Advancements in numerical weather prediction models have accelerated, fostering a more comprehensive understanding of physical phenomena pertaining to the dynamics of weather and related computing resources. Despite these advancements, these models contain inherent biases due to parameterization and linearization of the differential equations that reduce forecasting accuracy. In this work, we investigate the use of a computationally efficient deep learning method, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), as a post-processing technique that improves mesoscale Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) one day forecast (with a one-hour temporal resolution) outputs. Using the CNN architecture, we bias-correct several meteorological parameters calculated by the WRF model for all of 2018. We train the CNN model with a four-year history (2014-2017) to investigate the patterns in WRF biases and then reduce these biases in forecasts for surface wind speed and direction, precipitation, relative humidity, surface pressure, dewpoint temperature, and surface temperature. The WRF data, with a spatial resolution of 27 km, covers South Korea. We obtain ground observations from the Korean Meteorological Administration station network for 93 weather station locations. The results indicate a noticeable improvement in WRF forecasts in all station locations. The average of annual index of agreement for surface wind, precipitation, surface pressure, temperature, dewpoint temperature and relative humidity of all stations are 0.85 (WRF:0.67), 0.62 (WRF:0.56), 0.91 (WRF:0.69), 0.99 (WRF:0.98), 0.98 (WRF:0.98), and 0.92 (WRF:0.87), respectively. While this study focuses on South Korea, the proposed approach can be applied for any measured weather parameters at any location.
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Institute of High Performance Computing（高性能计算研究院）
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and machine learning (ML) methods are popular for solar forecasting. However, NWP models have multiple possible physical parameterizations, which requires site-specific NWP optimization. This is further complicated when regional NWP models are used with global climate models with different possible parameterizations. In this study, an alternative approach is proposed and evaluated for four radiation models. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is run in both global and regional mode to provide an estimate for solar irradiance. This estimate is then po…
The goal of this study was to improve the post-processing of precipitation forecasts using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Instead of post-processing forecasts on a per-pixel basis, as is usually done when employing machine learning in meteorological post-processing, input forecast images were combined and transformed into probabilistic output forecast images using fully convolutional neural networks. CNNs did not outperform regularized logistic regression. Additionally, an ablation analysis was performed. Combining input forecasts from a global low-resolution weather model and a regiona…
The main aim of the present work is to improve the quality of the Etna volcanic ash fallout forecasts through the optimization of an integrated simulation system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the WRF chemistry (WRF - Chem) module. The proposed approach constitutes the first systematic application of the WRF - Chem based protocol to a specific Etna volcanic eruption, with possible effects involving the whole Mediterranean area. On that score, the attention has been focused on the eruption event, recorded on December 2015 from 3$^rd$ to 7$^th$, which led …
A Branched Deep Convolutional Network for Forecasting the Occurrence of Hazes in Paris using Meteorological Maps with Different Characteristic Spatial Scales
Potential Paradigm Shift in Hazard Risk Management: AI-Based Weather Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Hazards
Tongji University（同济大学）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）；University of Wollongong（伍伦贡大学）；Nanjing University（南京大学）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）
Cumulus parameterization controls simulated rainfall more than microphysics, but not at heavy thresholds: a 3 * 2 factorial WRF study over the Western Himalaya
Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar（印度理工学院布巴内斯瓦尔分校）；Indian Institute of Technology Bombay（印度理工学院孟买分校）
This article presents a new method for forecasting Value at Risk. Convolutional neural networks can do time series forecasting, since they can learn local patterns in time. A simple modification enables them to forecast not the mean, but arbitrary quantiles of the distribution, and thus allows them to be applied to VaR-forecasting. The proposed model can learn from the price history of different assets, and it seems to produce fairly accurate forecasts.
