It is paramount from both scientific and societal perspectives to understand the generation of extreme space weather. We discuss the formation of solar superstorms based on a comparative study of the 2012 July 23 and 2017 July 23 eruptions. The first one is Carrington-class, and the second could rival the 1989 March event that caused the most intense geomagnetic storm of the space age. Observations of these events in the historically weak solar cycle 24 indicate that a solar superstorm can occur in any solar cycle and at any phase of the cycle. Recurrent patterns are identified in both cases, including the long-lived eruptive nature of the active region, a complex event composed of successive eruptions from the same active region, and in-transit interaction between the successive eruptions resulting in exceptionally strong ejecta magnetic fields at 1 AU. Each case also shows unique characteristics. Preconditioning of the upstream solar wind leading to unusually high solar wind speeds at 1 AU is observed in the first case whereas not in the latter. This may suggest that the concept of "preconditioning" appears to be necessary for making a Carrington-class storm. We find a considerable deflection by nearby coronal holes in the second case but not in the first. On the basis of these results, we propose a hypothesis for further investigation that superstorms are "perfect storms" in nature, i.e., a combination of circumstances that results in an event of unusual magnitude. Historical records of some extreme events seem to support our hypothesis.
The importance of the investigation of magnetic superstorms is not limited to academic interest, because these superstorms can cause catastrophic impact on the modern civilisation due to our increasing dependency on technological infrastructure. In this context, the Carrington storm in September 1859 is considered as a benchmark of observational history owing to its magnetic disturbance and equatorial extent of the auroral oval. So far, several recent auroral reports at that time have been published but those reports are mainly derived from the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we analyse da…
We study the solar energetic particle (SEP) event associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme solar storm, for which STEREO and the spacecraft at L1 provide multi-point remote sensing and in situ observations. The extreme solar storm, with a superfast shock and extremely enhanced ejecta magnetic fields observed near 1 AU at STEREO A, was caused by the combination of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Meanwhile, energetic particles were observed by STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft such as ACE and SOHO, suggestive of a wide longitudinal spread of the particles at 1 AU. Combining the SEP obse…
We examine the structure, propagation and expansion of the shock associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme coronal mass ejection (CME). Characteristics of the shock determined from multi-point imaging observations are compared to in situ measurements at different locations and a complex radio type II burst, which according to our definition has multiple branches that may not all be fundamental-harmonic related. The white-light shock signature can be modeled reasonably well by a spherical structure and was expanding backward even on the opposite side of the Sun. The expansion of the shock, which…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can trigger geomagnetic storms and induce geoelectric currents that degrade the performance of terrestrial power grid operations; in particular, CMEs are known for causing large-scale outages in electrical grids. Submarine internet cables are powered through copper conductors spanning thousands of kilometers and are vulnerable to damage from CMEs, raising the possibility of a large-scale and long-lived internet outage. To better understand the magnitude of these risks, we monitor voltage changes in the cable power supply of four different transoceanic cables durin…
We model the energetic storm particle (ESP) event of 14 July 2012 using the energetic particle acceleration and transport model named PARADISE, together with the solar wind and coronal mass ejection (CME) model named EUHFORIA. The simulation results illustrate both the capabilities and limitations of the utilised models. We show that the models capture some essential structural features of the ESP event; however, for some aspects the simulations and observations diverge. We describe and, to some extent, assess the sources of errors in the modelling chain of EUHFORIA and PARADISE and discuss ho…
The Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing (ANMODAP) Center recorded an unusual Forbush decrease with a sharp enhancement of cosmic ray intensity right after the main phase of the Forbush decrease on 16 July 2005, followed by a second decrease within less than 12 h. This exceptional event is neither a ground level enhancement nor a geomagnetic effect in cosmic rays. It rather appears as the effect of a special structure of interplanetary disturbances originating from a group of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the 13-14 July 2005 period. The initiation of the CMEs was accompanied by type IV ra…
This is the first of four companion papers, which analyze a complex eruptive event of 18 November 2003 in AR 10501 and the causes of the largest Solar Cycle 23 geomagnetic storm on 20 November 2003. Analysis of a complete data set, not considered before, reveals a chain of eruptions to which hard X-ray and microwave bursts responded. A filament in AR 10501 was not a passive part of a larger flux rope, as usually considered. The filament erupted and gave origin to a CME. The chain of events was as follows: i) an eruption at 07:29 accompanied by a not reported M1.2 class flare associated with th…
Solar eruptions are the main driver of space-weather disturbances at the Earth. Extreme events are of particular interest, not only because of the scientific challenges they pose, but also because of their possible societal consequences. Here we present a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the 14 July 2000 Bastille Day eruption, which produced a very strong geomagnetic storm. After constructing a thermodynamic MHD model of the corona and solar wind, we insert a magnetically stable flux rope along the polarity inversion line of the eruption's source region and initiate the eruption by boun…
The backside coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 July 23 had a short Sun to Earth shock transit time (18.5 hours). The associated solar energetic particle (SEP) event had a >10 MeV proton flux peaking at ~5000 pfu, and the energetic storm particle (ESP) event was an order of magnitude larger, making it the most intense event in the space era at these energies. By a detailed analysis of the CME, shock, and SEP characteristics, we find that the July 23 event is consistent with a high-energy SEP event (accelerating particles to GeV energies). The time of maximum and fluence spectra in the range 1…
This paper presents an overview of results obtained during the CAWSES II period on the short term variability of the Sun and how it affects the near Earth space environment. CAWSES II was planned to examine the behavior of the solar terrestrial system as the solar activity climbed to its maximum phase in solar cycle 24. After a deep minimum following cycle 23, the Sun climbed to a very weak maximum in terms of the sunspot number in cycle 24 (MiniMax24), so many of the results presented here refer to this weak activity in comparison with cycle 23. The short term variability that has immediate c…
Type-I bursts (i.e. noise storms) are the earliest-known type of solar radio emission at the metre wavelength. They are believed to be excited by non-thermal energetic electrons accelerated in the corona. The underlying dynamic process and exact emission mechanism still remain unresolved. Here, with a combined analysis of extreme ultraviolet (EUV), radio and photospheric magnetic field data of unprecedented quality recorded during a type-I storm on 30 July 2011, we identify a good correlation between the radio bursts and the co-spatial EUV and magnetic activities. The EUV activities manifest t…
In this paper, we address the formation of a magnetic flux rope (MFR) that erupted on 2012 July 12 and caused a strong geomagnetic storm event on July 15. Through analyzing the long-term evolution of the associated active region observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, it is found that the twisted field of an MFR, indicated by a continuous S-shaped sigmoid, is built up from two groups of sheared arcades near the main polarity inversion line half day before the eruption. The temperature within the twisted fiel…
The space weather is extremely mild during solar cycle 24: the number of major geomagnetic storms and high-energy solar energetic particle events are at the lowest since the dawn of the space age. Solar wind measurements at 1 AU using Wind and ACE instruments have shown that there is a significant drop in the density, magnetic field, total pressure, and Alfven speed in the inner heliosphere as a result of the low solar activity. The drop in large space weather events is disproportionately high because the number of energetic coronal mass ejections that cause these events has not decreased sign…
