Coordinated online behaviors are an essential part of information and influence operations, as they allow a more effective disinformation's spread. Most studies on coordinated behaviors involved manual investigations, and the few existing computational approaches make bold assumptions or oversimplify the problem to make it tractable. Here, we propose a new network-based framework for uncovering and studying coordinated behaviors on social media. Our research extends existing systems and goes beyond limiting binary classifications of coordinated and uncoordinated behaviors. It allows to expose different coordination patterns and to estimate the degree of coordination that characterizes diverse communities. We apply our framework to a dataset collected during the 2019 UK General Election, detecting and characterizing coordinated communities that participated in the electoral debate. Our work conveys both theoretical and practical implications and provides more nuanced and fine-grained results for studying online information manipulation.
Bots, software-controlled accounts that operate on social media, have been used to manipulate and deceive. We studied the characteristics and activity of bots around major political events, including elections in various countries. In this chapter, we summarize our findings of bot operations in the context of the 2016 and 2018 US Presidential and Midterm elections and the 2017 French Presidential election.
One of the hallmarks of a free and fair society is the ability to conduct a peaceful and seamless transfer of power from one leader to another. Democratically, this is measured in a citizen population's trust in the electoral system of choosing a representative government. In view of the well documented issues of the 2016 US Presidential election, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the 2018 US Midterm elections looking specifically for voter fraud or suppression. The Midterm election occurs in the middle of a 4 year presidential term. For the 2018 midterms, 35 senators and all the 435 seats …
Following the 2016 US presidential election, there has been an increased focus on politically-motivated manipulation of mass-user behavior on social media platforms. Since a large volume of political discussion occurs on these platforms, identifying malicious activity and coordinated campaigns is essential to ensuring a robust democratic environment. Twitter has become a critical communication channel for politicians and other public figures, enabling them to maintain a direct relationship with supporters. However, the platform has been fertile ground for large-scale malicious activity. As the…
Social media are now a routine part of political campaigns all over the world. However, studies of the impact of campaigning on social platform have thus far been limited to cross-sectional datasets from one election period which are vulnerable to unobserved variable bias. Hence empirical evidence on the effectiveness of political social media activity is thin. We address this deficit by analysing a novel panel dataset of political Twitter activity in the 2015 and 2017 elections in the United Kingdom. We find that Twitter based campaigning does seem to help win votes, a finding which is consis…
Today, an estimated 75% of the British public access information about politics and public life online, and 40% do so via social media. With this context in mind, we investigate information sharing patterns over social media in the lead-up to the 2019 UK General Elections, and ask: (1) What type of political news and information were social media users sharing on Twitter ahead of the vote? (2) How much of it is extremist, sensationalist, or conspiratorial junk news? (3) How much public engagement did these sites get on Facebook in the weeks leading and (4) What are the most common narratives a…
The alt-right is a far-right movement that has uniquely developed on social media, before becoming prominent in the 2016 United States presidential elections. However, very little research exists about their discourse and organization online. This study aimed to analyze how a sample of alt-right supporters organized themselves in the week before and after the 2018 midterm elections in the US, along with which topics they most frequently discussed. Using community finding and topic extraction algorithms, results indicated that the sample commonly used racist language and anti-immigration themes…
In modern election campaigns, political parties utilize social media to advertise their policies and candidates and to communicate to the electorate. In Japan's latest general election in 2017, the 48th general election for the Lower House, social media, especially Twitter, was actively used. In this paper, we analyze the users who retweeted tweets of political parties on Twitter during the election. Our aim is to clarify what kinds of users are diffusing (retweeting) tweets of political parties. The results indicate that the characteristics of retweeters of the largest ruling party (Liberal D…
The rise of social media accompanied by the Covid-19 Pandemic has instigated a shift in paradigm in the presidential campaigns in Iran from the real world to social media. Unlike previous presidential elections, there was a decrease in physical events and advertisements for the candidates; in turn, the online presence of presidential candidates is significantly increased. Farsi Twitter played a specific role in this matter, as it became the platform for creating political content. In this study, we found traces of organizational activities in Farsi Twitter. Our investigations reveals that the …
This work analyses surprising elections, and attempts to quantify the notion of surprise in elections. A voter is surprised if their estimate of the winner (assumed to be based on a combination of the preferences of their social connections and popular media predictions) is different from the true winner. A voter's social connections are assumed to consist of contacts on social media and geographically proximate people. We propose a simple mathematical model for combining the global information (traditional media) as well as the local information (local neighbourhood) of a voter in the case of…
In modern election campaigns, political parties utilize social media to advertise their policies and candidates and to communicate to electorates. In Japan's latest general election in 2017, the 48th general election for the Lower House, social media, especially Twitter, was actively used. In this paper, we perform a detailed analysis of social graphs and users who retweeted tweets of political parties during the election. Our aim is to obtain accurate information regarding the diffusion power for each party rather than just the number of followers. The results indicate that a user following a…
US voters shared large volumes of polarizing political news and information in the form of links to content from Russian, WikiLeaks and junk news sources. Was this low quality political information distributed evenly around the country, or concentrated in swing states and particular parts of the country? In this data memo we apply a tested dictionary of sources about political news and information being shared over Twitter over a ten day period around the 2016 Presidential Election. Using self-reported location information, we place a third of users by state and create a simple index for the d…
State-sponsored "bad actors" increasingly weaponize social media platforms to launch cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns during elections. Social media companies, due to their rapid growth and scale, struggle to prevent the weaponization of their platforms. This study conducts an automated spear phishing and disinformation campaign on Twitter ahead of the 2018 United States Midterm Elections. A fake news bot account - the @DCNewsReport - was created and programmed to automatically send customized tweets with a "breaking news" link to 138 Twitter users, before being restricted by Twitter.…
