绝对湿度、温度和人口密度对COVID-19扩散和衰减持续时间的影响：日本多个都道府县的研究
Influence of Absolute Humidity, Temperature and Population Density on COVID-19 Spread and Decay Durations: Multi-prefecture Study in Japan
摘要：
本研究分析了COVID-19大流行在日本不同都道府县的传播和衰减持续时间。疫情期间，日本普遍提供平价医疗服务，医疗体系并未崩溃，使得能够在都道府县之间进行准确比较。对于纳入本研究的每日最高确诊病例数超过10例的16个都道府县，大多数都道府县的每日确诊病例数遵循钟形或对数正态分布。一个很好的相关性之间的传播和衰减持续时间。但是，在从国外返回的旅行者的地区观察到一些例外，这些地区被定义为感染聚集性的起源地。除这些县外，人口密度是影响传播和衰减模式的主要因素，R2分别为0.39（p<0.05）和0.42（p<0.05），大致对应于社会距离。发现最大绝对湿度影响由种群密度归一化的衰变持续时间（R2>0.36，p <0.05）。我们的研究结果表明，基于最大绝对湿度、环境温度和人口密度的多变量分析（调整后的R2=0.53，p值<0.05），估计的大流行传播持续时间可能被证明对未来潜在大流行（包括第二次COVID-19爆发）的干预计划有用。
英文摘要：
This study analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. During the pandemic, affordable healthcare was widely available in Japan and the medical system did not suffer a collapse, making accurate comparisons between prefectures possible. For the 16 prefectures included in this study that had daily maximum confirmed cases exceeding ten, the number of daily confirmed cases follow bell-shape or log-normal distribution in most prefectures. A good correlation was observed between the spread and decay durations. However, some exceptions were observed in areas where travelers returned from foreign countries, which were defined as the origins of infection clusters. Excluding these prefectures, the population density was shown to be a major factor affecting the spread and decay patterns, with R2=0.39 (p<0.05) and 0.42 (p<0.05), respectively, approximately corresponding to social distancing. The maximum absolute humidity was found to affect the decay duration normalized by the population density (R2>0.36, p <0.05). Our findings indicate that the estimated pandemic spread duration, based on the multivariate analysis of maximum absolute humidity, ambient temperature, and population density (adjusted R2=0.53, p-value<0.05), could prove useful for intervention planning during potential future pandemics, including a second COVID-19 outbreak.
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