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)（荷兰皇家气象研究所（KNMI））；Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学）
Current statistical post-processing methods for probabilistic weather forecasting are not capable of using full spatial patterns from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. In this paper we incorporate spatial wind speed information by using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and obtain probabilistic wind speed forecasts in the Netherlands for 48 hours ahead, based on KNMI's deterministic Harmonie-Arome NWP model. The probabilistic forecasts from the CNNs are shown to have higher Brier skill scores for medium to higher wind speeds, as well as a better continuous ranked probability sco…
Central South University（中南大学）；Hisense TransTech Co., Ltd.（海信网络科技股份有限公司）；Zhejiang University（浙江大学）
Traffic forecasting is a fundamental and challenging task in the field of intelligent transportation. Accurate forecasting not only depends on the historical traffic flow information but also needs to consider the influence of a variety of external factors, such as weather conditions and surrounding POI distribution. Recently, spatiotemporal models integrating graph convolutional networks and recurrent neural networks have become traffic forecasting research hotspots and have made significant progress. However, few works integrate external factors. Therefore, based on the assumption that intro…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
We present a significantly-improved data-driven global weather forecasting framework using a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to forecast several basic atmospheric variables on a global grid. New developments in this framework include an offline volume-conservative mapping to a cubed-sphere grid, improvements to the CNN architecture, and the minimization of the loss function over multiple steps in a prediction sequence. The cubed-sphere remapping minimizes the distortion on the cube faces on which convolution operations are performed and provides natural boundary conditions for padding …
Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）；City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）；Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University（弗吉尼亚理工学院暨州立大学）
Short-term forecasting of passenger flow is critical for transit management and crowd regulation. Spatial dependencies, temporal dependencies, inter-station correlations driven by other latent factors, and exogenous factors bring challenges to the short-term forecasts of passenger flow of urban rail transit networks. An innovative deep learning approach, Multi-Graph Convolutional-Recurrent Neural Network (MGC-RNN) is proposed to forecast passenger flow in urban rail transit systems to incorporate these complex factors. We propose to use multiple graphs to encode the spatial and other heterogen…
Kavli IPMU (WPI), University of Tokyo（东京大学卡弗里数物连携宇宙研究机构（世界顶级国际研究中心））
In this work we propose a novel approach to utilize convolutional neural networks for time series forecasting. The time direction of the sequential data with spatial dimensions $D=1,2$ is considered democratically as the input of a spatiotemporal $(D+1)$-dimensional convolutional neural network. Latter then reduces the data stream from $D +1 \to D$ dimensions followed by an incriminator cell which uses this information to forecast the subsequent time step. We empirically compare this strategy to convolutional LSTM's and LSTM's on their performance on the sequential MNIST and the JSB chorals da…
Bigo Inc.（Bigo公司）；Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；IBM China CIC（IBM中国创新中心）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳））
We present a probabilistic forecasting framework based on convolutional neural network for multiple related time series forecasting. The framework can be applied to estimate probability density under both parametric and non-parametric settings. More specifically, stacked residual blocks based on dilated causal convolutional nets are constructed to capture the temporal dependencies of the series. Combined with representation learning, our approach is able to learn complex patterns such as seasonality, holiday effects within and across series, and to leverage those patterns for more accurate for…
As an important part of intelligent transportation systems, traffic forecasting has attracted tremendous attention from academia and industry. Despite a lot of methods being proposed for traffic forecasting, it is still difficult to model complex spatial-temporal dependency. Temporal dependency includes short-term dependency and long-term dependency, and the latter is often overlooked. Spatial dependency can be divided into two parts: distance-based spatial dependency and hidden spatial dependency. To model complex spatial-temporal dependency, we propose a novel framework for traffic forecasti…
Traffic speed forecasting is one of the core problems in transportation systems. For a more accurate prediction, recent studies started using not only the temporal speed patterns but also the spatial information on the road network through the graph convolutional networks. Even though the road network is highly complex due to its non-Euclidean and directional characteristics, previous approaches mainly focused on modeling the spatial dependencies using the distance only. In this paper, we identify two essential spatial dependencies in traffic forecasting in addition to distance, direction and …
