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arXiv 2007.10574physics.ao-ph
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Madden Julian振荡对印度尼西亚极端降水的影响

Impacts of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Precipitation Extremes in Indonesia

Fadhlil R. Muhammad, Sandro W. Lubis, Sonni Setiawan

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18 pages, 8 figures
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摘要：

利用1987年至2017年的逐日站雨量计数据和网格化亚洲降水高分辨率观测数据集成评估水资源（APHRODITE），评估了马登朱利安振荡（MJO）对印度尼西亚雨季（10月至4月）降水极端事件的影响。结果表明，MJO显着调制在印度尼西亚的极端降水事件的频率，不同地区的影响程度不同。具体而言，对流活跃（抑制）MJO增加（减少）的概率极端降水事件的西部和中部地区的印度尼西亚高达70%（40%）。在印度尼西亚东部，MJO增加（减少）极端降水概率高达50%（40%）。我们把极端降水事件概率的差异归因于MJO引起的水平水汽通量辐合的变化。结果表明，MJO提供了在印度尼西亚的每日极端降水的可预测性的来源。

英文摘要：

The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the precipitation extremes in Indonesia during the rainy season (October to April) has been evaluated using the daily station rain gauge data and the gridded Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) from 1987 to 2017 for different phases of the MJO. The results show that MJO significantly modulates the frequency of extreme precipitation events in Indonesia, with the magnitude of the impact varying across regions. Specifically, the convectively active (suppressed) MJO increases (decreases) the probability of extreme precipitation events over the western and central parts of Indonesia by up to 70% (40%). In the eastern part of Indonesia, MJO increases (decreases) extreme precipitation probability by up to 50% (40%). We attribute the differences in the probability of extreme precipitation events to the changes in the horizontal moisture flux convergence induced by MJO. The results indicate that the MJO provides the source of predictability of daily extreme precipitation in Indonesia.

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