To find failure events and their likelihoods in flight-critical systems, we investigate the use of an advanced black-box stress testing approach called adaptive stress testing. We analyze a trajectory predictor from a developmental commercial flight management system which takes as input a collection of lateral waypoints and en-route environmental conditions. Our aim is to search for failure events relating to inconsistencies in the predicted lateral trajectories. The intention of this work is to find likely failures and report them back to the developers so they can address and potentially resolve shortcomings of the system before deployment. To improve search performance, this work extends the adaptive stress testing formulation to be applied more generally to sequential decision-making problems with episodic reward by collecting the state transitions during the search and evaluating at the end of the simulated rollout. We use a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm with progressive widening as our adversarial reinforcement learner. The performance is compared to direct Monte Carlo simulations and to the cross-entropy method as an alternative importance sampling baseline. The goal is to find potential problems otherwise not found by traditional requirements-based testing. Results indicate that our adaptive stress testing approach finds more failures and finds failures with higher likelihood relative to the baseline approaches.
University of Piraeus（比雷埃夫斯大学）；University of Ioannina（约阿尼纳大学）；Frauhofer Institute IAIS（弗劳恩霍夫智能分析与信息系统研究所）；CRIDA
In this article, we report on the efficiency and effectiveness of multiagent reinforcement learning methods (MARL) for the computation of flight delays to resolve congestion problems in the Air Traffic Management (ATM) domain. Specifically, we aim to resolve cases where demand of airspace use exceeds capacity (demand-capacity problems), via imposing ground delays to flights at the pre-tactical stage of operations (i.e. few days to few hours before operation). Casting this into the multiagent domain, agents, representing flights, need to decide on own delays w.r.t. own preferences, having no in…
Revenue management can enable airline corporations to maximize the revenue generated from each scheduled flight departing in their transportation network by means of finding the optimal policies for differential pricing, seat inventory control and overbooking. As different demand segments in the market have different Willingness-To-Pay (WTP), airlines use differential pricing, booking restrictions, and service amenities to determine different fare classes or products targeted at each of these demand segments. Because seats are limited for each flight, airlines also need to allocate seats for e…
Since the 1970s, most airlines have incorporated computerized support for managing disruptions during flight schedule execution. However, existing platforms for airline disruption management (ADM) employ monolithic system design methods that rely on the creation of specific rules and requirements through explicit optimization routines, before a system that meets the specifications is designed. Thus, current platforms for ADM are unable to readily accommodate additional system complexities resulting from the introduction of new capabilities, such as the introduction of unmanned aerial systems (…
Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）；Air Traffic Management Research Institute, Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学空中交通管理研究院）
Electric Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft is considered as the major aircraft type in the emerging urban air mobility. Accurate power consumption estimation is crucial to eVTOL, supporting advanced power management strategies and improving the efficiency and safety performance of flight operations. In this study, a framework for power consumption modeling of eVTOL aircraft was established. We employed an ensemble learning method, namely stacking, to develop a data-driven model using flight records of three different types of quadrotors. Random forest and extreme gradient boosting, showing…
The MITRE Corporation（MITRE公司）；Federal Aviation Administration（美国联邦航空管理局）
Transformers have become the de-facto standard in the natural language processing (NLP) field. They have also gained momentum in computer vision and other domains. Transformers can enable artificial intelligence (AI) models to dynamically focus on certain parts of their input and thus reason more effectively. Inspired by the success of transformers, we adopted this technique to predict strategic flight departure demand in multiple horizons. This work was conducted in support of a MITRE-developed mobile application, Pacer, which displays predicted departure demand to general aviation (GA) fligh…
New York University（纽约大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
The most recent financial upheavals have cast doubt on the adequacy of some of the conventional quantitative risk management strategies, such as VaR (Value at Risk), in many common situations. Consequently, there has been an increasing need for verisimilar financial stress testings, namely simulating and analyzing financial portfolios in extreme, albeit rare scenarios. Unlike conventional risk management which exploits statistical correlations among financial instruments, here we focus our analysis on the notion of probabilistic causation, which is embodied by Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks (SBC…
This paper presents the largest publicly available, non-simulated, fleet-wide aircraft flight recording and maintenance log data for use in predicting part failure and maintenance need. We present 31,177 hours of flight data across 28,935 flights, which occur relative to 2,111 unplanned maintenance events clustered into 36 types of maintenance issues. Flights are annotated as before or after maintenance, with some flights occurring on the day of maintenance. Collecting data to evaluate predictive maintenance systems is challenging because it is difficult, dangerous, and unethical to generate d…
The unprecedented increase of commercial airlines and private jets over the next ten years presents a challenge for air traffic control. Precise flight trajectory prediction is of great significance in air transportation management, which contributes to the decision-making for safe and orderly flights. Existing research and application mainly focus on the sequence generation based on historical trajectories, while the aircraft-aircraft interactions in crowded airspace especially the airspaces near busy airports have been largely ignored. On the other hand, there are distinct characteristics of…
Deep Reinforcement Learning for Real-Time Ground Delay Program Revision and Corresponding Flight Delay Assignments
University of California at Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Northwestern University（西北大学）；University of Illinois at Chicago（伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校）；University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）
The MITRE Corporation（MITRE 公司）；Federal Aviation Administration（美国联邦航空管理局）
Inspired by the success of deep learning (DL) in natural language processing (NLP), we applied cutting-edge DL techniques to predict flight departure demand in a strategic time horizon (4 hours or longer). This work was conducted in support of a MITRE-developed mobile application, Pacer, which displays predicted departure demand to general aviation (GA) flight operators so they can have better situation awareness of the potential for departure delays during busy periods. Field demonstrations involving Pacer's previously designed rule-based prediction method showed that the prediction accuracy …
To accommodate the unprecedented increase of commercial airlines over the next ten years, the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) has been implemented in the USA that records large-scale Air Traffic Management (ATM) data to make air travel safer, more efficient, and more economical. A key role of collaborative decision making for air traffic scheduling and airspace resource management is the accurate prediction of flight delay. There has been a lot of attempts to apply data-driven methods such as machine learning to forecast flight delay situation using air traffic data of depa…
