arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2008.03589astro-ph.EP
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模拟哈雷彗星流星雨的过去和未来活动

Modeling the past and future activity of the Halleyids meteor showers

Auriane Egal, Paul Wiegert, Peter G. Brown, Margaret Campbell-Brown, Denis Vida

摘要:

我们提出了一个新的数值模式的eta宝瓶座和猎户座流星雨。该模型研究了从1985年到现在的eta-Aquariid和Orionid幽灵的起源,变化和年龄,以便预测它们在未来几十年的活动。通过对数百万个模拟流星体的数值积分和定制的粒子加权方案,我们模拟了1985年至2050年期间每一个宝瓶座和猎户座幽灵的特征。使用35年的流星观测,包括阵雨活动的配置文件和年际变化校准模拟的阵雨。我们的模型再现了现今eta-Aquariids的一般特征,以及Orionid活动的一部分。模拟显示,宝瓶座流星雨的年龄超过5000年,而猎户座流星雨的大部分是由更古老的物质组成的。与木星的1:6平均运动共振在产生一些(但不是全部)哈雷流爆发中起着重要作用。我们发现一致的证据表明,在观测和模拟的猎户座流星雨的最大流星率的周期为11.8年。一个较弱的证据,在10.7年的高峰期活动的eta宝瓶座需要调查与未来的流星观测。将我们的模型扩展到未来几年,预测到2050年不会有显著的猎户座爆发,而在2023年,2024年,2045年和2046年会有四次显著的eta-Aquariid爆发。

英文摘要:

We present a new numerical model of the eta-Aquariid and Orionid meteor showers. The model investigates the origin, variability and age of the eta-Aquariid and Orionid apparitions from 1985 to the present day, in order to forecast their activity over the next several decades. Through the numerical integration of millions of simulated meteoroids and a custom-made particle weighting scheme, we model the characteristics of every eta-Aquariid and Orionid apparition between 1985 and 2050. The modeled showers are calibrated using 35 years of meteor observations including the showers activity profiles and interannual variability. Our model reproduces the general characteristics of the present-day eta-Aquariids, and part of the Orionid activity. Simulations suggest that the age of the eta-Aquariids somewhat exceeds 5000 years, while a greater fraction of the Orionids are composed of older material. The 1:6 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter plays a major role in generating some (but not all) Halleyid stream outbursts. We find consistent evidence for a periodicity of 11.8 years in both the observations and modeled maximum meteor rates for the Orionids. A weaker evidence of a 10.7 year period in the peak activity for the eta-Aquariids needs to be investigated with future meteor observations. The extension of our model to future years predicts no significant Orionid outburst through 2050 and four significant eta-Aquariid outbursts in 2023, 2024, 2045 and 2046.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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