COVID-19大流行中的可持续边境管制政策：数学建模研究
Sustainable Border Control Policy in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Math Modeling Study
摘要：
如果不加控制，输入性COVID-19病例可能会危及国内遏制工作。我们的目标是找出不同实体（例如，在重新开放阶段，由于各国自己选择了国内控制措施和接触者追踪等新技术，我们提出了一个SUIHR模型，这是一个扩展的离散时间SIR模型。该模型侧重于研究主要由无症状和症状前患者传播的病毒。输入风险和（一级）接触者追踪都内置于模型中。在合理的参数假设下，我们寻求可持续的边境控制政策，并结合足够的内部措施，使实体能够限制病毒，而无需恢复更严格的生活方式或依赖群体免疫。当COVID-19的基础繁殖数超过2.5时，即使100%有效的接触者追踪也不足以遏制传播。对于一个已经在国内完全消除病毒并恢复“正常”的实体来说，非常严格的出发前筛查和检测以及抵达后的隔离加上有效的接触者追踪只能将另一次疫情推迟6个月。但是，如果净输入病例总数没有增加，并且该实体采用了限制性的国内控制政策，那么即使没有边境控制，也可以控制新病例总数。
英文摘要：
Imported COVID-19 cases, if unchecked, can jeopardize the effort of domestic containment. We aim to find out what sustainable border control options for different entities (e.g., countries, states) exist during the reopening phases, given their own choice of domestic control measures and new technologies such as contact tracing. We propose a SUIHR model, which represents an extension to the discrete time SIR models. The model focuses on studying the spreading of virus predominantly by asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic patients. Imported risk and (1-tier) contact tracing are both built into the model. Under plausible parameter assumptions, we seek sustainable border control policies, in combination with sufficient internal measures, which allow entities to confine the virus without the need to revert back to more restrictive life styles or to rely on herd immunity. When the base reproduction number of COVID-19 exceeds 2.5, even 100% effective contact tracing alone is not enough to contain the spreading. For an entity that has completely eliminated the virus domestically, and resumes "normal", very strict pre-departure screening and test and isolation upon arrival combined with effective contact tracing can only delay another outbreak by 6 months. However, if the total net imported cases are non-increasing, and the entity employs a confining domestic control policy, then the total new cases can be contained even without border control.
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