历史磁暴期间卫星轨道阻力的估算
Estimating Satellite Orbital Drag During Historical Magnetic Superstorms
摘要：
了解极端空间天气事件对于努力保护空间和地面技术系统至关重要。特别是在热大气层，随后发生的极端磁暴会加剧轨道预测的误差，从而对低地球轨道航天器构成严重威胁。极端磁暴（最小Dst $\leq$ --250 nT）极为罕见：在具有高水平加速计的航天器时代，如CHAMP（挑战微型卫星有效载荷）和GRACE（重力恢复和气候实验），仅发生了7次事件，而最小Dst $\leq$ --500 nT，在此称为磁超级风暴。因此，目前对热层质量密度对超级暴响应的认识是非常有限的。因此，为了推进这一知识，历史上已知的四个磁超级风暴，即，事件发生在CHAMP和GRACE的委员会时间，完整的数据集，用于经验估计密度增强和随后的轨道阻力。2003年11月的磁暴（最小Dst = --422 nT），这两颗卫星观测到的最极端的事件，被用作基准事件。结果表明，正如预期的那样，最强烈的风暴的轨道退化更为严重。此外，结果清楚地指出，风暴的持续时间与风暴时间的轨道阻力效应密切相关，与风暴强度本身一样重要，甚至更重要。为1989年3月磁超级风暴估计的CHAMP/GRACE类样本卫星轨道期间最极端的风暴时间衰减表明，持久的超级风暴可能对低地轨道卫星的轨道动力学产生非常有害的后果。
英文摘要：
Understanding extreme space weather events is of paramount importance in efforts to protect technological systems in space and on the ground. Particularly in the thermosphere, the subsequent extreme magnetic storms can pose serious threats to low-Earth orbit (LEO) spacecraft by intensifying errors in orbit predictions. Extreme magnetic storms (minimum Dst $\leq$ --250 nT) are extremely rare: only 7 events occurred during the era of spacecraft with high-level accelerometers such as CHAMP (CHAllenge Mini-satellite Payload) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate experiment), and none with minimum Dst $\leq$ --500 nT, here termed magnetic superstorms. Therefore, current knowledge of thermospheric mass density response to superstorms is very limited. Thus, in order to advance this knowledge, four known magnetic superstorms in history, i.e., events occurring before CHAMP's and GRACE's commission times, with complete datasets, are used to empirically estimate density enhancements and subsequent orbital drag. The November 2003 magnetic storm (minimum Dst = --422 nT), the most extreme event observed by both satellites, is used as the benchmark event. Results show that, as expected, orbital degradation is more severe for the most intense storms. Additionally, results clearly point out that the time duration of the storm is strongly associated with storm-time orbital drag effects, being as important as or even more important than storm intensity itself. The most extreme storm-time decays during CHAMP/GRACE-like sample satellite orbits estimated for the March 1989 magnetic superstorm show that long-lasting superstorms can have highly detrimental consequences for the orbital dynamics of satellites in LEO.
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