一类疾病传播模型的构造
Initialization of a Disease Transmission Model
摘要：
提出并评估了根据现有数据和简化动力学模型计算瑞典COVID-19传播的大型流行病学模型在初始时刻的全状态向量的方法。更大的流行病学模型是基于一个连续的马尔可夫链，并捕捉人口组成和瑞典各县之间的交通流量。其预期用途是在时间和空间坐标以及在人口群体中预测疫情发展。它还可以支持在某些地区的封锁或特定年龄组的隔离方面对前瞻性干预战略进行评估和比较。简化模型是一个离散的时不变线性系统，其状态变量为累积传染率、感染人口、无症状人口、暴露人口和传染压力。由于系统矩阵的模型依赖于一个数量的过渡率，结构特性的模型进行了研究，为适当的参数范围。它的结论是，该模型变得不可观察的某些参数值。两个对比的方法来考虑初始状态估计。一个是一个版本的Rauch-Tung-Striebel平滑，另一个是基于解决一批非线性优化问题。所考虑的估计技术的优点和缺点进行了分析和比较的合成数据为几个瑞典县。
英文摘要：
Approaches to the calculation of the full state vector of a larger epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19 in Sweden at the initial time instant from available data and with a simplified dynamical model are proposed and evaluated. The larger epidemiological model is based on a continuous Markov chain and captures the demographic composition of and the transport flows between the counties of Sweden. Its intended use is to predict the outbreak development in temporal and spatial coordinates as well as across the demographic groups. It can also support evaluating and comparing of prospective intervention strategies in terms of e.g. lockdown in certain areas or isolation of specific age groups. The simplified model is a discrete time-invariant linear system that has cumulative infectious incidence, infected population, asymptomatic population, exposed population, and infectious pressure as the state variables. Since the system matrix of the model depends on a number transition rates, structural properties of the model are investigated for suitable parameter ranges. It is concluded that the model becomes unobservable for some parameter values. Two contrasting approaches to the initial state estimation are considered. One is a version of Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother and another is based on solving a batch nonlinear optimization problem. The benefits and shortcomings of the considered estimation techniques are analyzed and compared on synthetic data for several Swedish counties.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