Accurate forecasts of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) from wildfire smoke are crucial to safeguarding cardiopulmonary public health. Existing forecasting systems are trained on sparse and inaccurate ground truths, and do not take sufficient advantage of important spatial inductive biases. In this work, we present a convolutional neural network which preserves sparsity invariance throughout, and leverages multitask learning to perform dense forecasts of PM 2.5values. We demonstrate that our model outperforms two existing smoke forecasting systems during the 2018 and 2019 wildfire season in Bri…
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）
Spatiotemporal forecasting has various applications in neuroscience, climate and transportation domain. Traffic forecasting is one canonical example of such learning task. The task is challenging due to (1) complex spatial dependency on road networks, (2) non-linear temporal dynamics with changing road conditions and (3) inherent difficulty of long-term forecasting. To address these challenges, we propose to model the traffic flow as a diffusion process on a directed graph and introduce Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (DCRNN), a deep learning framework for traffic forecasting …
Peking University（北京大学）；Beijing Institute of Big Data Research（北京大数据研究院）
Timely accurate traffic forecast is crucial for urban traffic control and guidance. Due to the high nonlinearity and complexity of traffic flow, traditional methods cannot satisfy the requirements of mid-and-long term prediction tasks and often neglect spatial and temporal dependencies. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework, Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (STGCN), to tackle the time series prediction problem in traffic domain. Instead of applying regular convolutional and recurrent units, we formulate the problem on graphs and build the model with complete con…
National Central University（国立中央大学）；National Pingtung University（国立屏东大学）；Jiangxi University of Science and Technology（江西理工大学）
In the modern power market, electricity trading is an extremely competitive industry. More accurate price forecast is crucial to help electricity producers and traders make better decisions. In this paper, a novel method of convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed to rapidly provide hourly forecasting in the energy market. To improve prediction accuracy, we divide the annual electricity price data into four categories by seasons and conduct training and forecasting for each category respectively. By comparing the proposed method with other existing methods, we find that the proposed mode…
Sales forecast is an essential task in E-commerce and has a crucial impact on making informed business decisions. It can help us to manage the workforce, cash flow and resources such as optimizing the supply chain of manufacturers etc. Sales forecast is a challenging problem in that sales is affected by many factors including promotion activities, price changes, and user preferences etc. Traditional sales forecast techniques mainly rely on historical sales data to predict future sales and their accuracies are limited. Some more recent learning-based methods capture more information in the mode…
Tropical cyclones remain a major threat to the lives, property and economy of communities around the South West Indian ocean (SWIO), notably Southern Africa and Madagascar. This study uses the weather research forecast (WRF) model to perform a series of simulations for tropical cyclone Enawo with the aim of investigating the effect of an increase or decrease (by 2$^{\circ}C$) in sea surface temperature (SST) on the intensity of the tropical cyclone (using windspeed, precipitation and pressure as measures of cyclone intensity). The experiment uses the data from European Centre for Medium-Range …
Graph Convolutional Network With Pattern-Spatial Interactive and Regional Awareness for Traffic Forecasting
College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Shihezi University（石河子大学机械与电子工程学院）；School of Mathematics and Computational Science, Xiangtan University（湘潭大学数学与计算机科学学院）；College of Sciences, Shihezi University（石河子大学科学学院）
The Advanced Research WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model is a popular atmospheric model used for research and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). However, despite its popularity, its set-up and configuration often demand several interdisciplinary skills that go beyond the understanding of physical processes. Pre-processing tasks, such as importing custom high-resolution datasets in the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS), still require a considerable effort from the user. We present GIS4WRF, a free, open-source, and cross-platform QGIS Python plug-in to help scientists and practitioners …
Deep learning applied to weather forecasting has started gaining popularity because of the progress achieved by data-driven models. The present paper compares two different deep learning architectures to perform weather prediction on daily data gathered from 18 cities across Europe and spanned over a period of 15 years. We propose the Deep Attention Unistream Multistream (DAUM) networks that investigate different types of input representations (i.e. tensorial unistream vs. multistream ) as well as the incorporation of the attention mechanism. In particular, we show that adding a self-attention…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；INRIX, Inc.（因瑞克斯公司）