In the context of Turkey's upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections ("seçim" in Turkish), social media is playing an important role in shaping public debate. The increasing engagement of citizens on social media platforms has led to the growing use of social media by political actors. It is of utmost importance to capture the upcoming Turkish elections, as social media is becoming an essential component of election propaganda, political debates, smear campaigns, and election manipulation by domestic and international actors. We provide a comprehensive dataset for social media research…
Disinformation campaigns on social media, involving coordinated activities from malicious accounts towards manipulating public opinion, have become increasingly prevalent. Existing approaches to detect coordinated accounts either make very strict assumptions about coordinated behaviours, or require part of the malicious accounts in the coordinated group to be revealed in order to detect the rest. To address these drawbacks, we propose a generative model, AMDN-HAGE (Attentive Mixture Density Network with Hidden Account Group Estimation) which jointly models account activities and hidden group b…
The present study argues that political communication on social media is mediated by a platform's digital architecture, defined as the technical protocols that enable, constrain, and shape user behavior in a virtual space. A framework for understanding digital architectures is introduced, and four platforms (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Snapchat) are compared along the typology. Using the 2016 US election as a case, interviews with three Republican digital strategists are combined with social media data to qualify the studyies theoretical claim that a platform's network structure, functio…
Sofia University（索菲亚大学）；IIT-CNR（意大利国家研究委员会信息学与电信研究所）；University of Padova（帕多瓦大学）；Qatar Computing Research Institute, HBKU（哈马德·本·哈利法大学卡塔尔计算研究所）
Large-scale manipulations on social media have two important characteristics: (i) use of propaganda to influence others, and (ii) adoption of coordinated behavior to spread it and to amplify its impact. Despite the connection between them, these two characteristics have so far been considered in isolation. Here we aim to bridge this gap. In particular, we analyze the spread of propaganda and its interplay with coordinated behavior on a large Twitter dataset about the 2019 UK general election. We first propose and evaluate several metrics for measuring the use of propaganda on Twitter. Then, we…
Election prediction has long been an evergreen in political science literature. Traditionally, such efforts included polling aggregates, economic indicators, partisan affiliation, and campaign effects to predict aggregate voting outcomes. With increasing secondary usage of online-generated data in social science, researchers have begun to consult metadata from widely used web-based platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, Google Trends and Wikipedia to calibrate forecasting models. Web-based platforms offer the means for voters to retrieve detailed campaign-related information, and for researchers…
In the election, political parties communicate political information to people through social media. The followers receive the information, but can users who are not followers, political detachment users, receive the information? We focus on political detachment users who do not follow any political parties, and tackle the following research question: do political detachment users receive various political information during the election period? The results indicate that the answer is No. We determined that the political detachment users only receive the information of a few political parties.
In recent years, the phenomenon of online misinformation and junk news circulating on social media has come to constitute an important and widespread problem affecting public life online across the globe, particularly around important political events such as elections. At the same time, there have been calls for more transparency around misinformation on social media platforms, as many of the most popular social media platforms function as "walled gardens," where it is impossible for researchers and the public to readily examine the scale and nature of misinformation activity as it unfolds on…
University of South Carolina（南卡罗来纳大学）；Auburn University at Montgomery（奥本大学蒙哥马利分校）
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years, social media such as Twitter has enabled people to share their opinions regarding elections. Social media has provided a platform for collecting a large amount of social media data. This paper proposes a computational public opinion mining approach to explore the discussion of economic issues in social media during an election. Current related studies use text…
The prevalence of online media has attracted researchers from various domains to explore human behavior and make interesting predictions. In this research, we leverage heterogeneous social media data collected from various online platforms to predict Taiwan's 2016 presidential election. In contrast to most existing research, we take a "signal" view of heterogeneous information and adopt the Kalman filter to fuse multiple signals into daily vote predictions for the candidates. We also consider events that influenced the election in a quantitative manner based on the so-called event study model …
Coordinated campaigns are used to influence and manipulate social media platforms and their users, a critical challenge to the free exchange of information online. Here we introduce a general, unsupervised network-based methodology to uncover groups of accounts that are likely coordinated. The proposed method constructs coordination networks based on arbitrary behavioral traces shared among accounts. We present five case studies of influence campaigns, four of which in the diverse contexts of U.S. elections, Hong Kong protests, the Syrian civil war, and cryptocurrency manipulation. In each of …
Political organizations worldwide keep innovating their use of social media technologies. In the 2019 Indian general election, organizers used a network of WhatsApp groups to manipulate Twitter trends through coordinated mass postings. We joined 600 WhatsApp groups that support the Bharatiya Janata Party, the right-wing party that won the general election, to investigate these campaigns. We found evidence of 75 hashtag manipulation campaigns in the form of mobilization messages with lists of pre-written tweets. Building on this evidence, we estimate the campaigns' size, describe their organiza…
While social media has been proved as an exceptionally useful tool to interact with other people and massively and quickly spread helpful information, its great potential has been ill-intentionally leveraged as well to distort political elections and manipulate constituents. In the paper at hand, we analyzed the presence and behavior of social bots on Twitter in the context of the November 2019 Spanish general election. Throughout our study, we classified involved users as social bots or humans, and examined their interactions from a quantitative (i.e., amount of traffic generated and existing…
The integrity of democratic elections depends on voters' access to accurate information. However, modern media environments, which are dominated by social media, provide malicious actors with unprecedented ability to manipulate elections via misinformation, such as fake news. We study a zero-sum game between an attacker, who attempts to subvert an election by propagating a fake new story or other misinformation over a set of advertising channels, and a defender who attempts to limit the attacker's impact. Computing an equilibrium in this game is challenging as even the pure strategy sets of pl…
