Blackwell approachability is a framework for reasoning about repeated games with vector-valued payoffs. We introduce predictive Blackwell approachability, where an estimate of the next payoff vector is given, and the decision maker tries to achieve better performance based on the accuracy of that estimator. In order to derive algorithms that achieve predictive Blackwell approachability, we start by showing a powerful connection between four well-known algorithms. Follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) and online mirror descent (OMD) are the most prevalent regret minimizers in online convex optimization. In spite of this prevalence, the regret matching (RM) and regret matching+ (RM+) algorithms have been preferred in the practice of solving large-scale games (as the local regret minimizers within the counterfactual regret minimization framework). We show that RM and RM+ are the algorithms that result from running FTRL and OMD, respectively, to select the halfspace to force at all times in the underlying Blackwell approachability game. By applying the predictive variants of FTRL or OMD to this connection, we obtain predictive Blackwell approachability algorithms, as well as predictive variants of RM and RM+. In experiments across 18 common zero-sum extensive-form benchmark games, we show that predictive RM+ coupled with counterfactual regret minimization converges vastly faster than the fastest prior algorithms (CFR+, DCFR, LCFR) across all games but two of the poker games, sometimes by two or more orders of magnitude.
Chicago Booth School of Business（芝加哥大学布斯商学院）；MIT Sloan School of Management（麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
Motivated by online decision-making in time-varying combinatorial environments, we study the problem of transforming offline algorithms to their online counterparts. We focus on offline combinatorial problems that are amenable to a constant factor approximation using a greedy algorithm that is robust to local errors. For such problems, we provide a general framework that efficiently transforms offline robust greedy algorithms to online ones using Blackwell approachability. We show that the resulting online algorithms have $O(\sqrt{T})$ (approximate) regret under the full information setting. W…
The literature on ranking from ordinal data is vast, and there are several ways to aggregate overall preferences from pairwise comparisons between objects. In particular, it is well known that any Nash equilibrium of the zero sum game induced by the preference matrix defines a natural solution concept (winning distribution over objects) known as a von Neumann winner. Many real-world problems, however, are inevitably multi-criteria, with different pairwise preferences governing the different criteria. In this work, we generalize the notion of a von Neumann winner to the multi-criteria setting b…
We consider Blackwell approachability, a very powerful and geometric tool in game theory, used for example to design strategies of the uninformed player in repeated games with incomplete information. We extend this theory to "generalized quitting games" , a class of repeated stochastic games in which each player may have quitting actions, such as the Big-Match. We provide three simple geometric and strongly related conditions for the weak approachability of a convex target set. The first is sufficient: it guarantees that, for any fixed horizon, a player has a strategy ensuring that the expecte…
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Rice University（莱斯大学）
We introduce a simple but general online learning framework in which a learner plays against an adversary in a vector-valued game that changes every round. Even though the learner's objective is not convex-concave (and so the minimax theorem does not apply), we give a simple algorithm that can compete with the setting in which the adversary must announce their action first, with optimally diminishing regret. We demonstrate the power of our framework by using it to (re)derive optimal bounds and efficient algorithms across a variety of domains, ranging from multicalibration to a large set of no …
We develop new parameter-free and scale-free algorithms for solving convex-concave saddle-point problems. Our results are based on a new simple regret minimizer, the Conic Blackwell Algorithm$^+$ (CBA$^+$), which attains $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ average regret. Intuitively, our approach generalizes to other decision sets of interest ideas from the Counterfactual Regret minimization (CFR$^+$) algorithm, which has very strong practical performance for solving sequential games on simplexes. We show how to implement CBA$^+$ for the simplex, $\ell_{p}$ norm balls, and ellipsoidal confidence regions in the s…
Estimating the empirical distribution of a scalar-valued data set is a basic and fundamental task. In this paper, we tackle the problem of estimating an empirical distribution in a setting with two challenging features. First, the algorithm does not directly observe the data; instead, it only asks a limited number of threshold queries about each sample. Second, the data are not assumed to be independent and identically distributed; instead, we allow for an arbitrary process generating the samples, including an adaptive adversary. These considerations are relevant, for example, when modeling a …