Traffic forecasting is a particularly challenging application of spatiotemporal forecasting, due to the time-varying traffic patterns and the complicated spatial dependencies on road networks. To address this challenge, we learn the traffic network as a graph and propose a novel deep learning framework, Traffic Graph Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (TGC-LSTM), to learn the interactions between roadways in the traffic network and forecast the network-wide traffic state. We define the traffic graph convolution based on the physical network topology. The relationship between t…
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）
In traffic forecasting, graph convolutional networks (GCNs), which model traffic flows as spatio-temporal graphs, have achieved remarkable performance. However, existing GCN-based methods heuristically define the graph structure as the physical topology of the road network, ignoring potential dependence of the graph structure over traffic data. And the defined graph structure is deterministic, which lacks investigation of uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (BSTGCN) for traffic prediction. The graph structure in our network is learned f…
Time series forecasting is essential for a wide range of real-world applications. Recent studies have shown the superiority of Transformer in dealing with such problems, especially long sequence time series input(LSTI) and long sequence time series forecasting(LSTF) problems. To improve the efficiency and enhance the locality of Transformer, these studies combine Transformer with CNN in varying degrees. However, their combinations are loosely-coupled and do not make full use of CNN. To address this issue, we propose the concept of tightly-coupled convolutional Transformer(TCCT) and three TCCT …
Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学）
Despite the superiority of convolutional neural networks demonstrated in time series modeling and forecasting, it has not been fully explored on the design of the neural network architecture and the tuning of the hyper-parameters. Inspired by the incremental construction strategy for building a random multilayer perceptron, we propose a novel Error-feedback Stochastic Modeling (ESM) strategy to construct a random Convolutional Neural Network (ESM-CNN) for time series forecasting task, which builds the network architecture adaptively. The ESM strategy suggests that random filters and neurons of…
This paper presents an engine able to forecast jointly the concentrations of the main pollutants harming people's health: nitrogen dioxyde (NO2), ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10, which are respectively the particles whose diameters are below 2.5 um and 10 um respectively). The forecasts are performed on a regular grid (the results presented in the paper are produced with a 0.5° resolution grid over Europe and the United States) with a neural network whose architecture includes convolutional LSTM blocks. The engine is fed with the most recent air quality monitoring stations me…
Applying machine learning models to meteorological data brings many opportunities to the Geosciences field, such as predicting future weather conditions more accurately. In recent years, modeling meteorological data with deep neural networks has become a relevant area of investigation. These works apply either recurrent neural networks (RNN) or some hybrid approach mixing RNN and convolutional neural networks (CNN). In this work, we propose STConvS2S (Spatiotemporal Convolutional Sequence to Sequence Network), a deep learning architecture built for learning both spatial and temporal data depen…
Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）
Traffic forecasting approaches are critical to developing adaptive strategies for mobility. Traffic patterns have complex spatial and temporal dependencies that make accurate forecasting on large highway networks a challenging task. Recently, diffusion convolutional recurrent neural networks (DCRNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art results in traffic forecasting by capturing the spatiotemporal dynamics of the traffic. Despite the promising results, however, applying DCRNNs for large highway networks still remains elusive because of computational and memory bottlenecks. We present an approach fo…
Differential Convolutional Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting
University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（电子科技大学）；Huawei Cloud（华为云）；China Mobile Information Technology Center（中国移动信息技术中心）；Vanderbilt University（范德堡大学）
Electricity price is a key factor affecting the decision-making for all market participants. Accurate forecasting of electricity prices is very important and is also very challenging since electricity price is highly volatile due to various factors. This paper proposes an integrated long-term recurrent convolutional network (ILRCN) model to predict electricity prices considering the majority contributing attributes to the market price as input. The proposed ILRCN model combines the functionalities of convolutional neural network and long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm along with the propos…
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院）；School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学经济与管理学院）；School of Economics and Management, Beihang University（北京航空航天大学经济与管理学院）；School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学管理学院）；School of Statistics, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics（兰州财经大学统计学院）
