount of measured data to train the controller. Our experimental results show that this…
Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院计算机科学与人工智能实验室）；Toyota Research Institute（丰田研究院）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory（计算机科学与人工智能实验室）
Modeling multi-modal high-level intent is important for ensuring diversity in trajectory prediction. Existing approaches explore the discrete nature of human intent before predicting continuous trajectories, to improve accuracy and support explainability. However, these approaches often assume the intent to remain fixed over the prediction horizon, which is problematic in practice, especially over longer horizons. To overcome this limitation, we introduce HYPER, a general and expressive hybrid prediction framework that models evolving human intent. By modeling traffic agents as a hybrid discre…
Multidimensional Adaptive Coefficient for Inference Trajectory Optimization in Flow and Diffusion
Music and Audio Research Group, Department of Intelligence and Information, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea（智能信息系音频研究组，首尔国立大学，韩国首尔）；Interdisciplinary Program in Artificial Intelligence, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea（人工智能跨学科项目，首尔国立大学，韩国首尔）；Artificial Intelligence Institute, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea（人工智能研究所，首尔国立大学，韩国首尔）；School of Computing, KAIST, Daejeon, Korea（计算学院，韩国科学技术院，韩国大田）
针对flow and diffusion模型缺乏维度自由和推理轨迹适应性的问题，提出插件模块MAC，通过多维系数扩展和基于模拟反馈的对抗训练，以高训练效率提升生成质量，为推理轨迹优化提供新视角。
Beyond Optimal Rates in Stochastic Optimization: Trajectory-Adaptive Stopping Rules
UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Inria（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；École Normale Supérieure（巴黎高等师范学院）；PSL Research University（巴黎文理研究大学）；Department of Statistics, UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校统计系）
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；NASA Ames Research Center（NASA艾姆斯研究中心）；GE Aviation（通用电气航空）；GE Global Research（通用电气全球研究中心）
To find failure events and their likelihoods in flight-critical systems, we investigate the use of an advanced black-box stress testing approach called adaptive stress testing. We analyze a trajectory predictor from a developmental commercial flight management system which takes as input a collection of lateral waypoints and en-route environmental conditions. Our aim is to search for failure events relating to inconsistencies in the predicted lateral trajectories. The intention of this work is to find likely failures and report them back to the developers so they can address and potentially re…
Modern power systems will have to face difficult challenges in the years to come: frequent blackouts in urban areas caused by high power demand peaks, grid instability exacerbated by intermittent renewable generation, and global climate change amplified by rising carbon emissions. While current practices are growingly inadequate, the path to widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) methods is hindered by missing aspects of trustworthiness. The CityLearn Challenge is an exemplary opportunity for researchers from multiple disciplines to investigate the potential of AI to tackle these …
