arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2008.04216cs.LGcs.CYstat.ML
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在机器学习任务中使用专家意见

Using Experts' Opinions in Machine Learning Tasks

Jafar Habibi, Amir Fazelinia, Issa Annamoradnejad

摘要:

在机器学习任务中,特别是在预测任务中,科学家往往只依赖可用的历史数据,而忽视未经证实的见解,如专家的意见,民意调查和投注赔率。在本文中,我们提出了一个通用的三步框架,利用专家的见解在机器学习任务,并建立四个具体的模型,体育比赛预测的案例研究。对于案例研究,我们选择了预测NCAA男子篮球比赛的任务,这是近年来一组Kaggle比赛的焦点。结果高度表明,过去的模型的良好性能和高分是偶然的结果,而不是因为一个良好的性能和稳定的模型。此外,与2019年竞赛的顶级解决方案(>0.503)相比,我们提出的模型可以实现更稳定的结果,平均日志损失更低(最佳为0.489),并分别在2017年,2018年和2019年排行榜中达到前1%,10%和1%。

英文摘要:

In machine learning tasks, especially in the tasks of prediction, scientists tend to rely solely on available historical data and disregard unproven insights, such as experts' opinions, polls, and betting odds. In this paper, we propose a general three-step framework for utilizing experts' insights in machine learning tasks and build four concrete models for a sports game prediction case study. For the case study, we have chosen the task of predicting NCAA Men's Basketball games, which has been the focus of a group of Kaggle competitions in recent years. Results highly suggest that the good performance and high scores of the past models are a result of chance, and not because of a good-performing and stable model. Furthermore, our proposed models can achieve more steady results with lower log loss average (best at 0.489) compared to the top solutions of the 2019 competition (>0.503), and reach the top 1%, 10% and 1% in the 2017, 2018 and 2019 leaderboards, respectively.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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