For hourly PM2.5 concentration prediction, accurately capturing the data patterns of external factors that affect PM2.5 concentration changes, and constructing a forecasting model is one of efficient means to improve forecasting accuracy. In this study, a novel hybrid forecasting model based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and deep temporal convolutional neural network (DeepTCN) is developed to predict PM2.5 concentration, by modelling the data patterns of historical pollutant concentrations data, meteorological data, and discrete time variables'…
PCDCNet: A Surrogate Model for Air Quality Forecasting with Physical-Chemical Dynamics and Constraints
School of Systems Science Beijing Normal University（系统科学学院 北京师范大学）；D-ITET, ETH Zurich（ETH Zurich 信息科技系）；Swiss Data Science Center（瑞士数据科学中心）；ColorfulClouds Technology Co.,Ltd.（ColorfulClouds 技术有限公司）；Graz University of Technology（格拉茨技术大学）；Complexity Science Hub Vienna（维也纳复杂科学中心）；School of Systems Science / Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems Beijing Normal University（系统科学学院/非平衡系统研究所 北京师范大学）；Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research（波茨坦气候影响研究所）
Spatio-temporal dynamics of physical processes are generally modeled using partial differential equations (PDEs). Though the core dynamics follows some principles of physics, real-world physical processes are often driven by unknown external sources. In such cases, developing a purely analytical model becomes very difficult and data-driven modeling can be of assistance. In this paper, we present a hybrid framework combining physics-based numerical models with deep learning for source identification and forecasting of spatio-temporal dynamical systems with unobservable time-varying external sou…
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)（韩国科学技术院）
Traffic forecasting problem remains a challenging task in the intelligent transportation system due to its spatio-temporal complexity. Although temporal dependency has been well studied and discussed, spatial dependency is relatively less explored due to its large variations, especially in the urban environment. In this study, a novel graph convolutional network model, Multi-Weight Traffic Graph Convolutional (MW-TGC) network, is proposed and applied to two urban networks with contrasting geometric constraints. The model conducts graph convolution operations on speed data with multi-weighted a…
Ice storms pose significant damage risk to electric utility infrastructure. In an attempt to improve storm response and minimize costs, energy companies have supported the development of ice accretion forecasting techniques utilizing meteorological output from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The majority of scientific literature in this area focuses on the application of NWP models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to ice storm case studies, but such analyses tend to provide little verification of output fidelity prior to use. This study evaluates the perfor…
Despite the advances in the field of solar energy, improvements of solar forecasting techniques, addressing the intermittent electricity production, remain essential for securing its future integration into a wider energy supply. A promising approach to anticipate irradiance changes consists of modeling the cloud cover dynamics from ground taken or satellite images. This work presents preliminary results on the application of deep Convolutional Neural Networks for 2 to 20 min irradiance forecasting using hemispherical sky images and exogenous variables. We evaluate the models on a set of irrad…
Peking University（北京大学）；Microsoft Research Asia（微软亚洲研究院）
Traffic flow forecasting is of great significance for improving the efficiency of transportation systems and preventing emergencies. Due to the highly non-linearity and intricate evolutionary patterns of short-term and long-term traffic flow, existing methods often fail to take full advantage of spatial-temporal information, especially the various temporal patterns with different period shifting and the characteristics of road segments. Besides, the globality representing the absolute value of traffic status indicators and the locality representing the relative value have not been considered s…
Delhi Technological University（德里理工大学）；École de technologie supérieure（高等技术学院）
Physical systems whose dynamics are governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) find applications in numerous fields, from engineering design to weather forecasting. The process of obtaining the solution from such PDEs may be computationally expensive for large-scale and parameterized problems. In this work, deep learning techniques developed especially for time-series forecasts, such as LSTM and TCN, or for spatial-feature extraction such as CNN, are employed to model the system dynamics for advection dominated problems. These models take as input a sequence of high-fidelity vector solu…
Peking University（北京大学）；Hangzhou Dianzi University（杭州电子科技大学）；Beijing Institute of Big Data Research (BIBDR)（北京大数据研究院）
Spatio-temporal prediction plays an important role in many application areas especially in traffic domain. However, due to complicated spatio-temporal dependency and high non-linear dynamics in road networks, traffic prediction task is still challenging. Existing works either exhibit heavy training cost or fail to accurately capture the spatio-temporal patterns, also ignore the correlation between distant roads that share the similar patterns. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework to overcome these issues: 3D Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (3D-TGCN). Two novel compon…
