日本COVID-19发病率和死亡率与地方种群密度、温度和绝对湿度之间的相关性
Correlation between COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates in Japan and local population density, temperature and absolute humidity
摘要：
本研究分析了COVID-19大流行在日本不同都道府县的发病率和死亡率。在每日最高确诊死亡人数和每日最高病例数分别应超过4人和10人的限制下，纳入了14个都道府县，并对影响发病率和死亡率的辅助因素进行了评价。特别是，评估了确认的死亡人数，不包括医院感染病例和疗养院患者。发病率与人口密度呈轻度相关（R2=0.394）。此外，老年人占人口的百分比也不容忽视。在天气参数中，最高温度和绝对湿度在持续时间内平均被认为是在适度的相关性与发病率和死亡率，不包括医院感染的情况下。观察到较高温度和绝对湿度的发病率和死亡率较低。考虑到这些因素的多变量分析表明，决定系数的蔓延，衰减，和合并阶段分别为0.708，0.785，和0.615，分别。这些发现可能有助于未来大流行期间的干预计划，包括潜在的第二次COVID-19爆发。
英文摘要：
This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14 prefectures were included, and cofactors affecting the morbidity and mortality rates were evaluated. In particular, the number of confirmed deaths was assessed excluding the cases of nosocomial infections and nursing home patients. A mild correlation was observed between morbidity rate and population density (R2=0.394). In addition, the percentage of the elderly per population was also found to be non-negligible. Among weather parameters, the maximum temperature and absolute humidity averaged over the duration were found to be in modest correlation with the morbidity and mortality rates, excluding the cases of nosocomial infections. The lower morbidity and mortality are observed for higher temperature and absolute humidity. Multivariate analysis considering these factors showed that determination coefficients for the spread, decay, and combined stages were 0.708, 0.785, and 0.615, respectively. These findings could be useful for intervention planning during future pandemics, including a potential second COVID-19 outbreak.
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